'Overall, the forecasts for year-ended GDP growth are lower over the next three quarters than those presented in the November statement, almost entirely due to the base effect of the weak September quarter'. - Reserve Bank of Australia

Australia's Central bank stated on Friday that the economy remained on a relatively strong footing during the second half of 2016. In its Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia said that the possibility of a widely expected downturn in the Australian housing market remained low. The Bank also said its forecasts for 2016 GDP growth were revised down, following sluggish growth in the Q3, when the economy unexpectedly contracted 0.5% after two straight quarters of economic growth. However, the RBA said this contraction was largely due to temporary factors, such as a slowdown in building activity related to bad weather and coal supply disruptions. As to inflation, the Bank said the inflation rate would likely remain below its inflationary 2-3% target band until the middle of 2019. In the meantime, according to the Central bank's estimates, the annual rate of population growth would probably remain around 1.5-1.6% but the economy would likely fail to create more jobs over the next years. The unemployment rate, which rose to 5.8% in December from the prior month's 5.7%, would remain in a range of 5-6% until the middle of 2019. The Central bank also said that a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy would remain a key risk to Australia over the next several years.

The pair trades within narrowing consolidation range between fresh high at 0.7694 and strong support at 0.7600 zone.

Near-term price action was so far supported by daily Tenkan-sen that turned north after sideways phase, with strong bullish setup of daily MA's, still keeping upside bias.

However, fresh dollar's strength on Trump's tax plan talks, so far did not stronger affect the pair's near-term action, but caution is required.

Stronger downside risk could be expected on firm break below 0.7600 handle.

Res: 0.7664' 0.7694' 0.7730' 0.7750
Sup: 0.7617' 0.7600' 0.7584' 0.7510

The pair extends Thursday's strong bullish acceleration on Friday and is eventually firmly above daily Tenkan-sen, former pivotal barrier.

Near-term risk is shifted towards the upside, following repeated rejections at 111.50, where near-term base has formed.

Fresh rally approaches pivotal barrier at 113.91 (Fibo 61.8% of 115.36/111.57 downleg), break of which would expose daily Kijun-sen at 114.55).

Corrective pullback on overbought hourly studies should be contained at 112.70 zone (broken Tenkan-sen / 50% of 111.61/113.84 rally).

Res: 113.91, 114.55, 114.93, 115.36
Sup: 113.31, 113.00, 112.70, 112.46

Quick pullback from 1.2580, yesterday’s strong rally peak, sidelined strong upside potential and shifted near-term focus lower.

The pair dipped to 1.2470 so far, where rising 20SMA offered support. However, downside remains at risk, as near-term technicals are weakening and bearish momentum building on daily chart.

Extension towards key support, daily cloud (spanned between 1.2400 and 1.2442) would further weaken the structure and risk return to Tuesday’s spike low at 1.2345.

Daily Tenkan-sen is again acting as resistance and marks strong barrier at 1.2525. Only firm break above here would revive hopes of fresh attempts at 1.2567/80 upper pivots (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2704/1.2345 / Wednesday’s spike high).

Res: 1.2500, 1.2525, 1.2567, 1.2580
Sup: 1.2470, 1.2442, 1.2400, 1.2345

The Euro is pressuring strong support at 1.0641 (Wednesday's low/Fibo 38.2% of 1.0339/1.0827 rally/daily Kijun-sen), following double rejection at 1.0700 zone, where 20SMA repeatedly capped recovery attempts. As the dollar remains supported by yesterday's announcement from US president Trump about ambitious tax reform play, the single currency is expected to remain under strong pressure in the near term. Firm break below 1.0641 pivot would generate strong bearish signal for fresh acceleration lower. Immediate support lies at 1.0603 (55SMA), ahead of near-term targets at 1.0550 /25 (daily cloud base/Fibo 61.8% retracement). Alternatively, sustained bounce above 20SMA (currently at 1.0706) would sideline immediate downside risk and re-expose falling 100SMA (currently at 1.0762) that so far capped recovery leg from 1.0339.

