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AUD/USD's fall from 0.7277 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 0.7277 to 0.7076 from 0.7200 at 0.6999. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 0.6875. Near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7200 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement o f0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on on the upside. Rise from 1.3549 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290 next. On the downside, below 1.3865 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will keep the decline intact, and bring another fall through 1.3480 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3981 will argue that the decline has completed, and set up further rise back to retest 1.4791 instead.

GBP/JPY's break of 213.29 support suggests that rebound from 210.43 has completed with three waves up to 215.50. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 216.58. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 210.43/211.23 support zone. For now, risk will be mildly on the downside as long as 215.59 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.77) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

EUR/JPY's break of 184.42 support suggests that rebound from 182.01 has completed with three waves up to 186.18. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 187.93. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 182.01 support next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 186.18 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.95) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. On the upside, break of 0.8728 resistance will bring stronger rally back towards 0.8740 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral again range trading continues. On the upside, break of 1.6381 will resume the rebound from 1.6108 short term bottom to 100% projection of 1.6108 to 1.6381 from 1.6186 at 1.6459. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.6628. Risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.6186 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is back on the upside with breach of 0.9191 temporary top. Rise from 0.9094 should target a retest on 0.9264 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. On the downside, below 0.9155 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) should still be in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. However, decisive break of 0.9394 will be an important sign of medium term bullish reversal.

The dollar keeps firm tone and hits new nine-week high on Monday, extending Friday’s rally (dollar was up 0.65%) and probed above psychological $100 barrier for the first time since early April.

Much better than expected US May labor data (NFP) signaled that labor market continues to strengthen and add to prospects for Fed rate hike, as prolonged uncertainty over the war in the Middle East fuels inflation, as well as dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

Technical picture on daily chart is firmly bullish and contributes to supportive fundamentals, with sustained break above $100 to confirm positive signal and open way for attack at key barriers at 100.32/48 (Nov 2025 / Mar 2026 peaks) guarding 100.94 (Fibo 38.2% of 110.00/95.35 Jan 2025 / Jan 2026 downtrend).

However, overbought stochastic, sideways-moving RSI, just under the overbought zone boundary and south-turned 14-d momentum, warn that bulls may take a breather for consolidation / limited pullback.

Recent range top at $99.50 zone and broken Fibo 61.8% ($99.30) offer solid supports which should contain potential dips and keep bullish structure intact.

Res: 100.32; 100.48; 100.94; 101.22
Sup: 99.75; 99.50; 99.30; 99.00

EUR/USD began the new week at 1.1520. The US dollar ended last week with gains of more than 1% following a strong US labour market report. In May 2026, the US economy added 172,000 jobs, significantly above the market forecast of 85,000. The data exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy.

The strong employment figures bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance and could even raise interest rates before the end of the year.

Markets have little doubt that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting. However, expectations of further policy tightening by the end of 2026 continue to rise.

The situation in the Middle East continues to support the US dollar. Negotiations between the US and Iran have effectively stalled, while renewed tensions have kept oil prices above USD 90 per barrel. Elevated energy prices are increasing inflation risks and boosting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Against this backdrop, the euro has come under significant pressure. Energy-related risks facing European economies remain a key factor weighing on the single currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around the 1.1525 level, currently extending between 1.1510 and 1.1538. A breakout to the upside could trigger a corrective move towards 1.1570, while a downside breakout would open the way for a decline towards 1.1444.

The MACD indicator supports the bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, indicating sustained downside momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1525 and is now consolidating around this level. Further consolidation within the range is expected, with potential extensions towards 1.1500 on the downside and 1.1570 on the upside. After that, a move lower towards 1.1444 remains the preferred scenario.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line at 80 and turning lower towards 20, signalling growing bearish momentum in the short term.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as strong US economic data, expectations of prolonged restrictive Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical tensions continue to support the dollar. While a short-term corrective rebound cannot be ruled out, technical indicators suggest that the broader bearish trend remains intact.

Eurozone investor confidence improved for a second consecutive month in June, with Sentix Investor Confidence rising from -16.4 to -13.4, slightly above expectations of -13.8. The Current Situation Index climbed from -21.5 to -20.0, while the Expectations Index improved notably from -11.3 to -6.5, suggesting investors are becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook after the sharp deterioration seen earlier this year.

According to Sentix, the recovery follows the severe hit to sentiment in March and April caused by the Iran conflict and the resulting surge in oil prices. Concerns about a significant economic slowdown have eased as economic prospects in the US and Asia have improved, providing fresh support for global growth. The Eurozone has also benefited from the more favorable international backdrop, though the recovery remains less dynamic than in other major regions.

However, inflation remains a key concern. Sentix noted that higher energy prices continue to fuel worries about persistent price pressures despite a modest improvement in its inflation barometer from -43 to -38. Germany remains a particular weak spot, with sluggish domestic performance weighing on the broader Eurozone recovery. The survey reinforces expectations that ECB will maintain a vigilant stance on inflation, with markets already anticipating a rate hike at this week's policy meeting.

Full Eurozone Sentix release here.