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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9132; (P) 0.9164; (R1) 0.9183; More....

EUR/CHF's fall resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Decisive break of 161.8% projection of 0.9394 to 0.9268 from 0.9347 at 0.9143 extend larger down trend to 261.8% projection at 0.9017. On the upside, though, break of 0.9209 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, another rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9350) keeps outlook bearish. Downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9178 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

The Eurozone economy ended 2025 on slightly firmer footing, with GDP rising 0.3% qoq in Q4, modestly above expectations of 0.2%. Growth in the wider European Union matched that pace. On an annual basis, GDP expanded 1.3% yoy in the Eurozone and 1.4% yoy in the EU, easing slightly from Q3 but still consistent with a slow and uneven recovery.

Country-level figures showed a broadly constructive picture. Lithuania (+1.7%) led quarterly gains, followed by Spain and Portugal (both +0.8%), while Ireland (-0.6%) was the only member state to record a contraction. Year-on-year growth was positive in the vast majority of reporting countries, highlighting resilience despite ongoing structural and policy headwinds.

Full Eurozone GDP release here.

EUR/USD fell to 1.1919 on Friday. Despite this movement, the week ends with the US dollar experiencing its second consecutive decline. Pressure on the USD is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about economic policy in Washington, which is reducing investor confidence in the dollar.

The focus is on recent statements by US President Donald Trump. He threatened tariffs against countries supplying oil to Cuba and also warned Iran of possible military strikes if it refused to sign a nuclear agreement. An additional source of uncertainty was Trump's promise to announce the candidacy of a new Fed chair on Friday morning, following sustained pressure on Jerome Powell to cut rates more aggressively.

In parallel, the White House and Senate Democrats reached a preliminary agreement that avoids a government shutdown. This partially reduced short-term fiscal risks.

Earlier in the week, the dollar fell to levels not seen in almost four years after Trump expressed no concern about its weakening. Later, the US currency was supported by statements from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who remains committed to a strong dollar policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed a wave of growth towards 1.2080. A repeated breakdown of this resistance level may signal a continuation of the uptrend. At this stage, the pair is continuing the correction wave towards the support level of 1.1875. Technically, the correction scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its histogram and signal line both above zero, forming a downward wave. Upon completion of the correction, we anticipate the uptrend continuing towards 1.2045 and subsequently to 1.2200, with possible corrections along the way.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a correction after testing the resistance level. A rebound from the support level of 1.1860 would signal the formation of a new growth wave. The Stochastic oscillator's signal lines are pointing towards level 80, suggesting the uptrend may continue. Subsequently, the target for growth may be 1.2045.

Conclusion

In summary, while the EUR/USD pair has experienced a corrective pullback, the fundamental backdrop of geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty continues to weigh on the US dollar, underpinning the euro's relative strength. Technically, the correction appears poised to complete near key support levels, with indicators on both the H4 and H1 timeframes suggesting a high probability of resuming the prevailing upward trend. The overall bias remains bullish for a potential test of higher resistance zones.

In our 21 January note, titled “Bitcoin Falls Below $90k: Why Does It Matter?”, we confirmed the relevance of a system of two trend channels and highlighted that the price was sitting at the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel, which had previously acted as strong support in 2025.

In that analysis, we:

→ examined the fundamental drivers behind the price decline;

→ identified a series of bearish signals reflected in BTC/USD price swings;

→ pointed to persistent selling pressure and a growing risk of a support break.

As the Bitcoin price chart shows since then:

→ the lower boundary proved its role as support once more, triggering a rebound (marked by an arrow) on 25–26 January;

→ however, bullish momentum only carried the price up to the psychological $90k level, which acted as resistance on 28 January.

Following this, Bitcoin began to move lower. During the decline, the price successfully broke the key support level, with accelerating downward momentum in BTC/USD confirming that the support had lost its strength.

The lower boundary of the red channel may still act as support, while a potential break below November’s low could trigger panic. In the coming days, a local recovery toward the red channel’s median is possible, especially after signs of oversold conditions.

Overall, the long-term ascending channel on the BTC/USD chart is losing relevance, while the descending trend is becoming increasingly dominant.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1920; (P) 1.1958; (R1) 1.2010; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.2081. But downside of retreat should be contained by 1.1835 support. Decisive break above 1.2 will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 38.2% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1917 from 1.1576 at 1.3434. However, break of 1.1835 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1443) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.69; (P) 153.12; (R1) 153.54; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. As noted before, fall from 159.44 is seen as correcting the rise from 139.87. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside above 154.86 minor resistance will turn intraday bias to the upside for recovery. However, decisive break of 151.96 will argue that it is reversing whole rise from 139.87. Deeper decline would then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 147.34.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.35) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3753; (P) 1.3801; (R1) 1.3858; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue below 1.3867 temporary top. Downside should be contained by 1.3641 to bring another rally. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.3008 to 1.3567 from 1.3342 at 1.3901 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.4246, which is close to 1.4248 key structural resistance. However, break of 1.3641 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is resuming by breaking through 1.3787 high. Further rally should be seen to 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3008 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7620; (P) 0.7663; (R1) 0.7686; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidations above 0.7603 temporary low. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7792 resistance holds Break of 0.7603 will resume the larger down trend to 0.7382 projection level next. However, firm break of 0.7792 will turn bias back to the upside, for stronger rebound to 0.7860 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and resuming. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8184) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3457; (P) 1.3519; (R1) 1.3553; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the downside at this point. Firm break of 1.3538 low will resume whole fall from 1.4971. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. On the upside, above 1.3607 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, and break of 1.3538 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6981; (P) 0.7038; (R1) 0.7106; More...

A temporary top is firmed at 0.7093 in AUD/USD with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen but risk will stay on the upside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6905) holds. Above 0.7093 will extend larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213 next. Nevertheless, break of 55 4H EMA will confirm short term topping, and bring lengthier consolidations before rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.