Sample Category Title

• Technical signs, including upper wicks and an overbought RSI, point to potential fatigue for AUD/USD.
• The long-term bullish outlook remains due to policy divergence but does not rule out a short-term correction.
• Significant volatility is expected from the upcoming RBA and Federal Reserve meeting minutes, as well as high-impact data releases from both Australia and the US.

AUD/USD has been on a tear since January 19, rallying some 500 odd pips since. The move has coincided with US dollar weakness and a renewed appetite for emerging markets and commodity linked currencies like the Australian dollar.

The current rally appears to have found a top around the 0.7150 handle before ending last week with two bearish days. This has raised the question, is a deeper correction on its way for AUD/USD?

Fundamental outlook - Central Bank policy divergence

The longer term fundamental picture still supports further Aussie dollar gains as central bank policy divergence comes into play.

The RBA has raised rates at its recent meeting with the potential for more rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve continues to eye rate cuts at some point this year.

However, in the short-term a pullback still may materialize and looking at the recent price action, there do appear to be signs to support this narrative.

Just looking at implied rates for the Fed and the RBA, and the divergence is evident. According to LSEG data, markets are pricing in around 37 bps of rate hikes for the RBA through December 2026.

RBA implied rates for 2026

Source LSEG

Now switching to the Federal Reserve and markets are pricing in around 66 bps of rate cuts after last week's softer than expected CPI print. This leaves the Aussie dollar in pole position for more gains as the year progresses.

Federal Reserve implied rates for 2026

Source: LSEG

Technical Analysis - AUD/USD

From a technical point of view, the best place to start is the weekly chart.

On a weekly timeframe we have seen upper wicks which may be a sign that bullish momentum is fading.

If you couple that with the period-14 RSI which is in overbought territory.

Are these signs of fatigue?

AUD/USD Weekly Chart, February 16, 2026

Source:TradingView.com

Dropping down to a four-hour timeframe, and support at 0.70690 is key.

A break of this level though still faces significant hurdles with the 50 and 100-day MAs resting just below at 0.7054 and 0.7011 respectively.

A break of these levels as well as the 0.7000 handle could open up a deeper retracement toward the 0.6913 and potentially the 200-day MA at 0.6861.

This would be considered the safety play for market participants.

The more aggressive traders may look at any move higher toward the recent highs as a potential trade opportunity.

Stops would need to go just above the recent highs with a bit of breathing room in the event of any spikes, around the 0.7170 handle.

Such a move will present a better risk-to-reward opportunity but is also a higher risk trade setup.

AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart, February 16, 2026

Source:TradingView.com

Client sentiment data - AUD/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on AUD/USD with 59% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means AUD/USD could rise in the near-term before a potential selloff.

Looking ahead at potential catalysts for AUD/USD

This week will bring both the RBA and Federal Reserve meeting minutes which will shed further light on the monetary policy positions moving forward. These events culd stoke significant volatility in AUD/USD.

From a data perspective, we will also get the Australian employment change data. The US has a few high impact data releases ahead with PCE, GDP and PMI data all ahead before the end of the week.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of NZDUSD. In which, the rally from 21 November 2025 low is unfolding as an impulse & showed a higher high sequence therefore, called for an extension higher to take place. We knew that the structure in NZDUSD should remain supported & extend higher. So, we advised members not to sell the pair & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

NZDUSD 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 2.06.2026

Here’s the 1- hour Elliott wave Chart from the 2.06.2026 Asia update. In which, the rally to $0.6092 high completed wave ((iii)) & made a pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct the cycle from 1.09.2026 low. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave double three correction where wave (w) ended at $0.5590 low. A bounce to $0.6063 high-ended wave (x). Then started the next leg lower in wave (y) towards $0.5958- $0.5893 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum.

NZDUSD Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 2.14.2026

This is the latest 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 2.14.2026 Weekend update. In which the pair is showing a strong reaction higher taking place, right after ending the correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area. However, a break above $0.6092 high is needed to confirm the next extension higher. Targeting $0.6131- $0.6194 ( minimum extension target) and avoid deeper correction lower. As additional data became available, label intensities were refined and corrected to ensure greater accuracy

Gold price edged lower in early Monday but held within a narrow range, due to lower volumes, as Far East and the US markets are closed for holidays.

