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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3610; (P) 1.3635; (R1) 1.3679; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.3732 will suggest that pullback from 1.3867 has completed as a correction at 1.3507. Retest of 1.3867 should be seen first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend towards 1.4284 key resistance. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3511) will raise the chance of larger scale correction, and target 1.3342 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) still in progress and should target 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3008 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7656; (P) 0.7688; (R1) 0.7707; More….

USD/CHF is extending the consolidations pattern from 0.7603 and intraday bias stays neutral. Stronger rebound cannot be ruled out but upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7855) to complete the pattern. On the downside, break of 0.7603 will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7046; (P) 0.7072; (R1) 0.7100; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.7146 short term top. Deeper retreat might be seen but downside should be contained above 0.6896 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 0.7146 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3595; (P) 1.3617; (R1) 1.3639; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment, and consolidations pattern from 1.3480 could extend further. While stronger rebound cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3747) to complete the pattern. On the downside, firm break of 1.3480 will resume larger down trend from 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 207.82; (P) 208.58; (R1) 209.28; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral with immediate focus on 38.2% retracement of 197.47 to 214.98 at 208.29. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 208.29 will suggest that larger scale correction is already underway and target 203.27 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 210.47 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 214.83/98 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, considering the break of 55 D EMA (now at 209.88), a medium term top could be formed at 214.98. Deeper correction would be seen, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. On the upside, break of 214.98 will resume larger up trend from from 123.94 (2020 low), and target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 180.82; (P) 181.55; (R1) 181.97; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral with immediate focus on 38.2% retracement of 172.24 to 186.86 at 181.27. On the downside, sustained break of 181.27 will argue that fall from 186.86 is correcting whole up trend from 154.77. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection of 186.86 to 181.76 from 186.22 at 177.96. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 182.99 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 186.86 high first.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD and break of 55 D EMA (now at 182.64), a medium term top could be formed at 186.86 already. Deeper correction would be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 186.86 at 174.60 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 186.86 will resume larger up trend to 78.6% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8682; (P) 0.8702; (R1) 0.8713; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8744 resistance will indicate that fall from 0.8863 has completed as a correction. Further rally should then be seen back to retest 0.8863 high. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618 will carry larger bearish implications and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8631) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6658; (P) 1.6708; (R1) 1.6793; More...

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidations above 1.6620 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.7060 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 16620 will resume larger down trend from 1.8554 to 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 next. However, firm break of 1.7060 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Last week was a week of sweet economic data from the US – or almost.

The jobs market rebounded with 130K new jobs added in January – after a morose 2025 during which the US economy added around 181K jobs for the entire year. That makes roughly 15K job additions per month – and that is weak.

Retail sales were weaker than expected and pointed to a widening spending gap between wealthy and lower-income Americans.

But then Friday’s inflation data showed that headline inflation eased to 2.4% – the slowest since last June – while core inflation fell back to 2.5%, a level last seen in 2021.

The data was mixed but gave some breathing room to markets, as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations counterbalanced AI-related fears.

The US 2-year yield fell to 3.40% – the lowest since October – as the probability of a Fed rate cut rose to 70%. The US dollar remained under downside pressure on Friday. The greenback is better bid this morning in Asia, but the dovish Fed outlook should keep the dollar under pressure. It’s just that softer-than-expected growth data from Japan this morning is weighing on the Japanese yen after a five-session winning streak, which in turn makes the US dollar look stronger.

Gold, on the other hand, kicks off the week with a move below the $5’000 level. Part of it is due to a marginally stronger US dollar; some argue that softer US inflation is taking pressure off the yellow metal – traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation – but I believe that, given gold’s high correlation with risky assets over the past few weeks, a retreat in gold could be a sign that appetite across risk assets remains weak this Monday morning.

The Nikkei is down 1%, the Kospi is consolidating gains near a record high, while US and European equity futures trade slightly higher, with FTSE futures leading gains at the time of writing.

This week, I expect further capital inflows into the European defence sector, as the weekend’s security talks among Western allies were marked by two notable points:

1. The highest US representative was not present.
2. The German Chancellor stated that Germany and France are not in talks on nuclear deterrence.

Given how strongly Europeans have relied on the US for the continent’s security, the gap left by US disengagement must be filled, and quickly. Hence, European defence stocks will likely continue to benefit from solid inflows.

What is less clear is what will happen across technology stocks.

One of the most notable moves following Friday’s US inflation data was the divergence between tech and the rest of the market. Falling yields helped lift sentiment in many sectors but failed to cheer up Big Tech.

The Magnificent 7 extended losses by almost 1%. The S&P500 was flat, but the equal-weighted version of the index – where all companies carry the same weight – rebounded 1%. In simpler terms: rising dovish Fed expectations reinforced the rotation trade.

Elsewhere, software stocks took a breather after a catastrophic week, but appetite there remains very fragile.

Overall, Friday’s post-CPI relief was welcome, but the fundamental concerns keeping investors awake at night remain unchanged. Appetite for Big Tech continues to wane: massive – and increasingly leveraged – AI spending casts a shadow over otherwise solid Q4 results. These companies carry significant weight in major US indices – the Magnificent 7 account for roughly a third of the S&P500’s total market-cap weighting. So if they tumble, other sectors will need to work harder to offset the drag.

Second, concerns about leveraged AI spending are now toped by growing anxiety that AI could replace businesses and jobs – which would negatively affect sectors previously expected to benefit from AI productivity gains and lower costs.

The interesting thing is that these two fears do not fully align. If AI is about to wipe out entire sectors and businesses, then piling into AI could make sense, as the “Big Replacement” would enhance returns on AI investment. But if the concern is that AI returns will take time to materialise and the transition will be gradual, then betting on businesses disappearing overnight seems inconsistent.

