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Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.33; (P) 150.01; (R1) 150.66; More...

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 148.64 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further fall is in favor as long as 151.94 resistance holds. On the downside, below 148.64 will strengthen the case that rise from 139.57 has already completed at 156.754. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 156.74 at 146.12 next. Nevertheless, firm break of 151.94 resistance will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 156.74 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8743; (P) 0.8781; (R1) 0.8825; More…

Breach of 0.8796 support turned resistance suggests that USD/CHF's corrective pullback from has completed at after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 0.8738). Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.8956 high. However, considering head and shoulder top pattern, firm break of the EMA will argue that whole rise from 0.8401 might have completed, and bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 0.8401 to 0.8956 at 0.8613 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.8374 as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0530; (P) 1.0580; (R1) 1.0618; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral again with current retreat. Rebound from 1.0330 short term bottom could still extend higher. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0717) holds. On the downside, break of 1.0471 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0330 low. Firm break of 1.0330 will resumed the decline from 1.1213, and sustained trading below 1.0404 key fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404. Strong rebound from this level will keep price actions from 1.1273 (2023 high) as a medium term consolidation pattern only. However, sustained break of 1.0404 will raise the chance that whole up trend from 0.9534 has reversed. That would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.0199 first. Firm break there will target 0.9534 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2704; (P) 1.2758; (R1) 1.2793; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral again with current retreat. Rebound from 1.2486 short term bottom could still extend higher. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.2846) holds. On the downside, below 1.2615 minor support will bring retest of 1.2486 first. Firm break there will target 1.2298 cluster support zone. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that the near term trend has reversed, and targets 1.3047 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 medium term are seen as correcting whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. But strong support is expected there to bring rebound to extend the corrective pattern.

Dollar and Yen saw modest recoveries in Asian session, driven by the cautious tone in financial markets as traders positioned themselves ahead of a crucial week for economic data and central bank announcements. Risk sentiment was subdued, with equities weakening on concerns over weaker inflation data from China. Adding to the caution, Fitch Ratings downgraded its growth forecasts for China for 2025 and 2026, citing risks from US tariffs and persistent domestic economic weaknesses.

In South Korea, political uncertainty has further weighed on investor sentiment. President Yoon Suk Yeol survived an impeachment vote over the weekend but faces mounting calls for resignation from within his own People Power Party. Yoon is also reported to be under criminal investigation for charges of treason and abuse of power related to his brief imposition of martial law last week. The turmoil has dragged KOSPI to its lowest level in over a year, exacerbating regional market jitters.

Looking ahead, the week’s major highlights include rate decisions from the RBA, BoC SNB, and ECB, alongside the pivotal release of US CPI data on Wednesday. With expectations of significant central bank action and economic data releases, volatility across forex markets is anticipated.

A focal point will be the performance of EUR/CHF, as traders assess the relative dovishness of ECB and SNB. Both central banks are expected to cut rates, but any dovish surprises from the ECB, particularly in its updated economic projections, could weigh heavily on Euro.

Technically, EUR/CHF staged a quick rebound after diving through 0.9209 key support back in November, but lacked follow through momentum for rally beyond 0.93 mark. The down trend from 0.9928 remains in force with the cross staying well clear of falling 55 D EMA. Any extra dovishness in this week's ECB meeting, particular around the new economic projections, would drive EUR/CHF for at least a retest of 0.9209 low.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.10%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.58%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.22%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.11%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0084 at 1.045.

China's CPI falls to 0.2% yoy in Nov, PPI down -2.5% yoy, deflation pressures persist

China's CPI decelerated from 0.3% yoy to 0.2% yoy in November, below market expectations of 0.5% yoy, and marking its lowest level in five months. Persistent deflationary pressures highlight the urgency for stronger fiscal measures to reinvigorate the economy.

Food prices was the primary driver of inflation, surging by 1% yoy, with notable increases in vegetable and pork prices at 10% yoy and 13.7% yoy, respectively. However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged up only marginally to 0.3% yoy from 0.2% yoy.

