Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.55; (P) 184.05; (R1) 184.57; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation continues below 186.75. ON the upside, above 186.04 will argue that larger up trend is ready to resume through 186.75. On the downside, however, break of 183.51 will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 181.87).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 176.29 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.11; (P) 157.54; (R1) 158.02; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more sideway trading could be seen inside range of 156.85/159.75 first. On the downside, break of 156.85 will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 156.29) and possibly below. On the upside, break of 159.75 will resume larger up trend instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 139.05 at 163.06. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest long term resistance at 169.96. This will remain the favored case as long as 151.39 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8549; (P) 0.8561; (R1) 0.8574; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 0.8491 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.8609 minor resistance will bring another rebound. But in any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8667 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Further decline is in favor as long as 0.8667 resistance holds. Break of 0.8491 will resume the fall towards 0.8201 (2022 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6653; (P) 1.6730; (R1) 1.6782; More...

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.7062 is in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 1.6621). Strong support could be seen from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.6887 resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed and bring retest of 1.7062 high.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9530; (P) 0.9556; (R1) 0.9571; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral at this point. With 0.9501 resistance intact, larger down trend is still in favor to continue. On the downside, break of 0.9513 support will confirm this bearish case and target 0.9407 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.9601 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 0.9646 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9839). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Sustained break of 0.9407 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9670 support turned resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

EURUSD edged higher in early Monday, driven by fresh risk appetite, after Friday’s US labor data signaled that the Fed might be done with hiking interest rates.

Fresh gains emerge after a multiple failure to register clear break through Fibo support at 1.0786 (76.4% of 1.0635/1.1275) and facing a minimum requirement in clearing 200DMA (1.0817) to ease existing downside risk and to allow for stronger recovery.

Near-term action remains within the range, limited at the upside by 100DMA (bull-trap) and weighed by thick daily cloud, base of which lays just above the range tops, while Fibo support keeps so far the downside protected.

Technical signals are mixed, as daily studies remain in bearish setup and keep in play risk of bearish continuation through 1.0786 pivot towards targets at 1.0700 (psychological) and 1.0635 (May 31 low).

On the other hand, initial bullish signal is developing on weekly chart (last week’s inverted hammer candle, 14-w momentum broke into positive territory and stochastic is oversold) which keeps alive expectations for stronger advance.

Break of 200DMA to expose 1.0875/86 (20DMA /Fibo 23.6% of 1.1275/1.0766 bear-leg), with extension above 1.0945/60 (Aug 30 recovery top / Fibo 38.2%) needed to signal reversal.

Otherwise, limited recovery (extended upticks to be capped under falling 20DMA) would offer better levels to re-enter larger downtrend.

Res: 1.0817; 1.0834; 1.0875; 1.0945.
Sup: 1.0766; 1.0700; 1.0667; 1.0635.

Investor confidence in Eurozone continues to wane, as evidenced by the latest Sentix Investor Confidence Index, which fell from -18.9 in August to -21.5 in September. This drop was steeper than the anticipated decline to -19.6. Further analysis shows that the Current Situation Index dropped to -22.0, marking its lowest point since November 2022 and solidifying the view that Eurozone economy remains in a state of recession. Expectations Index also retreated, moving from -17.3 to -21.0.

The downturn was even more pronounced in Germany, Eurozone's largest economy. The country's Overall Investor Confidence Index fell for the fifth consecutive month, hitting -33.1, its lowest point since October 2022. This decline was accompanied by a drop in Current Situation Index to -38.3, the lowest reading since July 2020. Expectations Index in Germany also slipped from -26.0 to -27.8.

Sentix pointed out that Germany is the "center of gravity of the problems," presenting a significant challenge for ECB. According to Sentix, Germany's ongoing economic slump is burdening the entire Eurozone with a deep recession.

"This poses a double problem for the ECB. The dynamics of the economy would actually justify a looser monetary policy, but in Germany, of all places, inflation is proving to be particularly stubborn," Sentix added.

Full Eurozone Sentix release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0737; (P) 1.0810; (R1) 1.0847; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. Firm break of 1.0764 support will resume whole decline from 1.1274 to 1.0609/34 cluster support next. Meanwhile, further decline will be in favor as long as 1.0944 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2540; (P) 1.2626; (R1) 1.2676; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral neutral and more consolidations could be seen. On the downside, break of 1.2546 will resume whole fall from 1.3141 to 61.8% projection of 1.3141 to 1.2618 from 1.2799 at 1.2476. However, on the upside, firm break of 1.2799 will indicate that the correction from 1.3141 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.3141.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3141 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075. Strong support would be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3141 resistance holds, and consolidation from there is set to extend, until further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8814; (P) 0.8839; (R1) 0.8882; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.8874. On the upside, firm break of 0.8874 will resume the rise from 0.8551. Next target is 0.9146 cluster resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.8743 minor support will argue that rebound from 0.8551 has completed, and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.8551 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the downtrend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rally would be seen to 0.9146 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 at 0.9160). Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, at least on first attempt.