Res: 1.0666, 1.0706, 1.0730, 1.0762
Sup: 1.0619, 1.0603, 1.0583, 1.0550

Crude Oil is turning higher this week with five waves up from 51.20, so it can be a very interesting market this month as price action suggests that bulls can be back in control. However, nothing moves in straight line so be aware of a three wave set-back to 52.20 area before uptrend may resume. Invalidation level is now at 51.21; as long this price holds; trend is up.

Crude OIL, 1H

Sunrise Market Commentary

• Rates: US Treasuries sell-off after failed test resistance and announcement Trump
  US Treasuries lost ground yesterday after another failed test of 125-09/16 resistance. Trump's promise of a “phenomenal” corporate tax announcement the next weeks, accelerated the sell-off. Today's eco calendar remains rather uneventful, suggesting more sentiment- and technically-driven trading.
• Currencies: Dollar rebounds on renewed 'Trump tax-hope'
  Yesterday, the dollar rallied as Trump's comments on upcoming tax measures reactivated the global reflation trade. Today, the fate of the reflation trade will be important for USD trading. USD investors will also keep a close eye at the outcome of the meeting between US president Trump and Japanese PM Abe

The Sunrise Headlines

• US stocks climbed to new heights (+0.50%), after Trump said he will release a 'phenomenal' corporate tax announcement the next two to three weeks. Overnight, Asian indices gain up to 1% with Japan outperforming (+2%).
• A federal appeals court ruled against President Trump's executive order on immigration and refugees, saying such a travel ban shouldn't go into effect while courts consider whether it goes too far in limiting travellers to the US.
• In a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Trump affirmed the “One China” policy that has long underpinned Sino-US relations, a declaration that appeared aimed at ending weeks of uncertainty.
• China reported better-than-expected trade data for January as demand picked up both at home and abroad, an encouraging start to 2017 even as Asia's exporters brace for a rise in US protectionism.
• Mexico's central bank increased its key lending rate as expected by 50 bps to 6.25% in a bid to cool inflation and prevent the peso, which has weakened around 12% since Trump's election, from piling further pressure on prices.
• German chancellor Merkel set out tough plans to speed the removal of failed asylum seekers, including a repatriation centre to handle difficult cases and increased cash inducements for those leaving voluntarily.
• Around €1.7T of French public debt could be redenominated into francs if Le Pen's far-right FN gets into power, according to party officials, in what would according to ratings agencies amount to the world's largest sovereign default
• Today's eco calendar contains UK industrial production and US Michigan consumer confidence. ECB governors Weidmann and Mersch speak

Currencies: Dollar Rebounds On Renewed 'Trump Tax-Hope'

Dollar reaccelerates on 'Trump's tax promise'

On Thursday, USD trading was initially technically in nature, with few links toother markets. During the US trading session, markets were propelled by atweet from President Trump as he indicated to announce something on taxes inthe weeks to come. The Trump reflation trade resumed. Major US equity indicestouched new record highs, yields jumped higher and so did the dollar. USD/JPYclosed at 113.25 (from 111.93). EUR/USD dropped and finished the day at 1.0655(from 1.0698).

Overnight, Asian equities join the Trump risk-rebound. Japanese equitiesoutperform on the weaker yen. USD/JPY is currently changing hands in the 113.75area. US president Trump accepting the 'One Chine' policy and strong Chinesetrade data (January exports and imports rose more than expected) supportregional sentiment. The dollar extends the Trump driven rebound, but gainsremain most. EUR/USD changes hands in the mid 1.0650 area.

Today's EMU economic calendar contains French and Italian production data.They are no market movers. In the US, January import prices are expected to risefurther (3.4% Y/Y from 1.8% Y/Y) based on petroleum and food prices. Risks maybe on the downside. Michigan consumer sentiment is expected to have slightlydeclined in February to 98 from 98.5. Sentiment is at its highest since the end of2000. So such a minimal decline shouldn't have much impact. The data will againonly be of second tier importance for trading, unless they bring a big surprise.Markets will also look out to the meeting between President Trump and JapanesePM Abe. The valuation of the yen and Japanese exports to the US are sensitiveissues. However, over the previous days, Trump sounded less offensive on China.Maybe the headlines from the meeting with Abe also shouldn't be thathard/negative. If so, it might be (slihglty) positve for risk sentiment and for thedollar (including USD/JPY). The ST USD momentum improved this week, but therise in core yields and of the dollor (both against the yen and the euro) remainsmoderate. The hope on new US tax maesures might put a floor for equities andfor the dollar short-term. That said, we have the impression that any furtherrebound will develop rather gradually.