Meanwhile, PPI improved, registering a -2.5% yoy decline in November compared to -2.9% in October, beating expectations of -2.9% yoy. While this marked the 26th consecutive month of negative readings, the moderation was attributed to a combination of existing and incremental policy measures alongside a recovery in domestic demand for industrial goods.

RBA hold, ECB and SNB cut, plus US CPI

This week’s financial calendar is packed four central bank meetings from RBA, BoC, SNB, and ECB, alongside key economic data such as US CPI, UK GDP, Japan’s Tankan survey, and Australia’s employment report.

RBA is widely anticipated to leave its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. October’s monthly CPI held steady at 2.1%, a welcome development for policymakers concerned about resurgence in inflation pressures. However, with trimmed mean CPI jumping from 3.2% to 3.5%, there is no immediate catalyst for RBA to shift its cautious stance.

The decision for RBA to commence policy easing cycle would hinge on the upcoming quarterly CPI data for Q4, due in late January. By the February meeting, RBA will have a clearer picture of inflation trends and updated economic projections.

This week’s Australian employment report will also be critical, as RBA has consistently flagged tight labor market conditions as a significant obstacle to achieving disinflation.

BoC is widely expected to continue with aggressive policy easing, with another 50bps rate cut to 3.25%. Recent data indicated that unemployment rate spiked to an 8-year high (outside of the pandemic period) of 6.8^ in November. This at the same time inflation, including headline and core measures, were relatively steady at or be slightly above 2%. There is enough room for BoC to expedite interest rate to neutral. The key going forward is whether there is any indication on where the terminal rate would be.

SNB is likely to cut its policy rate, but the magnitude remains uncertain—either 25bps or a more aggressive 50bps. November inflation ticked up slightly to 0.7% but remains muted, while growth continues to lag due to weak demand from neighboring economies. A 25bps cut seems more probable, especially with ECB leaning toward a modest 25bps reduction rather than a 50bps move. SNB might prefer to conserve its monetary ammunition to counter any upward pressure on the Swiss Franc if ECB accelerates its easing pace later.

ECB faces a similarly delicate balancing act. While a 25bps cut to the deposit rate to 3.00% is broadly expected, since recent commentary suggests a 50bps move is unlikely to gain majority support. ECB is expected to reiterate its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Nevertheless, the new economic projections may reveal how much downside risks are there for growth and inflation in 2025, providing hints about the urgency—or lack thereof—behind more aggressive easing measures.

In the US, November CPI report is the centerpiece of the economic docket. Headline inflation is expected to inch up from 2.6% to 2.7%, with core inflation holding steady at 3.3%. Such results, barring a significant upside surprise, are unlikely to prevent Fed from delivering a 25bps rate cut at its December meeting. However, the sticky steady inflation figures would strengthen the argument for a pause in January. That would also offer Fed an opportunity to assess the economic impact of the incoming administration’s policies.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Japan GDP final; China CPI, PPI; Swiss SECO consumer climate; Eurozone Sentix investor confidence.
• Tuesday: RBA rate decision, Australia NAB business confidence; China trade balance; Germany CPI final; US NFIB small business index.
• Wednesday: New Zealand manufacturing sales; Japan BSI manufacturing index, PPI; US CPI; BoC rate decision.
• Thursday: Australia employment; SNB rate decision; ECB rate decision; Canada building permits; US PPI.
• Friday: New Zealand BNZ manufacturing; Japan Tankan survey; Germany trade balance; UK GDP, production, trade balance; Eurozone industrial production; Canada manufacturing sales, wholesale sales; US import prices.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2704; (P) 1.2758; (R1) 1.2793; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral again with current retreat. Rebound from 1.2486 short term bottom could still extend higher. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.2846) holds. On the downside, below 1.2615 minor support will bring retest of 1.2486 first. Firm break there will target 1.2298 cluster support zone. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that the near term trend has reversed, and targets 1.3047 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 medium term are seen as correcting whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. But strong support is expected there to bring rebound to extend the corrective pattern.

China's CPI decelerated from 0.3% yoy to 0.2% yoy in November, below market expectations of 0.5% yoy, and marking its lowest level in five months. Persistent deflationary pressures highlight the urgency for stronger fiscal measures to reinvigorate the economy.

