Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1028; (P) 1.1086; (R1) 1.1127; More....

No change in EUR/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral for consolidations below 1.1213 short term top. Further rally is still expected 1.1001 cluster support holds (38.2% retracement of 1.0665 to 1.1213 at 1.1004). Break of 1.1213 will target 1.1274 high. However, decisive break of 1.1001/4 will confirm near term bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1274 should have completed at 1.0665 already. Decisive break of 1.1274 (2023 high) will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0665 at 1.1740. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.1001 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3218; (P) 1.3304; (R1) 1.3370; More...

Outlook in GBP/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Another rally is still in favor as long as 1.3265 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.3433 will resume the rise from 1.2298. However, firm break of 1.3265 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3000 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3141 from 1.2298 at 1.4022. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3000 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8438; (P) 0.8460; (R1) 0.8488; More…

USD/CHF is still bounded in range trading and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.8374 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to retest 0.8332 low. Decisive break there will indicate larger down trend resumption. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8548 will argue that it's correcting whole fall from 0.9223. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8698 at least.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.85; (P) 143.69; (R1) 144.41; More...

USD/JPY rebounded strongly today and focus is now on 146.48 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rebound from 139.57 to 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 148.11. On the downside, below 141.63 will turn bias to the downside for 139.57 support. But in this case, strong support could be seen again from 139.26 fibonacci level to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to contain downside, at least on first attempt. But in any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.35 resistance holds. Sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Japanese Yen weakened notably in early US session, reacting to rising US Treasury yields, which were boosted by stronger-than-expected US ADP job data. Adding to Yen’s decline, Japan’s new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who was initially perceived as a monetary hawk, has softened his stance on interest rate hikes. After meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, Ishiba said he does not believe it is the right time for the BoJ to raise rates further, dampening expectations of another rate hike in December.

Reinforcing this dovish tone, Japan's newly appointed Economy Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, emphasized in a press conference that Japan's "top priority" is to ensure a "complete exit from deflation." Akazawa further clarified that Ishiba’s previous comments on monetary Japanese Yen weakened notably in early US session, reacting to rising US Treasury yields, which were boosted by stronger-than-expected US ADP job data. Adding to Yen’s decline, Japan’s new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who was initially perceived as a monetary hawk, has softened his stance on interest rate hikes. After meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, Ishiba said he does not believe it is the right time for the BoJ to raise rates further, dampening expectations of another rate hike in December.policy normalization were contingent on several "conditions," signaling that any rate hikes would depend on broader economic circumstances.

Elsewhere, Dollar has strengthened against both Yen and Swiss Franc but is struggling to extend its recovery against other major currencies. Traders are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for developments in the Middle East and key US economic reports, including ISM Services PMI and non-farm payrolls data, which could impact sentiment and influence Fed's policy outlook.

In terms of performance today, Australian Dollar is leading the market, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar. Yen is the worst performer, followed by Swiss Franc and Dollar, while Euro and British Pound are trading in middle positions.

Techinically, USD/CHF is worth a watch in the next 24 hours given then Swiss CPI data will be released tomorrow. Break of 0.8548 resistance will suggest that rebound from 0.8374 is at least correcting the whole decline from 0.9223. In this case, further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8698 at least.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.11%. DAX is down -0.58%. CAC is down -0.08%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.099at 4.043. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.065 at 2.106. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -2.18%. Hong Kong HSI rose 6.20%. China was on holiday. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.10%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.0331 to 0.820.

US ADP employment rises 143K, wage growth slows

US ADP report for September showed private employment increased by 143k, surpassing expectations of 120k. The goods-producing sector added 42k jobs, while the service-providing sectors contributed 101k new jobs.

By establishment size, small companies saw a loss of -8k jobs, while medium-sized businesses added 64k and large companies increased their workforce by 86k.

Wage growth continued to slow, with year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers easing to 4.7%. The decline was more pronounced for job-changers, whose wage growth fell from 7.3% to 6.6%.

Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, noted that "stronger hiring didn't require stronger pay growth last month." She also pointed out that the premium job-changers usually enjoy over job-stayers narrowed to 1.9%, matching the low last seen in January.

ECB's de Guindos cites weaker growth outlook, expects recovery to strengthen over time

In a speech today, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos acknowledged that Eurozone growth was weaker than expected in Q2, leading to a downward revision in the growth outlook for the region. He added that risks to growth remain "tilted to the downside".