Global context: The dollar is/was in a corrective downtrend since the start ofJanuary as the Trump reflation trade petered out. Interest rate differentials infavour of the dollar narrowed. Trump's communication became a source ofuncertainty, also for the dollar. At some point, absolute interest rate supportshould provide a USD floor, especially as the Fed is expected to continue itspolicy normalisation. This week, the dollar showed tentative signs of such abottoming out process. Price action earlier this week showed that euro weaknessmight be a factor too. As we see the 1.0874 as solid resistance, a sell EUR/USD onupticks approach might be considered. The downside test of USD/JPY is alsorejected. USD/JPY 111.16 (38% retracement of the 99.02/118.66 rally) remainskey support. The day-to-day momentum improved, but a return to the recenthighs looks an uphill battle. The post-Trump highs (118.60/66) are still far away.

EUR/USD: Topside test rejected. Dollar succeeds a cautious/gradualcomeback

EUR/GBP

Still no clear driver for sterling trading

Yesterday, sterling trading was basically technical in nature, as the Brexitheadlines moved to the background. Later in US dealings, cable even slightlyunderperformed EUR/USD, as the dollar rebounded after the Trump taxcomments. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8526 (from 0.8531). Cable finishedthe day at 1.2497.

Today, the UK calendar is well filled with the Dec UK trade balance andproduction, and the NIESR January GDP estimate. The UK trade deficit is expect tonarrow, but coming from a very high November level. On the other hand,production is expected to show very modest growth after strong Novembergrowth. We side with the consensus. However, sterling might become moresensitive in case the data would be much weaker than expected.Context. On Tuesday, sterling rebounded as the UK Parliament was allowed tovote on the final Brexit agreement. We don't see this 'agreement' as a reason forfurther sterling strength though. Last week's balanced BoE approach capped thetopside of sterling and helped a cautious bottoming out process for EUR/GBP.The EUR/GBP 0.8450 support looks again better protected, as sterling momentumis waning. A cautious EUR/GBP buy-on-dips approach is preferred

EUR/GBP still struggles to rebound off the 0.8450 support area

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action…

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails – essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

EUR/USD

Using a top/down approach this morning, the weekly candle is currently seen trading with a reasonably strong downside bias at the moment after topping around weekly resistance at 1.0819. Providing that the bears remain in the driving seat here, the next weekly support target on tap can be seen at a weekly support area drawn from 1.0333-1.0502. Down on the daily timeframe, however, we have a daily demand zone at 1.0589-1.0662 in play at the moment. Despite this base managing to hold the market higher since Jan 26 2017, nearby daily resistance at 1.0710 is proving troublesome to overcome!

Swinging across to the H4 candles, we can see that the single currency failed to sustain gains beyond the 1.07 handle yesterday, and swiftly sold off going into the London open. Likely fueled by comments from President Trump regarding a tax reform, the pair ended the day testing the H4 mid-level support at 1.0650.

Our suggestions: Although 1.0650 is seen bolstered by a nearby H4 trendline support etched from the low 1.0579, we're cautious about looking to buy from here again. The main reason being is that the daily bulls are now reflecting a bearish stance within the above noted daily demand, and the weekly bears look determined to stamp this market lower (see above). To that end, our team is going to be taking the safest position of them all today – flat!

Data points to consider: US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment scheduled for release at 3pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GBP/USD

On the back of comments made by President Trump concerning a tax reform the greenback advanced northbound yesterday, consequently dragging the GBP lower. Missing February's opening line by a hair at 1.2586 the pair aggressively tumbled lower into the US open, taking out the H4 mid-level support at 1.2550, December's opening level at 1.2514 and also the 1.25 handle. Beyond this psychological boundary, we see little standing in the way of a move back down to the 1.24 neighborhood.