The yellow metal traded within $4900/$5100 range in the past few sessions, reflecting lack of direction, as key drivers sent mixed signals lately.

Technical studies show conflicting signals from negative momentum and bullish setup of MAs, while the latest economic data from the US were also mixed (unexpected strengthening in the labor market / slower than expected rise in consumer prices).

Situation on geopolitical front is also unclear after immediate threat of US-Iran conflict eased and two countries started negotiations, although the situation remains fragile (Ukraine / deepening political gap between the US and EU) that may keep safe haven demand in the upward trajectory.

Markets wait for fresh signals that would define near-term direction, with key technical levels standing at $4900 zone and $5100 zone.

Break of either side to generate initial signal of reversal or bullish continuation.

Res: 5053; 5100; 5118; 5200
Sup: 4980; 4900; 4880; 4850

Eurozone industrial production fell -1.4% mom in December, slightly better than expectation of -1.5% mom, but still signaling weak momentum into year-end. .

By category, capital goods output in Eurozone dropped sharply by -1.9%, highlighting fragile business investment conditions. Production of intermediate goods edged down -0.1%, energy slipped -0.3%, and non-durable consumer goods fell -0.3%. Durable consumer goods provided limited offset, rising 0.2%.

Across the broader EU, production declined -0.8% mom. Slovakia (-4.9%), Germany (-2.9%), and Spain (-2.6%) recorded the steepest contractions, while Luxembourg (+6.4%), Sweden (+4.4%), and Malta (+4.2%) posted solid gains.

Full Eurozone industrial production release here.

Gold on Monday fell to 4980 USD per ounce after rising more than 2% in the previous session. The volatility was driven by weaker-than-expected US inflation data.

Soft CPI data has boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut this year, and the market is now pricing in just over two cuts. Investors' focus was on the publication of the FOMC minutes, a preliminary estimate of US GDP and PCE inflation data. All of them could clarify the timing of the regulator's next move.

On the geopolitical front, attention is focused on the nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the resumption of consultations on Tuesday to address the conflict involving Russia. These events could further affect risk appetite and demand for defensive assets.

Despite the current correction, gold remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty, continued purchases by central banks, and capital flows from sovereign bonds and currencies.

Technical Analysis

The H4 time frame for gold shows a transition after a sharp decline from the zone above 5500 USD to the consolidation phase. The price is held around 4980–5050, moving along the median line of the Bollinger Bands. Volatility has decreased noticeably, with a range forming. Key support stands at 4900–4920 USD, resistance at 5050–5100 USD.

The H1 chart shows a sharp drop to 4880 USD, followed by a rebound. Now the price is again testing the area 4970-4990 USD. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing – the market is bracing for another move. Pinning above 5000 USD will open the way to 5050 USD; the loss of 4950 USD will increase pressure towards 4900 USD.

Conclusion

In summary, gold's modest pullback represents a healthy consolidation following an aggressive rally triggered by softer US inflation data. The fundamental backdrop remains constructive, with renewed Fed easing expectations, sustained central bank buying, and geopolitical tensions providing underlying support. Technically, the price is compressing within a narrowing range, signalling an imminent directional move. The critical threshold remains the psychological 5000 level: reclaiming it would target 5050 USD resistance, while sustained weakness below 4950 USD could open a retest of 4900 USD support. With key US data and geopolitical events looming, gold is poised for its next significant move.

GBP/USD started a downside correction from 1.3700. USD/CAD is gaining bullish momentum and might clear 1.3640 for more upside.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

The British Pound rallied toward 1.3700 before the bears appeared.

There is a declining channel forming with support near 1.3585 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.

USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3555 support zone.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3555 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair gained pace for a move toward 1.3700, as discussed in the previous analysis. The British Pound failed to stay above 1.3700 and started a downside correction below 1.3660 against the US Dollar.

The pair traded below 1.3630, the 50-hour simple moving average, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3508 swing low to the 1.3712 high.