My take is that AI-related Big Tech stocks are trading at high multiples, and a downside correction was overdue. A further 10–20% pullback is plausible.

But AI-related anxiety and sharp selloffs appear exaggerated. Many companies will benefit from productivity gains and lower costs, which could lead to consolidation – but businesses are unlikely to disappear overnight. Some gems may already be trading at significant discounts. Adobe, for example, is trading at a P/E ratio of around 15.

So valuations between tech and the rest of the market will likely continue to converge, and sector rotation could help temper downside pressure at the index level – the lower the tech exposure, the softer the selloff. Voilà. That’s my big take.

This week will be relatively light. US markets are closed today and China is off to the Lunar New Year holiday. Still, there are several data releases and earnings to watch.

In the US, the Fed minutes on Wednesday and the growth and PCE updates on Friday will be the major releases. In the UK, jobs and inflation data will be in focus. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, and flash PMI figures will provide insight into activity levels toward the end of the week.

On the earnings front, Walmart will be interesting to watch, as it could serve as a dual indicator of US consumer health and AI integration, with potential implications for AI business models and what they mean for employment.

In focus today

Today in Sweden, the labour force survey (LFS) for January will be published. We expect seasonally adjusted unemployment to remain steady at 8.8% (Dec: 8.8%), which is in line with January data from the Swedish Public Employment Service. Looking ahead, we expect a marked labour market recovery during the spring.

Also in Sweden, the money market's inflation expectation survey (Origo Group) is released today. Short-term inflation expectations have slipped from around 2.0% to 1.5% because of the announced reduction in food VAT. However, longer-term expectations are well-anchored on target. Given this, it bolsters the Riksbank's strategy to look through 'temporarily' low inflation in the coming year.

For the rest of the week, focus on Tuesday will be the ZEW Survey in Germany, on Wednesday the minutes of the FOMC's January meeting and the monetary policy meeting in New Zealand, on Thursday the euro area consumer confidence, while flash PMIs for the US and the euro area round of the week on Friday.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Japan, preliminary 2025Q4 GDP growth came in below expectations with an increase of 0.1% q/q (cons: 0.4%, prior: -0.7%). The downside surprise came from slower growth in capital expenditures which only increased 0.2% q/q (cons: 0.8%, prior: -0.3%). Private consumption increased at the slowest pace in a year by increasing 0.1% q/q (cons: 0.1%, prior: 0.4%). The data was thus clearly weaker than expected and especially the low domestic demand caused the Yen to weaken against the USD. After Takaichi's sweeping election win last week, the administration is expected to increase public spending to encourage private consumption and sustain economic growth in 2026.

What happened over the weekend

On Friday, US January CPI landed close to our expectations, as headline inflation slowed down to 2.4% y/y (Dec. 2.7%) and core inflation to 2.5% y/y (Dec. 2.6%). Energy contribution weighed on the headline figure despite the spike in natural gas prices, as US gasoline prices remained low through most of January. Negative base effects weighed also on the core inflation reading, even though the monthly pace accelerated slightly (+0.30% m/m SA, Dec. +0.23%). Looking ahead, slowing housing inflation and unit labour cost growth remain key disinflationary drivers for 2026. Read more about the latest global inflation developments from our Global Inflation Watch - Signs of cooling services inflation, 13 February

In the euro area, employment increased 0.2% q/q in 2025Q4 like in Q3, thereby showing that the labour market continues to be a hawkish factor for the ECB. While the aggregate euro area employment data is encouraging, we also see that the diverging trends between Southern Europe and Central Europe continued as employment in Spain increased 0.8% q/q, while employment in Germany declined 0.1% q/q. Continued employment growth in the euro area supports the ECB's current policy stance.

Over the weekend, the Munich Security Conference took place amid elevated tensions between the US and Europe. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed commitment to the partnership between the US and Europe which gave some relief to European leaders; however, he maintained US demands for European countries to take greater responsibility for their security. In line hereof, Ursula von der Leyen called on the EU to take greater responsibility for its own security, arguing that strategic independence across defence, energy, trade and technology is no longer optional.

Also at the security conference and ahead of this week's peace talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US, Ukrainian president Zelenskyy called for a clear date for Ukraine's EU membership and urged the US to provide security guarantees for at least 20 years. EU leaders responded that they are not ready to set a membership date.

Equities remained largely unchanged on Friday, concluding a risk-off week driven not by macroeconomic developments but by concerns over AI disruption. What began in software this year, last week extended to various other sectors (logistics, transportation, wealth management...) as investors reassessed the disruptive potential of AI in high-margin service businesses. On Friday, however, investors cautiously returned to software. It wasn't a significant rebound, but the industry regained 2% during the US trading session, making it one of the best-performing sectors for the day. Despite the modest software recovery, Friday's session was largely defensive, with healthcare, real estate, and utilities among the top-performing sectors, while banks and big tech lagged. Small-cap stocks outperformed, with the Russell 2000 gaining 1.1% compared to an unchanged performance for the S&P 500 and Stoxx 600. Futures are slightly higher this morning.

FI and FX: EUR/USD ended Friday's session broadly unchanged as US CPI for January came in line with expectations while EUR/CHF hit the lowest level since January 2015 as risk-off sentiment lent support to the Franc. It was a busy week for Norwegian markets as NOK CPI on Tuesday was a game changer for short-end NOK rates as evident from price action with short-end rates completing a close to record intra-day rise. European yields ended the week on a weak footing with risk off sentiment dominating markets over the past week. As a result, 2Y EUR swap yields declined 5bp and 10Y EUR swap yields declined 10bp over the past week. In the US, yields declined across the curve during Friday's session. Oil prices fell on Friday, as news broke that OPEC+ looks to consider whether to hike production again in April.