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WTI oil price remains under strong pressure on Wednesday and attacks $46.04, base of narrowing daily cloud which contained Tuesday's dip at $45.75.

The oil price fell sharply in past two days, showing no impact from hurricane Harvey which caused shutdowns of refineries and disruptions in supply, as strong concerns on global oversupply continue to weigh heavily on oil prices.

Tuesday's close below $46.44 (former low of 17 Aug) was bearish signal, with price looking for close below daily cloud to confirm and trigger bearish extension towards next targets at $45.39/24 (24 July trough / Fibo 61.8% of $42.04/$50.41 rally).

EIA weekly crude inventories report will be released today with forecast for draw of 1.9 million barrels in the week ending August 25, compared to draw of 3.3 million barrels last week.

Release of API Crude stocks report on Tuesday showed draw of 5.7 million barrels, well above forecasted 1.5 million barrels draw which indicates that US oil market is starting to tighten.

Stronger than expected draw in oil inventories today may reduce the pace of recent bearish acceleration and generate initial recovery signal.

Narrowing daily cloud which is twisting early next week may attract for fresh recovery and support scenario. However, firm break above cloud is required neutralize bearish threats and shift near-term focus higher.

Res: 46.38, 46.70, 47.01, 47.38
Sup: 46.44, 45.80, 45.39, 45.24

Crude oil is trading lower. Hourly support is given at 45.40 (17/08/2017 high). Strong resistance can be found at 50.41 (31/07/2017). Expected to show continued short-term bearish move.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

Silver's bullish pressures are strong. Hourly resistance is given at 17.32 (18/08/2017 high) while support can be found at 16.58 (15/08/2017 high). The commodity lies in a short-term uptrend channel. Expected to show another leg higher.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Gold is surging. Hourly support is given at a distance 1251 (08/08/2017 low). Stronger support lies at 1204 (10/07/2017 high). Expected to show continued increase.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low)

Bitcoin has set a new all-time high. Hourly support lies very far at 3599 (22/08/2017 low). The road is wide open for another bullish move.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will consolidate above $1500. Long-term support is given at $1464 (04/05/2017 low)

GBP/USD – 1.2927





New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop:- 



As cable has retreated after surging to 1.2979 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.2895-00, then towards support at 1.2873 cannot be ruled out, however, if our view that low has been formed at 1.2774 is correct, downside should be limited to 1.2835-40 and bring another rebound later. Above said resistance at 1.2979 would revive bullishness and extend the corrective rise from 1.2774 low for retracement of recent decline from 1.3269 to 1.3000 and possibly towards resistance at 1.3032.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for mow. Below 1.2835-40 suggest the rebound from 1.2774 has ended instead, risk weakness to 1.2800, then retest of said support at 1.2774 which is likely to hold on first testing.

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable's rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200. 


EUR/CHF recovery bounce has stalled below downtrend resistance located at 1.1407. Hourly support is located at 1.1260 (04/08/2017 low). Expected to show further consolidation.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high) has been broken. Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP's buying pressures continues. Hourly resistance lies at 0.9415 (10/07/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9189 (24/08/2017 low). Downside risks are nonetheless important.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

AUD/USD has broken downtrend channel. Hourly support can be found at 0.7786 (18/07/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 0.8066 (27/07/2017 high). Expected to further consolidate.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD selling continues. Hourly support is given at a distance at 1.2414 (27/07/2017 low) while resistance is now given at a distance at 1.2778 (15/08/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term bearish move.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low) before bouncing back. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair should head further lower.