Sample Category Title

USD/CHF - 0.9965

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9969

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9951

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9970

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9956

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback found support at 0.9922 late last week and has recovered, reckon upside would be limited to 0.9995-1.0000 and price should falter below 1.0020, bring another decline later, below 0.9920-22 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9737-1.0038)  would extend the erratic decline from 1.1038 top to 0.9885-90 (50% Fibonacci retracement) but reckon support at 0.9869 should remain intact, bring rebound later.

In view of this, we are looking to sell dollar on recovery as 1.0000 should limit upside. Only break of said resistance at 1.0038 would revive bullishness and confirm the rise from 0.9421 low has resumed and extend further gain to 1.0050-55, then towards 1.0075-80 but price should falter below 1.0100 chart resistance.

GBP/USD - 1.3119

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.3146

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.3169

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.3135

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.3130

Original strategy :

Bought at 1.3170, stopped at 1.3135

Position : - Long at 1.3170

Target :  -

Stop : - 1.3135

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite rising briefly to 1.3230 on Friday, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat suggest further choppy trading would be seen and weakness towards support at 1.3085 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to revive bearishness and signal the rebound from 1.3039 has ended, bring weakness to 1.3050-55, then towards strong support area at 1.3027-39.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3169) would prolong choppy trading and bring recovery to 1.3200 but said resistance at 1.3230 would hold from here, bring further consolidation. Above said resistance at 1.3230 would extend the erratic rise from 1.3039 to 1.3250, then 1.3275-80.

EUR/USD - 1.1651

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1655

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1651

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1634

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1617

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.1600, Target: 1.1700, Stop: 1.1565

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.1600, Target: 1.1700, Stop: 1.1565

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has eased after surging to 1.1678, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.1615-20 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.1600 and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.1678 would extend the rise from 1.1554 low to 1.1691-96 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1837-1.1554) but reckon upside would be limited to 1.1725-29 (previous support now resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring retreat later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on pullback as 1.1600 should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Below 1.1625-30 would bring weakness to 1.1600, however, downside should be limited and bring another rebound. Below 1.1575-80 would defer and risk a retest of this week’s low at 1.1554 first.

The British pound has slipped lower against the U.S dollar in early Monday trading, hitting 1.3106, as UK political uncertainty hurts GBPUSD trading sentiment. The pair is currently trading around the 1.3120 level, after news over the weekend showed that UK Prime Minister Theresa May's leadership is again being questioned, as forty members of the Conservative Party signed a no-confidence letter against her. Sterling traders are likely to remain cautious, ahead of key Inflation figures being released from the UK economy on Tuesday.

The GBPUSD pair is likely to remain intraday bearish while trading beneath the 1.3130 technical level. Further intraday declines towards 1.3109 and 1.3058 levels seem probable.

Should price-action move above the 1.3130 technical level, further upside toward the 1.3168 and 1.3200 levels seems likely.

The euro has opened the new trading week above key technical support against the U.S dollar, as the U.S corporate tax reform delay continues to drive financial market sentiment. The EURUSD pair trades around the 1.1655 level, as the U.S dollar index remains under selling pressure. Traders will take cues from the next move in stocks and the U.S dollar index, with no-less than six Federal Reserve Presidents speaking over the coming twenty-four hours.

The EURUSD pair remains intraday bullish while trading above the 1.1640 level, further upside towards the 1.1676 and 1.1710 resistance levels seems likely.

Should price-action decline below the 1.1640 technical level, further downside towards the 1.1610 and 1.1573 support levels remains likely.

USD/JPY - 113.44

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 113.55

Kijun-Sen level                  : 113.47

Ichimoku cloud top             : 113.58

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 113.48

Original strategy  :

Sold at 114.00, Target: 113.00, Stop: 113.70

Position :  - Short at 114.00

Target :  - 113.00

Stop : - 113.70

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 114.00, Target: 113.00, Stop: 113.70

Position :  - Short at 114.00

Target :  - 113.00

Stop : - 113.70

Although the greenback recovered after holding above last week’s low at 113.09 and further consolidation would be seen, reckon upside would be limited to 113.65-70 and bring another decline later, below 113.20-25 would bring retest of said support at 113.09, break there would extend the fall from 114.74 top to previous support at 112.96, below there would bring further subsequent selloff to 112.60 but support at 112.30 should hold from here due to near term oversold condition.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 114.00. Only above resistance at 114.07 would abort and signal the retreat from 114.74 has ended instead, bring a stronger rebound to 114.34, then retest of this level, above there would revive bullishness and extend recent rise from 107.32 to 115.00.

A dearth of economic data on Monday will keep many traders on the sidelines in anticipation of more worthwhile events later in the week.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is the only noteworthy headline on Monday. Kuroda will be covering “Current Issues of Monetary Policy” at the University of Zurich. The speech is scheduled to occur at 17:45 GMT.

The BOJ has maintained a highly accommodative policy stance under the guidance of Kuroda and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who recently secured another full term in office. Abe's “three arrows” of fiscal stimulus, loose monetary policy and structure reform appear to be paying off. The Japanese economy has expanded for six straight quarters, which is the longest stretch of uninterrupted growth in more than a decade.

In terms of economic data, a report on Japanese machine tool orders was also under consideration early Monday.

No major European releases made headlines.

In the United States, the Financial Management Service will issue its monthly budget statement for October. The monthly report, which summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, is expected to show a deficit of $50 billion. The budget statement showed a surplus of $8 billion the month before.

All eyes will be on the US dollar this week after the currency fell from three-month highs. The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.2% to 94.53 on Monday.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY cross edged higher at the start of the week, gaining 0.1% to 113.65. The pair has been involved in a series of choppy trades in recent weeks, but continues to trade north of 113.00. Immediate resistance is likely found at the psychological 1.1400 level, which also represents the top of an ascending trendline. A clear break above this level would push the RSI into bullish territory, setting the stage for a possible re-test of the 27 October high near 114.50.

EUR/USD

Europe's common currency was little changed against the dollar on Monday, with the EUR/USD continuing to trade in the mid-1.1600 region. The EUR/USD faces immediate support at 1.1620, followed by 1.1590 and 1.1550. On the opposite side of the spectrum, resistance is likely found at 1.1690, followed by 1.1720 and 1.1750. The pair will get plenty of action this week in the form of all-important economic data.

GBP/USD

Cable suffered swift declines on Monday, with prices fast approaching 1.3100. The GBP/USD exchange rate was last down 0.5% at 1.3121. It continues to hold above 1.3100, but that might not be for very long. Pound sterling is suffering from political pressure tied to the Conservative party's letter of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.01; (P) 149.50; (R1) 150.17; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this moment. Overall, it's bounded in consolidation pattern from 152.82. Break of 148.42 support will start the third leg and target 146.92 and below. But we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 151.92 will retest 152.82 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.04; (P) 132.29; (R1) 132.63; More....

Intraday bias in EUR?JPY remains neutral at this moment. On the upside, decisive break of 134.39/48 resistance zone is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, even in case of rebound, near term outlook is neutral at best. On the downside, decisive break of 131.65 will confirm rejection from 134.20 fibonacci level and confirm near term reversal. And, in such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 127.55 key support level.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8810; (P) 0.8842; (R1) 0.8873; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. With 0.9032 resistance intact, deeper decline is mildly in favor in the cross. Break of 0.8732 will resume the decline from 0.9305 and target 0.8303 key support level. However, on the upside, decisive break of 0.9032 will confirm completion of the decline from 0.9305. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.9305 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.