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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.16% against the USD and closed at 0.7587.

LME Copper prices declined 0.8% or $49.0/MT to $5807.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.5% or $10.0/MT to $1858.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7597, with the AUD trading 0.13% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Earlier today, China, Australia's largest trading partner, posted an unexpected trade deficit of CNY60.4 billion in February, as a sharp rise in imports outpaced a modest increase in exports. Markets expected the nation to post a surplus of CNY172.5 billion and following a surplus of CNY354.5 billion in the preceding month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7574, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7551. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7626, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7655.

With no major economic releases in Australia today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

USD/CHF - 1.0136

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 1.0134

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.0140

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0110

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 1.0106

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.0110, Target: 1.0210, Stop: 1.0075

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0110, Target: 1.0210, Stop: 1.0075

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Dollar’s retreat after yesterday’s rise to 1.0171 suggests top has been formed and consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.0105-10 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.0171 would confirm recent erratic upmove from 0.9861 has resumed for further gain towards 1.0200-10 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond previous chart resistance at 1.0248, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on pullback as 1.0100-10 should limit downside. Only break of indicated support at 1.0073 would suggest top is formed instead, risk weakness to 1.0040-45 but reckon support at 1.0009 would remain intact.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.0565.

In economic news, the Euro-zone' seasonally adjusted final gross domestic product (GDP) was confirmed at 0.4% on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2016, at par with market expectations, buoyed by a rebound in investment spending and an increase in private consumption. In the previous quarter, the region's GDP had registered a revised similar rise.

Separately, Germany's seasonally adjusted factory orders slid more-than-expected by 7.4% on a monthly basis in January, declining at its steepest pace in eight years, amid weaker demand for investment goods. Market participants anticipated for a drop of 2.5%, compared to a rise of 5.2% in the prior month.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in its latest economic outlook report, retained its 2017 growth projection for the Euro-zone at 1.6%, but the outlook for next year was slashed to 1.6%.

Additionally, the OECD projected that global economic growth is set to continue a “modest recovery over the next two years and maintained its earlier growth forecast of around 3.3% this year and 3.6% in 2018, but warned that the modest recovery may be derailed by financial vulnerabilities and political uncertainties.

In the US, data indicated that trade deficit widened to a level of $48.5 billion in January, at par with market expectations and compared a deficit of $44.3 billion in the previous month. Also, the nation's IBD/TIPP economic optimism index dropped to a level of 55.3 in March, following a reading of 56.4 in the prior month. On the other hand, the nation's consumer credit grew by $8.8 billion in January, compared to market consensus for it to rise by $17.1 billion and after climbing by a revised $14.8 billion in December.

Meanwhile, the OECD revised up its 2017 growth forecast for US as it expects economic growth to pick up this year on fiscal stimulus plans. It lifted its growth projections to 2.4% for this year, while the forecast for next year was trimmed to 2.8% from 3.0%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0564, with the EUR trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0546, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0528. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0592, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0620.

Moving ahead, investors will look forward to German industrial production for January, scheduled to release in a few hours. Moreover, in the US, ADP employment change for February and wholesale inventories for January, both scheduled to release later in the day, will garner a lot of market attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.31% against the USD and closed at 1.2202.

On the macro front, UK's seasonally adjusted Halifax house price index rose 0.1% MoM in February, undershooting market expectations for an advance of 0.4% and following a revised drop of 1.1% in the prior month.

Separately, the OECD predicted the UK economy to expand by 1.6% this year, sharply up from its prior prediction of 1.2% in November, due to a less severe impact from Brexit than it anticipated. However, it still expects Brexit to impose a drag on GDP growth in 2017 and 2018.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2208, with the GBP trading a tad higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2166, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2124. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2251, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2294.

