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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8450; (P) 0.8479; (R1) 0.8497; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.8404 will turn focus back to 0.8303 low. Break there will extend the whole corrective pattern from 0.9304. In that case, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.8529 will resume the rebound from 0.8312 towards 0.8786 resistance. Overall, there is no change in the view that price action from 0.9304 are forming a corrective pattern. Such pattern would extend in near term.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. In case of deeper fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) will resume at a later stage to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0831; (P) 1.0848; (R1) 1.0870; More...

Breach of 1.0872 suggests rise resumption in EUR/CHF. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.0897 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm our bullish view of reversal and will target 1.0999 resistance next. However, break of 1.0791 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0739).

In the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1198 are seen as a corrective move. Current strong rebound is raising the chance that it's completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653. Decisive break of 1.0999 resistance will target a test on 1.1198 high. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.0652 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.20; (P) 145.81; (R1) 146.83; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Correction from 148.42 should have completed at 135.58. And whole rally from 122.36 is likely resuming. Break of 148.42 will target 150.42 fibonacci level.. Further break there will target 100% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 135.58 at 161.64. On the downside, below 144.79 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.85; (P) 123.25; (R1) 123.91; More...

EUR/JPY edges higher to 124.48 earlier today but quickly retreats. With 122.92 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 124.08 key resistance will confirm resumption of whole rise from 109.20. In that case, EUR/JPY would target 126.09 resistance first. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. On the downside, below 122.92 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat first.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

The global financial markets react little to the highly expected win of pro-EU centrist Emmanuel Macron's in the French presidential election. Euro trades generally lower with Swiss franc as the expectation became news. Dollar on the other hand, trades mildly higher. Strength in the greenback is mildly overwhelmed by New Zealand dollar. The Kiwi is lifted on expectation that RBNZ would sound more upbeat in this week's policy statement. Canadian Dollar follows as oil price stabilized after last week's steep selloff. Meanwhile, Aussie is weighed down by weaker than expected import growth in China.

Macron to work on EU and modernizing French economy

Centrist independent Emmanuel Macron has won the French presidential election in a decisive victory. With virtually all votes counted, Macron has taken 66% of votes in the second round runoff, compared with far-right populist Marine Le Pen's 34%. Macron is pro-EU but believes some changes are needed to make the institution strong. As he suggested in an interview prior to the election, 'I propose to restore the credibility of France in the eyes of Germany, to convince Berlin in the next six months to adopt an active investment policy and move towards greater solidarity in Europe'.

On the economy and the labor market, Macron's plan in modernization of the economy includes an investment program focusing on the digital economy and environmental protection. Transformations of the health care system and housing policies are also in his agenda. The next event in France is the Parliamentary election scheduled in June. Only with a parliamentary majority would the new President be able to fully implement his political agenda and designate his own PM and cabinet members.

More in Macron Becomes French President In Landslide Victory

China exports and imports grew less than expected

China trade surplus widened to USD 38.1b in April, up from USD 23.9b and beat expectation of USD 35.3b. However, exports rose merely 8.0% yoy while imports rose 11.9% yoy. Both fell short of expectation of 10.4% yoy and 18.0% yoy respectively. In Yuan terms, trade surplus widened to CNY 262b, up from CNY 164b and beat expectation of CNY 197b. The data showed softening domestic demand that weighed down imports. There would likely be more downward pressure with the government's tightening policies.

Looking ahead for today, Germany will release factory orders while Eurozone will release Sentix investor confidence. Canada will release housing starts. US will release labor market conditions index.

RBNZ and BoE to highlight the week

For the week ahead, RBNZ and BoE meetings on Thursday are the major focuses. RBNZ is widely expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 1.75%. While headline inflation in New Zealand has reached the 2% target sooner than expected, RBNZ is still expected to stand pat throughout the year. The timing of rate hike, based on current development, though, could be pulled ahead to mid to late 2018. We'd look for sign that RBNZ is sounding more neutral and relieved in the accompany statement.

In BoE's "Super Thursday", rate decision, minutes and the quarterly Inflation Report will be released. BoE is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and the asset purchase size at GBP 435b. The are two particular things to note in the announcements. Firstly, Kristin Forbes will likely continue to vote for rate hike this month. Her view represents the camp in the MPC that is getting more impatient with inflation. The voting and minutes could show who else would be joining her. Secondly, adjustments in growth and inflation forecast would provide hints on timing of a hike by BoE .