Despite this, de Guindos expressed optimism for the future, expecting the recovery to "strengthen over time". He cited rising real incomes and the waning impact of restrictive monetary policy as key factors that should bolster consumption and investment. Additionally, he pointed to boost in exports as global demand improves, contributing to the recovery.

Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%, EU down to 5.9%

Eurozone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4% in August, aligning with market expectations. Meanwhile, EU unemployment rate fell slightly from 6.0% to 5.9%.

The report estimates that 13.027m people in EU, including 10.925m in Eurozone, were unemployed in August. Compared with the previous month, unemployment decreased by -108k across EU and by -94k within Eurozone.

On an annual basis, the improvement was even more notable. Compared to August 2023, the number of unemployed people dropped by -142k in EU and by -233k in Eurozone.

BoJ’s Ueda vows extremely high vigilance amid domestic and global economic uncertainties

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed today that Japan's economy is expected to sustain a moderate recovery, which should support underlying inflation in converging toward 2% target over the coming years. However, Ueda did not repeat the usual pledge to continue raising interest rates if inflation moves in line with forecasts, signaling a shift in tone towards a more cautious approach.

Ueda highlighted the ongoing uncertainties surrounding Japan's economy and inflation, stating that "uncertainty regarding Japan's economy and prices remain high." He also pointed to external risks, noting that the outlook for overseas economies, including the US, remains unclear, while financial markets continue to show signs of instability.

Given these risks, Ueda emphasized the need for "extremely high vigilance" in assessing economic developments. For now, BoJ will maintain a cautious stance, closely scrutinizing both domestic and global factors before tightening monetary policy again.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.85; (P) 143.69; (R1) 144.41; More...

USD/JPY rebounded strongly today and focus is now on 146.48 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rebound from 139.57 to 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 148.11. On the downside, below 141.63 will turn bias to the downside for 139.57 support. But in this case, strong support could be seen again from 139.26 fibonacci level to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to contain downside, at least on first attempt. But in any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.35 resistance holds. Sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the first nine months of 2024, the GBP/CAD exchange rate rose by over 7%, surpassing the significant 1.800 level.

The last time GBP/CAD remained consistently above this level was back in 2016, but it later dropped below. Since then, bulls have made two attempts to push the price above 1.800: in 2018 and again in 2020 (during the coronavirus panic) – both of which failed.

A third attempt occurred when GBP/CAD climbed above 1.800 in September 2024, but yesterday’s large bearish candles (marked with an arrow) suggest that this attempt to stay above 1.800 may also fail.

Yesterday’s decline in GBP/CAD was driven by a combination of factors, including:

→ A rise in oil prices, which strengthens the Canadian dollar as Canada is a major exporter of oil;

→ A slowdown in manufacturing activity in the UK during September, as reported by Reuters.

Technical analysis of the GBP/CAD chart shows the price is moving within an ascending channel (marked in blue), which has remained relevant since the start of 2024.

Support levels for the price could be

→ The 1.78500 level (which acted as resistance from mid-July before being broken in September);

→ The median line of the ascending channel;

→ The orange trendline.

However, it is possible that these support levels may not be strong enough to ensure that GBP/CAD can consistently hold above the 1.800 level, which has historically acted as key resistance.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The yen is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the European session, the USD/JPY is trading at 144.82 at the time of writing, up 0.89%.

New finance minister makes markets uneasy

In Japan, the dust is yet to settle on the political drama. On Tuesday, the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, appointed Katsunobu Kato as finance minister. Kato is a supporter of “Abenomics” which advocates monetary easing. This could complicate the BoJ’s plans to tighten policy and the yen has responded with sharp losses today.

Ishiba is on record for supporting a tighter policy but may have chosen Kato to ease concerns that Ishiba will make a significant shift in monetary policy with a snap election on October 27. The election will be followed by the next BoJ meeting on October 31, with the BoJ expected to maintain its policy settings.
Japan and US manufacturing PMIs continue to contract

Manufacturing continues to sputter in both the US and Japan. The Japanese manufacturing PMI eased to a revised 49.7 in September, down from 49.8 in August and above the market estimate of 49.6. This was the third straight month of contraction in factory activity, with a strong decrease in export orders. Business confidence dropped to its lowest since December 2022, as manufacturers don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel for the troubled manufacturing sector.

In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI was unchanged in September at 47.2, below the market estimate of 47.5. The contraction in manufacturing has extended for six straight months. New orders decreased in September, demand remains weak and manufacturers face uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the upcoming US election.

