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USD/CHF turned into consolidations last week and recovered, but overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770 will pave the way to retest 0.7603 low. However, break of 0.7933 resistance will bring stronger rise back to retest 0.8041 high.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8059) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7221 but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations first. On the upside, firm break of 0.7221 will extend larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. On the downside, break of 0.7076 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It's still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6730) holds.

USD/CAD fell to as low as 1.3629 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665 will pave the way to retest 1.3480 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.3729 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3590) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

GBP/JPY stayed in consolidations below 215.89 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 213.29 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.47) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 184.82) holds.

EUR/JPY stayed in sideway trading last week and the development suggests that it's merely in a near term consolidations. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 182.56 to 187.93 at 185.87 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 187.93 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.78 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 177.29) holds.

EUR/GBP's extended decline last week suggests that rebound from 0.8610 has completed at 0.8740 already. But as a temporary low was formed at 0.8652, initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.8652 will resume the fall from 0.8740 to retest 0.8610 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8685 support turned resistance will dampen this view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8740 again.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6842 extended lower to 1.6340 last week. But a temporary low should be in place on loss of momentum. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6497 support turned resistance holds. Below 1.6340 will target a retest on 1.6125 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6497 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7129) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6601) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.

EUR/CHF edged lower to 0.9159 last week but recovered just ahead of 0.9155 support. Outlook is unchanged and initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations below 0.9264. Further rally is expected with 0.9155 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9277) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) holds. However, firm break of 0.9407 will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.

Monday, Apr 27, 2026

Tuesday, Apr 28, 2026

Wednesday, Apr 29, 2026

Thursday, Apr 30, 2026

Friday, May 1, 2026

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed to new intraday records, propelled by diplomatic hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East & tech performance.
• The week ahead features meetings from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England as well as tech earnings releases.
• The Bank of Japan is the "wild card" facing pressure for a surprise hike, while markets will also focus on China’s Manufacturing PMI, which is at risk of slipping back into contraction.

Global markets find themselves at a crossroads as the week draws to a close, with the narrative shifting between geopolitical caution and corporate optimism. While the US Dollar eased slightly on Friday, it remains on track for a weekly gain as traders weigh the potential for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.

The Greenback’s trajectory has been a reflection of the broader market’s "wait-and-see" approach; optimism over a near-term peace deal has provided temporary relief, while the looming threat of prolonged energy disruptions continues to act as a floor for the currency.

The Dollar Index (DXY) dipped 0.11% to 98.71 during Friday's session, yet it is still eyeing a 0.50% gain for the week. This relative strength has kept the Euro and Sterling under pressure, with the EUR/USD pair trending toward a 0.53% weekly loss despite a modest intraday recovery to $1.1699.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen saw a slight flight-to-safety bid, strengthening to 159.62.

The geopolitical premium is most visible in the energy sector, where Brent and WTI crude have surged 16% and 11% respectively this week, their second-largest gains since the onset of hostilities, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralyzed.

In the equity space, the mood is decidedly more bullish. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed to new intraday records on Friday, propelled by a dual engine of diplomatic hope and tech outperformance. Reports that Iran’s Foreign Minister is headed to Islamabad for peace talks, coupled with news that US envoys, including Jared Kushner, are set for Pakistan-mediated negotiations have offered a glimmer of hope for de-escalation.

This sentiment was further bolstered by a surge in Intel shares, which helped the technology sector shrug off the release of DeepSeek’s latest AI model and lead the broader market higher.

Earnings season is also providing a sturdy foundation for investor confidence. With over 80% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations thus far, the focus now shifts to a high-stakes week ahead. Five of the "Magnificent Seven" megacaps are scheduled to report, representing a significant portion of the index's market cap.

As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eye their fourth consecutive week of gains, the longest streak since late 2024, the market's resilience will be tested by whether these corporate giants can justify their valuations amidst a backdrop of lingering inflation concerns and a volatile geopolitical landscape.