Moving ahead, investors will eye UK's spring budget, due to be announced later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the JPY and closed at 113.97.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 113.68, with the USD trading 0.25% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan’s final gross domestic product (GDP) was revised up to 0.3% QoQ in 4Q 2016, compared to market anticipations for an advance of 0.4% and following a similar rise in the prior quarter. On the contrary, the nation’s (BOP basis) trade deficit stood at ¥853.4 billion in January, compared to market expectations for the nation to record a deficit of ¥800.2 billion. Meanwhile, the nation had registered a surplus of ¥806.8 billion in the previous month.

Earlier today, the nation’s flash leading economic index rose more than expected to a level of 105.5 in January, compared to investor consensus of a rise to a level of 105.4 and following a reading of 104.8 in the prior month. Also, the nation’s flash coincident index surprisingly climbed to a level of 114.9 in January, defying market expectations of a drop to a level of 114.3 and after recording a reading of 114.8 in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 113.48, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 113.28. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.34.

Looking ahead, traders would await the release of Japan’s preliminary machine tool orders for February, due to release tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.08% against the CHF and closed at 1.0128.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0130, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0099, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0069. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0165, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0201.

Going ahead, market participants will focus on Switzerland's inflation figures for February, due to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

GBP/USD - 1.2205

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2206

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2205

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2258

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2250

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has recovered after falling to 1.2169 yesterday, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to the lower Kumo (now at 1.2250) is likely, however, reckon upside would be limited and renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.2301 resistance, bring another decline, break of said support at 1.2169 would extend recent selloff to 1.2150 but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2120-25 and reckon 1.2100 would hold, bring another rebound later. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to look to sell cable on subsequent rebound as 1.2301 resistance should cap upside. Above 1.2325-30 would suggest a temporary low is formed instead, risk rebound to previous support at 1.2347 first.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD marginally rose against the CAD and closed at 1.3409.

Macroeconomic data revealed that Canada's seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI unexpectedly eased to a level of 55.0 in February, compared to a reading of 57.2 in the prior month and confounding market consensus for the PMI to climb to a level of 58.5. In contrast, the nation's international merchandise trade surplus rose more-than-estimated to a level of C$0.81 billion in January, compared to a revised international merchandise trade surplus of C$0.45 billion in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3401, with the USD trading 0.06% lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3376, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3352. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.343, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.346.

Ahead in the day, Canada's housing starts for February and building permits for January, will be closely watched by market participants.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/USD - 1.0565

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0566

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0581

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0595

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0575

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.0535, Target: 1.0635, Stop: 1.0500

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0535, Target: 1.0635, Stop: 1.0500

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the single currency has remained under pressure after retreating from 1.0640 and near term downside risk remains for weakness to 1.0540-45, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0530 and bring another rebound later, above 1.0600-05 would bring test of said resistance at 1.0640 but break there is needed to extend the erratic rise from 1.0493 low for retracement of early decline to 1.0660-65 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0829-1.0493) and possibly towards resistance at 1.0680, however, price should falter well below 1.0700-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on dips. Below 1.0510 would abort and risk retest of 1.0493 but only break there would shift risk back to the downside and signal recent decline from 1.0829 has resumed for further selloff to 1.0470 and then towards previous support at 1.0454.

USD/JPY - 113.73

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 113.82

Kijun-Sen level                  : 113.88

Ichimoku cloud top             : 114.16

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 113.89

Original strategy  :

Sell at 114.55, Target: 113.55, Stop: 114.85

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 114.55, Target: 113.55, Stop: 114.85

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at 114.15 yesterday and test of support at 113.56 cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to add credence to our view that top has been formed at 114.75, bring retracement of recent rise to 113.20-25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 111.69-114.75), however, downside would be limited to 113.00 and 112.84-86 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring rebound later. If said support continues to hold, then further consolidation would take place and another bounce to 114.15 cannot be ruled out but upside should be limited to 114.50-55 and bring another decline.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and we are looking to sell dollar on recovery for such move as 114.50-55 should limit upside, bring another decline. Only above said resistance at 114.75 would abort and signal the rise from 111.69 has resumed and extend gain to 114.96 (previous resistance) but price should falter well below resistance at 115.38.