Looking across to the weekly candles, the unit is currently seen trading mid-range between the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.2329 and a weekly Quasimodo resistance coming in at 1.2673. By the same token, a similar pattern is being seen on the daily chart as price is seen loitering between daily demand at 1.2252-1.2342 and a daily supply penciled in at 1.2728-1.2657.

Our suggestions: On account of the above, if H4 price manages to remain below the 1.2514/1.25 region today, the door looks open for further selling, in our opinion. To take advantage of this move, however, we'd require additional confirmation in the form of a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle off the underside of 1.2514/1.25.

Data points to consider: UK manufacturing production at 9.30am. US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment scheduled for release at 3pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.2514/1.25 ([wait for a H4 bear candle to form before looking to execute a trade] stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).

AUD/USD

Although the pair ranged over 50 pips during the course of yesterday's sessions and managed to erase Wednesday's gains, there has been very little change seen to the structure of this market. Given this, our desk remains drawn to the 0.7577/0.76 H4 support area (yellow zone) today. Supporting a bounce from this area we have the following converging structures:

• A H4 AB=CD 127.2% ext. at 0.7589.
• Two H4 trendline supports (0.7449/0.7609).
• A H4 61.8% Fib support at 0.7582.
• February's opening level at 0.7577.
• Round number 0.76.
• We also have the top edge of a daily support area at 0.7581 bolstering the above noted H4 support zone.

Our suggestions: Based on the above confluence, we feel a long from the 0.7589 mark is feasible. To be on the safe side though, stops may want to be placed beyond the H4 161.8% ext. at 0.7562 (0.7564).

Data points to consider: Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy statement at 12.30am. Chinese trade balance figures (tentative). US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment scheduled for release at 3pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 0.7577/0.76 ([an area that can, dependent on the time of day, possibly be traded without additional confirmation] stop loss: 0.7562).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY soared to fresh weekly highs yesterday, following comments made by President Trump regarding a tax reform. The pair broke through several H4 tech resistances and managed to clock highs of 113.34 going into the close. As we write, the H4 candles are currently seen testing a H4 supply zone drawn in at 113.96-113.43. While this area may hold the market lower today, both the weekly and daily timeframes suggest that this zone is extremely vulnerable. From the weekly chart, the weekly support area at 111.44-110.10 was very nearly brought into play recently (missed clipping the top edge of this zone by 10 or so pips). In a similar fashion, daily demand at 111.35-112.37 managed to remain stable, which happens to be positioned around the top edge of the weekly zone mentioned above. The closest upside target on the higher timeframes can be seen on the daily chart at 115.62-114.60: a resistance area that has managed to hold price lower on two occasions already.

Our suggestions: On the whole, we have no intention of becoming buyers in this market until the current H4 supply area is consumed. Beyond this area, we see space for price to challenge December's opening base at 114.68, which, as you can probably see, is located within the lower edge of the aforementioned daily resistance area. Should a H4 close take shape above the H4 supply today, and is followed up with both a retest and a lower-timeframe buy signal (see the top of this report), our desk would look to buy, targeting the 114.68 boundary.

Data points to consider: US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment scheduled for release at 3pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watch for a H4 close above 113.96-113.43 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a lower-timeframe signal to form following the retest is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this zone).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CAD

Coming in from the top this morning, weekly demand at 1.3006-1.3115 is still seen very much in play. The next upside target from this angle comes in at a weekly trendline resistance extended from the high 1.4689. A break below, nevertheless, would place a nearby weekly trendline support etched from the high 1.1278 in the firing range. The story on the daily chart shows us that a daily support area at 1.3169-1.3116 is currently holding the market higher. This area does look a tad vulnerable, however, given yesterday's daily indecision candle. Over on the H4 chart, the pair caught a fresh bid off the 1.32 handle as the market entered into the US segment, which, as you can see, lifted the loonie up to just ahead of the H4 mid-way resistance at 1.3150 by the day's end.

Our suggestions: Selling from 1.3150 would not be a comfortable trade for us, due to where the weekly action is presently situated (see above). With that in mind, we would consider a buy trade should a H4 close above 1.3150 take form. As long as price follows through with a retest to this level as support and a lower-timeframe buy signal (see the top of this report), we would confidently long this market, targeting 1.32 as an initial take-profit zone.