Finally, the bulls appeared near 1.3600, and the pair trimmed some losses. It is back above 1.3630 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Immediate hurdle on the upside is near 1.3665.

The first major resistance is 1.3710. The main sell zone sits at 1.3740. A close above 1.3740 might spark a steady upward move. The next stop for the bulls might be near 1.3800. Any more gains could lead the pair toward 1.3880 in the near term.

If there is a fresh decline, initial bid zone on the GBP/USD chart sits at 1.3635. The next major area of interest could be 1.3585. There is also a declining channel forming with support near 1.3585, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.3510.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CAD at FXOpen, the pair formed a strong base above 1.3500. The US Dollar started a fresh increase above 1.3540 and 1.3550 against the Canadian Dollar.

More importantly, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3555. The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3724 swing high to the 1.3504 low.

The pair is now consolidating above the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is another increase, the pair might face hurdles near 1.3640 and the 61.8% Fib retracement.

A clear upside break above 1.3640 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the pair could test 1.3725. A close above 1.3725 might send the pair toward 1.3800. Any more gains could open the doors for a test of 1.3920.

Initial support is near the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3590. The next key breakdown zone could be 1.3555. The main hurdle for the bears might be 1.3505 on the same USD/CAD chart.

A downside break below 1.3505 could push the pair further lower. The next key area of interest might be 1.3465, below which the pair might visit 1.3420.

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BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda met Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for the first time since the LDP’s decisive election win, in talks closely watched by markets for clues on policy direction. The timing is notable, with expectations growing that inflation pressures tied to Yen weakness could accelerate interest rate normalization.

Following the meeting, Ueda described the talks as a “general exchange of views on economic and financial developments,” adding that the prime minister made no specific monetary policy requests. Pressed on whether he secured political backing for the BoJ’s rate hikes, Ueda declined to provide details, saying there was nothing he could disclose about the substance of the discussion.

Speculation has intensified in recent weeks that rising cost-of-living pressures may prompt the BoJ to consider raising rates as early as March or April. While the meeting yielded no explicit signals, the absence of public disagreement may be interpreted as tacit support for the central bank’s cautious path toward policy tightening.

Late January proved exceptionally volatile in the currency markets, as reflected by the ATR indicator. However, following the rebound from the four-year low (B), price swings on the DXY chart have narrowed, suggesting a degree of market stabilisation.

Friday’s CPI release had the potential to trigger sharp moves in the US dollar index, yet no major surprises emerged. According to Forex Factory data, the actual figures were broadly in line with analysts’ forecasts (inflation eased slightly as expected), and market participants headed into the long weekend, with US financial markets closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

On 27 January, when analysing the Dollar Index (DXY) chart, we:

• → updated the descending channel (marked in red);
• → noted that DXY was trading near a long-term support zone from which price had rebounded twice in the second half of 2025;
• → suggested that the downward momentum could be losing strength.

However, the market had other plans. Although the rally towards peak C (the former support level) is a clear sign that bearish pressure is fading, it was preceded by a false downside breakout of the aforementioned support area.

Swing analysis also points to stabilisation, based on the proportional structure:

• → peak C formed within the 50%–61.8% retracement of the A→B impulse;
• → trough D developed within the 50%–61.8% retracement of the B→C move;
• → peak E emerged within the 50%–61.8% retracement of the C→D impulse.

The previously highlighted support zone is now acting as a range where supply and demand appear balanced.

While the descending channel remains technically valid, the confident trajectory (indicated by the arrow) from the B low suggests that bears may struggle to maintain the prevailing trend of recent months.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1849; (P) 1.1867; (R1) 1.1887; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, above 1.1928 will target a retest on 1.2081 high. Decisive break there and sustained trading above 1.2 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1760) will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2, and target 1.1576 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1485) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.31; (P) 152.99; (R1) 153.38; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a consolidations pattern only. On the upside, firm break of 154.63 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound towards 157.65. However, decisive break of 151.96 will argue that it's reversing the rise from 139.87 already. In this case, deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 147.34, and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.77) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.