Here are some highlights for the week ahead:

• Tuesday: Australia retail sales; Swiss unemployment rate; German industrial production, trade balance; Canada building permits
• Wednesday: BoJ summary of opinions; China CPI and PPI; Japan leading indicators; US import price
• Thursday: RBNZ rate decision; Japan current account, Eco Watcher sentiment; Swiss CPI; ECB bulletin; BoE rate decision; UK productions, trade balance; US PPI, jobless claims
• Friday: New Zealand manufacturing index; Germany GDP, Eurozone industrial production; US CPI, retail sales, U of Michigan sentiment

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.85; (P) 123.25; (R1) 123.91; More...

EUR/JPY edges higher to 124.48 earlier today but quickly retreats. With 122.92 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 124.08 key resistance will confirm resumption of whole rise from 109.20. In that case, EUR/JPY would target 126.09 resistance first. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. On the downside, below 122.92 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat first.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Economic Indicators Update

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.18% against the USD and closed at 0.7421 on Friday.

LME Copper prices declined 0.2% or $12.5/MT to $5530.5/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.1% or $2.5/MT to $1907.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7397, with the AUD trading 0.32% lower against the USD from Friday's close, on the back of weaker-than-expected building approvals data in Australia.

Early morning data indicated that Australia's seasonally adjusted building approvals deteriorated 13.4% on a monthly basis in March, surpassing market consensus for a drop of 4.0%. In the previous month, building approvals had risen by a revised 8.9%.

On the other hand, the nation's NAB business confidence index rose to a six-year high level of 13.0 in April, highlighting that firms are getting increasingly optimistic about the nation's economic recovery. The index had registered a reading of 6.0 in the prior month. Moreover, the nation's business conditions index climbed to a level of 14.0 in April. In the previous month, the index had recorded a revised level of 12.0.

Elsewhere, in China, Australia's largest trading partner, trade surplus widened more-than-anticipated to a level of CNY262.3 in billion in April, jumping to its highest level since January 2017. In the previous month, the nation recorded a surplus of CNY164.3 billion. Meanwhile, the nation's annual exports rose less-than-expected by 14.3% in April, compared to gain of 22.3% in the prior month. Also, the nation's imports advanced less-than-anticipated by 18.6% on an annual basis in April, after recording a rise of 26.3% in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7366, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7335. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7427, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7457.

Moving ahead, market participants await the release of Australia's retail sales data for March, slated to release in the early hours of tomorrow.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.0995 on Friday.

On the economic front, Germany's Markit construction PMI dropped to a level of 54.6 in April, compared to a level of 56.4 in the previous month.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, the Centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron, decisively won the French presidential election, defeating far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen.

In the US, macroeconomic data indicated that non-farm payrolls rose more-than-expected by 211.0K in April, suggesting that the nation's job growth is strong enough to warrant an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the next month. Markets had expected non-farm payrolls to advance by 190.0K, following a revised increase of 79.0K in the prior month. Additionally, the nation's unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.4% in April, hitting its lowest level in nearly ten years. Unemployment rate had registered a level of 4.5% in the previous month, whereas market anticipated for a rise to 4.6%. Further, the nation's average hourly earnings of all employees advanced 0.3% on a monthly basis in April, meeting market expectations and compared to a revised rise of 0.1% in the previous month.

Other economic data showed that consumer credit in the US increased by $16.4 billion in March, higher than market expectations for a rise of $14.5 billion. In the prior month, consumer credit had advanced by a revised $13.8 billion.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0973, with the EUR trading 0.2% lower against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0943, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0912. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1009, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1044.

Moving ahead, investors will look forward to the Euro-zone's Sentix investor confidence for May and Germany's factory orders for March, slated to release in a few hours. Additionally, the US labour market conditions index for April, due to release later in the day, will be eyed by market participants.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.45% against the USD and closed at 1.2979 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2952, with the GBP trading 0.21% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.291, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2869. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.299, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3029.

Looking ahead, traders will keep a close watch on UK’s Halifax house prices for April, scheduled to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the JPY and closed at 112.46 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 112.75, with the USD trading 0.26% higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 112.24, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.72. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.09, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.42.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 0.9866 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9893, with the USD trading 0.27% higher against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9865, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9838. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9912, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9932.

With no major economic releases in Switzerland today, investors will look forward to global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.