Data points to consider: Canadian employment data at 1.30pm. US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment scheduled for release at 3pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watch for a H4 close above 1.3150 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a lower-timeframe buy signal to form following the retest is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF is seen marginally stronger today after enduring and finally conquering parity (1.0000) yesterday. Across the board, we saw the US dollar advance on comments made by President Trump regarding tax. While there is likely a truckload of buyers now long this market following the break of parity, both the weekly and daily charts seem to be throwing up red flags here! Weekly action is trading within a stone's throw away from the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0029, and price is seen positioned within an inch of a daily trendline resistance etched from the high 0.9956. Therefore, there may be trouble ahead for those breakout buyers! Personally, we would not look to go long here until parity has been successfully retested as support. Even then though, it's still an incredibly risky play knowing that higher-timeframe resistance is lurking just ahead.

Our suggestions: Should price strike the higher-timeframe areas noted above today, we do not think it'll be long before price is trading back below parity. In the event that this comes to fruition today, a short could be possible down to H4 demand at 0.9929-0.9950.

Data points to consider: US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment scheduled for release at 3pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for a H4 close below 1.0000 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a lower-timeframe sell signal to form following the retest is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).

DOW 30

US equities aggressively rose to the upside going into yesterday's US segment, reaching a record high of 20203. As we write, the H4 candles are seen tackling the 127.2% H4 ext. at 20199 taken from the low 20003. Despite this, the bulls still seem to have the upper hand here which may lead to further buying up to the 161.8% H4 ext. at 20252 today. Apart from these Fib resistances, given that we're trading at record highs, there is absolutely no resistance seen on the horizon on the bigger picture.

Our suggestions: Although we absolutely love the 127.2/161.8% Fib levels, shorting into the current buying strength is just too risky, in our humble opinion. Therefore, unless price retests the H4 support at 20118 sometime during the day, opting to stand on the sidelines here may be the better path to take.

Data points to consider: US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment scheduled for release at 3pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 20118 region ([wait for a H4 bull candle to form before looking to execute a trade] stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GOLD

For those who read Thursday's report on the yellow metal you may recall our team highlighting a short position we took from 1239.6, with a stop logged in at 1245.4. As you can see, the trade worked out beautifully, despite quite severe drawdown. We have taken 70% off the table at the H4 demand area at 1227.6-1230.5 and reduced risk to breakeven. Our next port of call will be February's opening base at 1211.5, followed by the daily support area at 1197.4-1187.7. Well done to any of our readers who also jumped on board this trade!

Our suggestions: For those traders who missed this recent short opportunity, there could be a second chance to get in on any retest seen to the underside of the recently broken H4 demand as supply. However, caution is advised since we have yet to clear the daily support area coming in at 1197.4-1187.7. For us personally, we're happy with our current position at the moment and will not look to pyramid here.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1239.6 ([live order] stop loss: breakeven).

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY indeed made a bullish bounce at the wave 4 (purple) and broke above the resistance (dotted orange) of the falling wedge chart pattern. Now price is challenging the larger resistance trend line (red). A bullish breakout would be part of a wave 3 (blue) within wave 5 (purple).

The USD/JPY broke the resistance (dotted orange) of the triangle chart pattern and is showing strong bullish momentum. The bullish price action could last within the channel (red/green lines). A break below that channel could start a wave 4 (brown) correction and price could bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3. A break below the trend line (green) and the 50% Fib would make a wave4 unlikely.

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is close to a break or bounce decision zone at a support trend line (blue). A bullish bounce could see a larger wave 2 (blue) develop whereas a bearish breakout could see wave 3 (purple) continue.

The EUR/USD is most likely building an ABC (green) zigzag within wave 2 (blue) unless price breaks below the bottom (green line).

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD is building an ABC (blue) correction within wave 4 (purple). The support (blue) and resistance (red) trend lines are critical for a potential breakout towards the larger support (green) or resistance (brown).

The GBP/USD could have built a leading diagonal (grey 5 waves) within wave 1 (purple) but a break below the 100% level invalidates that structure. A break above resistance (red/orange) trend lines is needed before a wave 3 (purple) becomes more likely.