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 143.69 and 144.41. Above, there is resistance at 145.25
• There is support at 142.85 and 142.13

Oil price extends strong rise into second consecutive day, advancing 1.6% during European session on Wednesday, following 3.45% advance on Tuesday (the biggest daily gain since Aug 12).

Growing fears that further escalation of the war in the Middle East could disrupt crude supply from the region, lifted oil prices significantly during past two sessions.

The latest rally improved the structure on daily chart, as the price rose above 50% retracement of $77.57/$65.26 bear-leg and psychological $70 level, underpinned by strong positive momentum and 10/20DMA’s in bullish configuration.

Bulls pressure pivotal resistance at $72.38 (Sep 24 lower top), break of which to generate fresh bullish signal on completion of bullish failure swing pattern on daily chart and soften strong bearish structure on weekly chart (multiple MA Death crosses / strong negative momentum).

Broken daily Kijun-sen ($71.08) should ideally contain dips and maintain bullish bias.

Caution on breach of $70 level (reinforced by 10DMA), which reverted to solid support and marks a breakpoint.

Fundamentals, however, are likely to play a key role in coming days, with further conflict escalation to provide fresh boost to oil price and open way for stronger upside acceleration.

Res: 72.38; 72.87; 73.37; 74.27.
Sup: 71.41; 70.88; 70.00; 69.26.

Brent crude oil prices climbed to 74.55 USD per barrel by Wednesday, marking a significant increase driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The previous session saw prices surge by over 2% as fears grew over potential crude oil shortages due to the intensifying conflict in the region, particularly with Iran's heightened involvement.

Iran, a key member of OPEC, holds substantial influence over global oil supplies. Its assertive stance in the Middle East conflict raises concerns about disruptions in energy exports, which could tighten the global oil market and push prices higher.

Mixed market sentiments

Despite the upward pressure from geopolitical factors, the overall sentiment in the oil market remains mixed. One of the dampening factors is the weak demand from China, the world's largest oil importer. China's sluggish economic indicators have limited the potential for a sustained recovery in oil prices, as reduced industrial activity translates to lower energy consumption.

Adding to the complex market dynamics, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels during the week. This decline was less than the anticipated drop of 2.1 million barrels, marking the second consecutive weekly decrease but suggesting that demand may not be as robust as expected.

Furthermore, the appreciating US dollar has not yet significantly impacted crude oil prices but could do so in the future. Typically, a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially reducing global demand and applying downward pressure on prices.

Technical analysis of Brent crude oil

On the H4 chart, Brent crude found support at 69.90 USD, forming an upward wave targeting the 75.50 USD level. After reaching this point, a correction back to 72.66 USD is possible. Subsequently, there is potential for a new bullish wave extending to 78.20 USD, which serves as a local target. The MACD indicator technically supports this scenario; its signal line is below zero but trending sharply upwards, indicating increasing bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, Brent broke above the 72.66 USD level and reached a local target at 75.30 USD. A consolidation range is expected to form below this level. A corrective move back to 72.66 USD (retesting from above) is possible, potentially leading to a downward exit from the consolidation. Once this correction is completed, the price may resume upward towards 75.50 USD, the initial target. The Stochastic oscillator technically confirms this outlook, with its signal line below the 80 level and preparing to decline, suggesting a short-term correction before further gains.

Conclusion

The interplay of escalating geopolitical tensions and mixed economic signals continues to influence Brent crude oil prices. While concerns over supply disruptions due to Middle Eastern conflicts push prices upward, weak demand from China and inventory data from the US temper this rise. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar could impact global oil demand in the near future. Traders and investors should closely monitor these factors, as they will likely contribute to continued volatility in the oil market.

US ADP report for September showed private employment increased by 143k, surpassing expectations of 120k. The goods-producing sector added 42k jobs, while the service-providing sectors contributed 101k new jobs.

By establishment size, small companies saw a loss of -8k jobs, while medium-sized businesses added 64k and large companies increased their workforce by 86k.

Wage growth continued to slow, with year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers easing to 4.7%. The decline was more pronounced for job-changers, whose wage growth fell from 7.3% to 6.6%.

Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, noted that "stronger hiring didn't require stronger pay growth last month." She also pointed out that the premium job-changers usually enjoy over job-stayers narrowed to 1.9%, matching the low last seen in January.

Full US ADP employment release here.