Source: LSEG

Week Ahead: Central Banks Walk a Tightrope as Geopolitical Tensions Refuse to Thaw

Markets enter the final week of April facing a familiar, albeit intensifying, conundrum. While the "higher for longer" narrative was the theme of 2025, the spring of 2026 is shaping up to be defined by a "wait and see" stalemate. As we look toward the week starting April 26, the spotlight is firmly fixed on a trifecta of central bank meetings with the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, all of whom find themselves caught between sticky energy-led inflation and a fragile global growth outlook.

Central Banks: All Bark and No Bite?

The overarching theme for the coming week is the "balancing problem" facing global policymakers. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has kept oil prices buoyant, complicating the inflation path just as markets were hoping for a dovish pivot.

The Fed (Wednesday): Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a steady hand in what is scheduled to be his final meeting as Chair. While the US economy continues to show resilience—with 1Q GDP expected to rebound to 2.7%—the core PCE deflator remains a thorn in the side of the FOMC. Expect a "hold" decision, with Powell likely emphasizing that while the labor market risks are skewed to the downside, the inflation fight is far from over.

The ECB & BoE (Thursday): Across the Atlantic, the story is remarkably similar. Both the ECB and the Bank of England are expected to keep rates unchanged. For the ECB, Thursday’s flurry of data (GDP and April inflation) will serve as a reality check. In the UK, Governor Andrew Bailey faces a market that has recently ignored his attempts to talk down rate hike expectations. The challenge for both will be maintaining a hawkish bias to keep inflation expectations anchored without accidentally triggering a deeper economic downturn.

Asia in Focus: BoJ and China’s PMI

While the West grapples with policy inertia, the Asia-Pacific region is bracing for potential volatility.

Bank of Japan (Tuesday): This is the "wild card" of the week. While the consensus leans toward a hold, a surprise hike remains on the table. With Tokyo CPI expected to accelerate and real interest rates deeply negative, the BoJ is under immense pressure to react. Watch the quarterly outlook report for upward revisions to the 2026/27 inflation forecasts.

China PMI (Thursday): After a brief foray into expansionary territory, China’s manufacturing PMI is at risk of slipping back into contraction (49.9 expected). Any sign of cooling demand in the world’s second-largest economy could weigh heavily on commodity-linked currencies and broader risk sentiment.

Australia’s Inflation (Wednesday): High oil prices are expected to push Australian CPI toward the 4.6% mark. This hot print could force the RBA’s hand as early as May, putting the "Aussie" dollar in the crosshairs.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY)

From a technical standpoint, The DXY is currently testing an inflection point after a sharp recovery from January lows. Having broken below a rising ascending channel, the index has stalled, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum as it hovers around the 100 and 200-day MAs.

Key Technical Observations:

• Resistance: The 99.56 handle remains the immediate ceiling. A failure to break this level could lead to a deeper pullback. The catalyst may be some form of deal between the US and Iran.
• Support: Immediate support sits at the confluence of the MA 100/200 (approx. 98.50). A failure to break above the 99.00 level would keep bears in the driver's seat.
• Indicators: The RSI (bottom) sits at 45.726, showing a bearish lean after the recent "Pivot" high.

The trend is currently neutral-to-bearish. Watch for a decisive close below the 97.70 handle to confirm a deeper correction toward 97.00.

Conversely, a daily close above 100.61 invalidates the bearish setup.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, April 24, 2025

Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge)

Key Catalysts

The primary barometer for risk. A hawkish "hold" from the Fed could see the Greenback challenge recent highs, particularly if GDP data surprises to the upside.

Conversely, should the BoJ opt for a hawkish surprise, expect a sharp unwinding of JPY carry trades, which could spark a broader "risk-off" move across equity markets.

The upcoming week is less about what central bankers do and more about what they say they might do in June. With inflation proving stickier than anticipated and growth figures beginning to show the cracks of high-interest rates, the margin for error has never been thinner.

Traders should remain nimble in a week where the data and the rhetoric are likely to pull in opposite directions.