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Markets

The French/Macron-driven risk-off continued to rage across European markets last Friday. European risk premia again leaped aggressively higher. After a protracted period of underperformance against swap, German Bunds fully picked-up their traditional safe haven role. German yields declined between 10.7 bps (5-y) and 14.1 bps (30-y), a move that is difficult to link to ECB interest rate expectations. Intra-EMU spreads widened sharply not only for France (+7 bps against Bunds) but also with substantial collateral damage for the likes of Italy (+10 bps), Greece (+11 bps), Spain (+7 bps) or Portugal (8 bps). Even core and semi-core countries didn’t escape the repricing. European equities remained in free-fall (EuroStoxx 50 -1.95%, CAC 40 -2.66%). The euro didn’t escape the forces of gravity. EUR/USD intraday dropped below the 1.07 level, but managed to end the week near the big figure. The fall-out on US markets evidently was modest. US equities closed the session little changed, holding near (S&P 500) or even closing at record levels (Nasdaq). US yields moved between +0.8 bps (2-y) and -4.9 bps (30-y), testing (2-y, 4.70%) or tentatively breaking key downside resistance (10-y 4.25-30% area). Consumer confidence of the U. of Michigan also didn’t provide much comfort with sentiment sharply deteriorating (62.5 from 69.1 vs 72.0 expected) but inflation expectations at the same time holding stubbornly high (1-y 3.3%). Still the impact on markets was limited. Fed Kashkari and Fed Mester kept a balanced wait-and-see approach on Fed policy going forward even as price data last week mostly surprised to the downside (CPI, PPI but also may import prices published on Friday).

Asian markets continue to trade in risk-off modus this morning (Nikkei -1.90%). infra). US yields tentatively gain 2-3 bps. The dollar maintains last week’s gains (DXY 105.53, USD/JPY 157.50, EUR/USD 1.07). Today’s eco calendar is thin. Later this week, US retail sales (Tuesday) and the PMI’s (Friday) are interesting, but will be overshadowed by the developments in France and the broader risk context. Several central banks (National Bank of Hungary and RBA tomorrow, Swiss national Bank, Norges Bank and Bank of England on Thursday) decide on policy. Yields both in the US and Europe almost fully discount two rate cuts this year. In normal times this should help to build some bottoming, but especially in Europe, the risk-off might persist as first opinion polls on the French elections are filtering through. For EUR/USD, a further decline to the 1.06 support remains the path of least resistance.

News & Views

Rating agency Fitch affirmed Hungary’s BBB rating with a negative outlook. Strengths underpinning the rating are strong structural indicators relative to BBB peers, investment-fueled growth and solid net FDI inflows. Fitch balances these against high public debt compared, unorthodox policy moves and a worsening of governance indicators in recent years. The negative outlook reflects risks around the policy environment and the performance of public finances. It expects the budget deficit to narrow to 4.9%, above the 4.5% government target. The debt ratio could rise to 74.1% in 2024, before falling to 73.3% end-2025. GDP growth is expected to pick up to 2.3% this year on a recovery of private consumption and improving sentiment. Exports should boost growth to 3.8% next year and helps widening the current account surplus to 2% that year. Average annual inflation is seen at 4.4% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025.

China’s monthly batch of economic data offered mixed signals. Industrial production rose 5.6% y/y in May, both easing from 6.7% the month before and missing estimates for a 6.2%. Retail sales surprised to the upside, coming in at 3.7% vs 3% expected and 2.3% in April. The jury is still out whether it’s the start of a bottoming out process after a drawn out period of consumer weakness. China’s National Bureau of Statistics also warned that domestic demand remains insufficient, adding that the external environment is complex and grim. The property markets shows little improvement, despite the government’s efforts. Property investments slumped 10.1% in the first five months YTD from a year earlier, deepening from -9.8% in January to April. Residential property sales tanked 30.5% YtD y/y. New home (-0.71%) and used home (-1%) prices declined further The yuan stabilizes near 8-month lows (USD/CNY 7.255).

