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USD/CHF Monitoring Uptrend Channel

USD/CHF is still riding within uptrend channel and is on its way to monitor hourly support implied by lower bound of the uptrend channel. Key resistance is given at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to consolidate.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Wide-Open Toward Resistance at 1.3599

USD/CAD's bullish pressures are definitely on after breaking key resistance at 1.3353 (20/01/2017 high). Yet, as long as this resistance was not broken (20/01/2017 high), bullishness was limited. Expected to see further upside potential for the pair.

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Short-Term Bullish

AUD/USD's technical structure is still negative. Yet, the pair is bouncing higher. The road is still wide-open for further weakness. Key resistance is given at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high).

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Pushing Higher

EUR/USD continues to strengthen. Hourly resistance given at 1.0679 (16/02/2017 high) has been broken while hourly support at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The technical structure suggests deeper consolidation towards 1.0500. • In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Consolidation

GBP/USD continues to edge lower despite ongoing consolidation since the pair has broken support given at 1.2254 (19/01/2017 low). The road is wide-open for further decline. Hourly resistance is now given at 1.2300 (05/03/2017 high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Failed to Break Resistance at 115.62

USD/JPY is pushing higher towards key resistance given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at 113.56 (06/03/2017 low).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

Oil maintains strong bearish sentiment, generated on last week's steep fall that surged through thick daily cloud and broke below psychological $50 barrier.

Long bearish weekly candle that was formed continues to heavily weigh on the market.

Today's fresh extension below round-figure support at $48.00 met target at $47.90 (FE 238.2% of extended wave C), on which the price is currently riding.

The wave could extend towards next target at $47.32, its 261.8% Fibonacci Expansion, however, consolidative / corrective action could be expected as daily studies are strongly oversold (no firmer bullish signals yet).

Broken 200SMA offers good resistance at $48.71, with base of thick daily cloud (spanned between $50 and $53.11), expected to cap.

Res: 48.71, 50.00, 50.88, 51.58
Sup: 47.90, 47.32, 47.17, 46.38

Spot Gold bounced from correction low at $1194 (the lowest since 31 Jan), where two-week pullback from $1263 peak found footstep.

Pullback was contained just above the top of rising daily cloud ($1193), with recovery attempts struggling at strong $1210 barrier (base of thick weekly cloud) and signaling that corrective action might be limited.

The scenario is supported by daily studies in firm bearish setup that suggest fresh weakness after correction and attack at daily cloud top.

Penetration into daily cloud could trigger bearish acceleration towards $1179/76 (daily cloud base / Fibo 61.8% of larger $1122/$1263 ascend.

However, extended corrective upticks could be anticipated and expected to hold below strong barrier at $1222(Fibo 38.2% of $1263/$1194 pullback, reinforced by falling daily Tenkan-sen line).

Only sustained break here would sideline downside risk and open way for extended correction.

Res: 1210, 1216, 1222, 1229
Sup: 1203, 1200, 1193, 1188

• Traders in wait and see mode after the Fed sets a high bar;
• UK in focus this week with BOE, jobs data and most importantly, the Brexit bill amendments being debated in parliament;
• Oil continues slide as US oil rigs climb and doubts rise over necessary output deal extension.
• It's been a relatively calm start to a week that is likely to be anything but, with European markets broadly mixed and US futures pointing to a flat open.

Traders appear to be in wait and see mode at the start of the week, with attention firmly on the central bank meetings this week, most notably the Federal Reserve on Wednesday when we'll find out if policy makers successfully guided market expectations in the right direction or went too far. The clearly coordinated effort to convince investors that a rate hike is firmly on the table on Wednesday, from a position in which it appeared out the question, has almost worked too well with markets now almost fully pricing one in. The risk is that the Fed now struggles to live up to expectations and should it for whatever reason delay raising interest rates, it may have unintentionally dramatically misguided investors which could result in significant volatility come Wednesday.

The UK will also be in focus this week but it may not necessarily be the Bank of England monetary policy decision or the jobs data that grabs our attention. With Theresa May's end of March article 50 deadline fast approaching, parliament is set to debate two amendments to the bill added by the House of Lords that would guarantee the rights of EU nationals in the UK and give parliament a vote on the final Brexit deal. The vote is particularly important for investors as it would theoretically reduce the possibility of a hard Brexit, the only downside being that in turn it may weaken May's negotiating position.

Should these amendments be approved by parliament today though, it would allow May to trigger article 50 and begin the divorce proceedings as early as tomorrow. There appears to be more appetite than May and some of her colleagues would like for a vote on the deal to be included in the bill, which is helping to support sterling this morning. The pound has come under pressure again as of late, with a number of economic releases appearing to show the economic cracks starting to appear following what has been a much smoother ride since the vote than many anticipated. Should the amendments be approved, it could offer more upside for the pound, with 1.2350-1.24 providing the next test to the upside against the dollar.