Trump suffers setback in the appeals court ruling

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: China trade balance at multi-month highs as imports and exports top estimates; Trump suffers setback in the appeals court ruling

US Session Highlights

(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 234K V 249KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.08M V 2.06ME (initial claims match lowest level since 1973)

(US) Fed's Bullard (FOMC non-voter, Dovish): Target rate can remain low in 2017; relatively low policy rate remains appropriate

(US) Pres Trump: to make a "phenomenal" tax announcement in the next 2 or 3 weeks - breakfast meeting with airline CEOs

(US) DEC WHOLESALE INVENTORIES (FINAL) M/M: 1.0% V 1.0%E; WHOLESALE TRADE SALES M/M: 2.6% V 0.4% PRIOR

US markets on close: Dow +0.6%, S&P500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.6%

Best Sector in S&P500: Financials

Worst Sector in S&P500: Utilities

Biggest gainers: TDC +8.5%, ALLE +6.1%, UA +5.5%, PXD +5.5%, EFX +5.0%

Biggest losers: DNB -16.8%, COTY -8.6%, SEE -6.1%, MCHP -3.9%, WRK -3.2%

At the close: VIX 10.9 (-0.6pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.19% (+4bps), 10-yr 2.40% (+5bps), 30-yr 3.01% (+5bps)

US movers afterhours

ATVI: Reports Q4 $0.92 (ex deferrals) v $0.76e, R$2.45B v $2.27Be; Announces 2-year $1B shares repurchase (3.4% of market cap); Raises dividend 15% to $0.30 (implied yield 0.8%); guides Q1 $0.51 v $0.33e; Rev $1.55B v $1.22Be; +10.8% afterhours

SKX: Reports Q4 $0.04 v $0.11e, R$764.3M v $724Me; Sales growth of 48.5% in China leads 17.1% increase in international wholesale business; +9.9% afterhours

SWIR: Reports Q4 $0.49 v $0.16e, R$163.0M v $160Me; Volkswagen selects co for 4G LTE embedded modules in models worldwide; +7.5% afterhours

NWSA: Reports Q2 $0.19 v $0.18e, R$2.12B v $2.14Be; +1.6% afterhours

NVDA: Reports Q4 $1.13 v $0.83e, R$2.17B v $2.08Be; +0.3% afterhours

P: Reports Q4 -$0.13 v -$0.20e, R$393M v $378Me; -1.8% afterhours

CERN: Reports Q4 $0.61 v $0.61e, R$1.26B v $1.26Be; -4.1% afterhours

UBNT: Reports Q2 $0.72 v $0.74e, R$213.5M v $205Me; -6.9% afterhours

YELP: Reports Q4 $0.27 v $0.04e, R$195M v $194Me; Guides Q1 adj EBITDA $25-28M, Rev $195-199M v $204Me; -9.3% afterhours

Politics

(US) US 9TH CIRCUIT COURT OF APPEALS UPHOLDS SUSPENSION OF TRUMP'S TRAVEL BAN; DECISION UNANIMOUS (3-0) - press

(US) Mexico border wall estimated to cost $21.6B, above $15B projected estimated from Republican congressional leaders Ran and McConnell - financial press

Asia Key economic data:

(CN) CHINA JAN TRADE BALANCE (USD TERMS): $51.4B (5-month high) V $48.5BE

(CN) CHINA JAN TRADE BALANCE (CNY-TERMS): 354B (1-year high) V 307.3BE

(JP) JAPAN JAN PPI (CGPI) M/M: 0.6% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.5% (22-month high) V 0.0%E

(AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HOME LOANS M/M: 0.4% V 1.0%E (2nd straight increase)

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

After some respite of late, the "Trump trade" flows returned over the past 24 hours, with Treasuries and Gold down and Stocks at new highs led by financials. US president has refocused on the pro-business agenda, promising "phenomenal" tax announcement to CEOs of airlines. Despite suffering a setback ruling by the 9th Court of Appeals - all 3 judges ruled to uphold suspension of his travel ban - sentiment was not dented.