Graphs

GE 10y yield

The ECB cut its key policy rates by 25 bps at the June policy meeting. A more bumpy inflation path in H2 2024, the EMU economy gradually regaining traction and the Fed’s higher for longer US strategy make follow-up moves difficult. Markets are coming to terms with that. For the time being, though, the political narrative dominates. After hitting a new YtD top at 2.7%, the German 10-yr yield corrected lower on safe haven bids.

US 10y yield

The Fed is seeking more evidence than just one slower-than-expected (May) CPI is providing. Upgraded inflation forecasts and a higher neutral rate complicate the exact timing of a first cut further. June dots suggest one move in 2024 followed by four more next year. Markets are positioned more aggressively, turning the recent low in yields into a technical support zone. The US 10-y yield is testing the downside of the 4.3/4.7% trading range.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trapped in the 1.06-1.09 range. The desynchronized rate cut cycle with the ECB exceptionally taking the lead, strong US May payrolls and a swing to the right in European elections pulled the pair away from 1.09 resistance. The Fed meeting balanced the weaker than expected US CPI outcome. Euro fragility makes a return to the 1.06 downside more likely than not.

EUR/GBP

Debate at the Bank of England is focused at the timing of rate cuts. Slower than expected April disinflation and a surprise general election on July 4 suggest that a June cut in line with the ECB looks improbable. Sterling gained momentum with money markets now discounting a Fed-like scenario. EUR/GBP tested the 2023 & 2024 lows near 0.85. Euro weakness eventually pulled the trick after French president Macron called snap elections following a weak showing in EU elections.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0666; (P) 1.0705; (R1) 1.0743; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on downside at this point. Fall from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0601 low first. Firm break there will target channel support at 1.0510 next. On the upside, above 1.0744 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern that's still in progress. Break of 1.0601 will target 1.0447 support and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.1274 to 1.0447 from 1.1138 at 1.0311. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.0915 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2640; (P) 1.2702; (R1) 1.2748; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the downside. Fall from 1.2859 short term top would target 1.2633 resistance turned support first. Firm break there will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target 1.2445 and below. For now, risk will be on the downside as long as 1.2859 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.2892 is seen as the third leg which might have completed already. Break of 1.2892 resistance will argue that larger up trend from 1.0351(2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.3141. Meanwhile, break of 1.2445 support will extend the corrective pattern with another decline instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8876; (P) 0.8921; (R1) 0.8946; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8883 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications and bring deeper decline. On the upside, firm break of 0.8987 support turned resistance will argue that correction from 0.9223 has completed, after drawing support from 0.8883 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 0.9157/9223 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.73; (P) 157.50; (R1) 158.23; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rally would remain in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 160.20 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 150.25 only. Another rally is still expected at a later stage through 160.02 to resume the larger up trend. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6590; (P) 0.6617; (R1) 0.6643; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3713; (P) 1.3747; (R1) 1.3766; More...

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias stays neutral. Corrective fall from 1.3845 should have completed already. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3662 support holds. Break of 1.3790 will target a retest on 1.3845 first. Nevertheless, break of 1.3662 will turn bias to the downside to extend the corrective pattern from 1.3845 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9482; (P) 0.9555; (R1) 0.9599; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9510 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption, and target 0.9252 low next. On the upside, above 0.9604 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.9563 support, as well as 55 W EMA (now at 0.9672) argues that rebound from 0.9252 has completed at 0.9928. Medium term bearish is maintained with both 1.0095 resistance intact. Firm break of 0.9252 will resume the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.42; (P) 168.61; (R1) 169.69; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 167.43) will extend the fall from 170.87, as the third leg of the pattern from 151.58, to 164.01 support next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 170.12 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 159.51) holds, price actions from 171.58 medium term top are seen as as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. That is, larger up trend remains in favor to continue as a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.57; (P) 200.09; (R1) 201.27; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment, and some consolidations could be seen below 201.59. Further rally is expected as long as 197.18 support holds. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 197.18 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 191.34 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 188.63 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 211.62.