Food prices was the primary driver of inflation, surging by 1% yoy, with notable increases in vegetable and pork prices at 10% yoy and 13.7% yoy, respectively. However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged up only marginally to 0.3% yoy from 0.2% yoy.

Meanwhile, PPI improved, registering a -2.5% yoy decline in November compared to -2.9% in October, beating expectations of -2.9% yoy. While this marked the 26th consecutive month of negative readings, the moderation was attributed to a combination of existing and incremental policy measures alongside a recovery in domestic demand for industrial goods.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0520 resistance zone.
• A key rising channel is forming with support near 1.0500 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is attempting to recover above the 1.2750 resistance zone.
• Crude Oil prices are again moving lower and might decline below $66.50.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a recovery wave above the 1.0450 and 1.0500 levels against the US Dollar. EUR/USD climbed above 1.0520 to move into a short-term positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair surpassed the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0936 swing high to the 1.0333 low. The pair recovered above the 1.0600 resistance level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.0635 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0936 swing high to the 1.0333 low.

The first major resistance is near the 1.0665 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A close above the 1.0665 level could set the tone for another increase. The next major resistance could be the 1.0800 level, above which the price could climb higher toward the 1.0880 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.0520 level. The next key support sits near the 1.0450 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.0420 level.

Looking at Oil, the bears remained in action below the $72.50 resistance, and they might aim for a drop below $65.00 in the near term.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• US Wholesale Inventories for Feb 2024 (preliminary) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.2% previous.

In this article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Bitcoin BTCUSD published in members area of the website. As our members know BTCUSD is showing impulsive bullish sequences in the cycle from the 52598 low , that are calling for a further strength. Recently we got a pull back that has ended at the Blue Box zone,our buying area. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Forecast and trading setup.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 11.04.2024

BTCUSD is giving us correction that is unfolding as a Elliott Wave Double Three pattern. At the moment structure is still incomplete. Pull back shows lower low sequences. Bitcoin can see more downside toward 66813-63855 blue box ( buying zone). We don’t recommend selling Bitcoin and prefer the long side. From the marked zone, BTCUSD should ideally make either rally toward new highs or in 3 waves bounce alternatively. Once bounce reaches 50 Fibs against the ((x)) black high , we will make long position risk free ( put SL at BE) and take partial profits.

Quick reminder on how to trade our charts :

Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Selling Setup
Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Buying Setup
Charts with Black stamps are not tradable. 🚫

Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 11.06.2024

BTCUSD made an extension toward our buying zone: 66,813–63,855. The crypto found buyers at the Blue Box as expected, and we got a good reaction from there. Bitcoin made an impulsive rally that broke to new highs. As a result, traders who entered long positions are now enjoying risk-free profits. With the price holding above the 66,797 low, we expect further strength to follow.

Dear traders, before you sign up, reach out to our sales department at vlada@elliottwave-forecast.com. We’ll make sure you’re getting the best deal possible with exclusive discounts and offers. Don’t hesitate—send us an email and let’s get you some savings

Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 12.05.2024

One month later, we can see that Bitcoin made further gains, just like we expected. The price kept pushing higher, breaking through key resistance levels and reaching new highs. Traders who stuck with their long positions are now enjoying solid profits. The strength we’re seeing now suggests that there could be even more upside ahead.

• WTI crude oil broke support zone
• Likely to fall to support levels 66.6 and 66.00

WTI crude oil today broke the support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 67.60 and the support trendline of the daily Triangle from September.

The breakout of this support zone should add to the bearish pressure on WTI crude oil in the coming trading sessions.

Given the strong multi-month downtrend, WTI crude oil can be expected to fall toward the next support levels 66.6 and 66.00.

• EURCAD broke resistance zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.5000

EURCAD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone located between the resistance level 1.4865 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of November) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse wave C.

The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (C).

Given the clear daily uptrend and the strongly bearish CAD sentiment seen today, EURCAD currency pair can be expected to rise toward the next round resistance level 1.5000.