AUD is the standout among FX majors, hitting session highs after China trade surplus beat expectations in both USD and Yuan terms, while components were much stronger than consensus. In USD terms, exports hit a 10-month high and imports a near 4-year high. Imports of hard materials were up double digits thanks to the recent increase in prices. Separately, Pres Obama and Pres Xi reportedly held phone talks where the US leader assured Beijing he would respect "one China" policy after his controversial conversation with Taiwan leader late last year.

BOJ acted in its QE operations to stem the rally in bond yields on the long end, slightly increasing its purchases of 10-25yr maturity. Japan leaders are head to Washington to meet with US officials this weekend.

China:

(CN) US Pres Trump said to have indicated to China Pres Xi that he will respect "one China" policy - FT

Japan:

(JP) BOJ announces amounts to buy in upcoming QE operation; Increases 10-25 yr to ¥200B from ¥190B

Australia/New Zealand:

RBA Gov Lowe: Hard to say that exchange rate is too high - AFR

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)

Nikkei +2.4%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%, ASX200 +1.0%, Kospi +0.5%

Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq +0.2%; Dax +0.3%; FTSE100 +0.2%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)

EUR 1.0650-1.0670; JPY 113.20-113.80; AUD 0.7620-0.7660; NZD 0.7180-0.7205

Apr Gold -0.9% at $1,225/oz; Mar Crude Oil flat at $53.03/brl; Mar Copper -0.2% at $2.65/lb

(CN) China Gold Association: sees China gold consumption at 1.2K tonnes by 2020 v 1.0K tonnes in 2015

USD/CNY (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8819 V 6.8710 PRIOR

(CN) PBOC skips reverse repo operations (6th consecutive day)

(CN) China MOF sells 91-day bonds, avg yield 2.5864%, 182-day bonds, avg yield 2.6499%

Asia equities/Notables/movers by sector

Consumer discretionary: 4911.JP Shiseido Co -7.0% (FY16 result); 9007.JP Odakyu Electric Railway +3.1% (management change speculation); 3197.JP Skylark Co +1.2% (FY16 result); 111770.KR Youngone Corp +6.9% (Daishin sees earnings turnaround in Q2)

Consumer staples: YOW.AU Yowie Group -8.9% (guidance)

Financials: 688.HK China Overseas Land -1.6% (Jan result); 9616.JP Kyoritsu Maintenance +4.1% (9-month result); REA.AU REA Group -1.4% (H1 result); BLA.AU Blue Sky Alternative Investments +8.1% (H1 result); MPL.AU Medibank +1.8% (increase premium)

Industrials: 7312.JP Takata Corp. +2.0% (one-time charge); 9375.JP Kintetsu World Express +15.0% (9-month result); 6305.JP Hitachi Construction Machinery +3.2% (condition satisfied for HCM’s bid); 7201.JP Nissan Motor +1.4% (9-mo result); 7912.JP Dai Nippon Printing +4.7% (9-mo result); 7272.JP Yamaha Motor +7.8% (9-mo result); 1925.JP Daiwa House Industry +2.7% (9-mo result)

Technology: 4938.TW Pegatron Corp +4.4% (Said to be the manufacturer of wireless charging pads for the next iPhone); 3436.JP Sumco Corp -2.6% (largest shareholder to cut stake); 2038.HK FIH Mobile +8.7% (FY16 result); ACX.AU Aconex +7.6%

Materials: 486.HK Rusal -3.3% (not consider secondary offering in UK); Taiwan Cement 1101.TW +5.9% (China cement price hike outlook); BSL.AU Bluescope Steel +5.8% (capital management seen increasing); SGM.AU Sims Metal Management +7.1% (Citi raises rating); 5301.JP Tokai Carbon +14.0% (FY16 result); 5711.JPMitsubishi Materials -4.1% (9-mo result); RSG.AU Resolute Mining -3.8%, NCM.AU Newcrest Mining -3.5% (gold falls)

Energy: AGL.AU AGL Energy +2.8% (RBC cuts rating); 3105.JP Nisshinbo Holdings +7.2% (acquisition); 5021.JP Cosmo Energy Holdings +8.2% (9-mo result)

Healthcare: NHF.AU NIB Holdings +1.5% (to increase premium)

Utilities: 9005.JP Tokyu Corp +3.7% (guidance)