Oil remains in focus this morning, once again trading lower after Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil rigs in the US rose by eight to 617, the highest there's been since September 2015. The deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers appears to be having little effect on the glut at the moment, with three of the last four weeks showing substantial inventory increases. Of course, these changes take time to have an impact and non-OPEC compliance is still a little low but with an extension to the deal in doubt, prices are reverting back towards pre-deal levels, although I doubt we'll get close to the lows any time soon.

The DAX Index has posted slight gains on Monday, trading at 11,977.00 in the European session. In economic news, there are no major releases in the Eurozone. ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver remarks on Tuesday. On Tuesday, German releases will be on center stage. ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to climb to 13.2, and Final CPI is forecast to rebound to 0.6%.

On Friday, the DAX dropped below the symbolic 12,000 level, as some ECB policymakers raised the possibility of higher interest rates at last week's policy meeting. At the meeting, the ECB held course and maintained interest rates at a flat 0.00%. The markets were left to pick up on nuances, as ECB President Mario Draghi noted that the central bank removed one phrase from its standard introductory statement – 'using all the instruments available within its mandate'. Draghi stated that the removal of this phrase means that the ECB 'no longer has a sense of urgency in taking further actions …. prompted by the risk of deflation'. With growth and inflation showing signs of improvement, the ECB has been under pressure to tighten policy and reduce its asset-purchase program. Germany, in particular, is unhappy with the ECB's ultra-loose policy and on Thursday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble bluntly stated that he wanted to see a 'timely start to the exit' from the ECB's asset-purchase scheme. For his part, Mario Draghi must balance the improved economy with upcoming elections in the Netherlands and France. Euro-skeptics are a strong force throughout Europe and Draghi is reluctant to make any major moves in the middle of heated political campaigns.

The US economy continues to steam ahead at full speed, buoyed by a red-hot labor market. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls sparkled with a gain of 235 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 196 thousand. The strong release makes it a virtual certainty that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. Although a rate hike has been priced in by the markets, there have been disappointments in the past, so a rate move will likely give the dollar a boost against its major rivals, such as the euro. The solid job numbers also give President Trump a much-needed boost. Trump is under pressure to present an economic agenda, but the markets won't mind giving him some additional breathing room with the economy performing well.

USD/CHF - 1.0077

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback met renewed selling interest at 1.0114 earlier today and has dropped again, suggesting the erratic fall from 1.0171 top is still in progress, however, break of support at 1.0065 is needed to retain bearishness and signal recent erratic rise from 0.9861 has ended and bring further fall to 1.0035-40 but support at 1.0009 should remain intact, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the  meantime. Above 1.0114 would bring test of indicated resistance at 1.0142 but break there is needed to signal low is formed instead, bring further gain towards last week’s high at 1.0171.

GBP/USD - 1.2218

Original strategy :

Bought at 1.2215, Target: 1.2320, Stop: 1.2180

Position : - Long at 1.2215

Target :  - 1.2320

Stop : - 1.,2180

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.2215, Target: 1.2320, Stop: 1.2180

Position : - Long at 1.2215

Target :  - 1.2320

Stop : - 1.2180

Current rally above indicated resistance at 1.2195 suggests a temporary low is possibly formed at 1.2135 last week and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline, hence further gain to 1.2260-65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2471-1.2135) would be seen, however, break of 1.2301-03 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement) is needed to signal low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.2340-45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) later.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.2215\. Below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2190) would defer and risk weakness to 1.2170 but said support at 1.2135 should hold. Only break there would abort and signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.2100.

EUR/USD - 1.0666

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.0660, Target: 1.0760, Stop: 1.0625

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0640, Target: 1.0740, Stop: 1.0610

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has retreated after rising to 1.0714 earlier today, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.0640 (previous resistance now support) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited and bring another rise later, above 1.0714 would signal the erratic rise from 1.0493 low is still in progress and may extend gain to 1.0740-45 (1.5 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525) but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0760 (1.618 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525).

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on further pullback as 1.0540 should limit downside, bring another rise later. Below another previous resistance at 1.0615 would abort and signal top has been formed, risk further fall to 1.0575-80 first. 

The Aussie dollar extended bounce from last week's correction low at 0.7489 on Monday and returned above a cluster of strong supports between 0.7531 and 0.7504 (consisting of 55 / 100 and 200SMA's) that was cracked last week but without clear break lower.

Fresh weakness of the US dollar and strong bullish signals that are generating on the daily chart, suggest further recovery.

Rising daily cloud that so far contained pullback from 0.7739 peak, continues to underpin, with 55/100SMA Golden Cross and another one forming on attempts of rising 55SMA to break above 200SMA, are also seen as supportive factors, along with slow stochastic bullish divergence and reversal from oversold territory.

Extended recovery tested 0.7584 pivot so far (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7739/0.7489 pullback), with next two triggers (daily Tenkan-sen at 0.7593 and daily Kijun-sen at 0.7614) laying above, break f which to generate stronger signals that corrective phase might be over.

Top of rising daily cloud currently lies at 0.7515 and should contain extended corrective dips to keep near-term bulls in play.

Res: 0.7586, 0.7593, 0.7614, 0.7643
Sup: 0.7531, 0.7515, 0.7489, 0.7448