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EURJPY has been in a prolonged uptrend since the beginning of the year, posting consecutive multi-year highs. However, in the last week, the pair has been flat near 15-year peaks, with buyers struggling to push the price higher on fears of an impending intervention by Japanese authorities.

The momentum indicators currently suggest that bullish forces are reigning supreme. Specifically, the MACD is strengthening above zero and its red signal line, while the RSI is ticking up deep within its positive territory.

Should the recent range break to the upside, the price could advance towards fresh multi-year highs, where the February 2008 peak of 161.38 could act as immediate resistance. Piercing through that zone, the price may challenge the April 2008 high of 164.97. A violation of that region could open the door for the October 2007 resistance of 167.72.

On the flipside, bearish actions could send the price to test the recent support of 157.64. If that floor collapses, the spotlight could turn to 153.31 ahead of the July low of 151.39.  Failing to halt there, the price may decline towards the June bottom of 148.58.

In brief, EURJPY has been rangebound for the past few days, but the broader technical picture remains bullish. Nevertheless, traders should be cautious as a decisive spike above the latest range could trigger an intervention by Japanese authorities.

GBPUSD has been gradually rising since posting a double bounce near the 1.2615 area, exiting the one-month-old bearish channel recently.

The pair opened above the constraining 20-day simple moving average (SMA) on Tuesday and is currently trying to extend its upleg above the 50-day SMA at 1.2790. This area provided strong resistance earlier this month, while the broken support trendline from October 2022 could add another potential threat within a short distance. Note that the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1800-1.3141 upleg is positioned in the same location at 1.2823. Strikingly, the 50-period SMA in the weekly chart is capping bullish actions for the third consecutive week in the same neighborhood.

Technically, the bulls seem to have more bullish fuel in the tank as the RSI is crossing back above its 50 neutral mark and the MACD is deviating above its red signal line. Yet only a clear close above 1.2823 could motivate a quick rally towards the 1.2940-1.3000 constraining zone. Should buying interest persist, the focus will immediately turn to the 15-month high of 1.3141.

If the pair gets a rejection near 1.2790, pulling back below its 20-day SMA at 1.2750, support could initially develop within the 1.2615-1.2665 territory. Failure to pivot there could generate an aggressive decline towards the 1.2500 round level and the 50% Fibonacci mark of 1.2470. A continuation lower would bring the 200-day SMA at 1.2385 and the lower band of the broken bearish channel on the radar.

Summing up, GBPUSD is showing a bullish attitude in the very short-term picture. Buying confidence could further improve above 1.2823.

The US 30 cash index has been under bearish pressure after registering a new 2023 high and its highest print since April 2022. It is trading sideways today, testing the support set by the October 13, 2022 upward sloping trendline. The previous three times this trendline was tested, the bears failed to record a decisive sell-off, geometrically increasing its importance.

The momentum indicators remain mostly supportive of the current downleg. More specifically, the RSI has reached its lowest point since the March 2023 correction. Similarly, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is edging higher and thus signals the presence of a bearish trend in the market. Interestingly, the stochastic oscillator remains in its oversold territory (OS) and still holds a good gap from its moving average. It can hover in its OS for a considerable amount of time before signaling a reversal.

The bears’ determination will probably be put to the real test by the October 13, 2022 trendline. If successfully broken, the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 34,097 is unlikely to trouble the bears much. However, the same cannot be said for the next support area at the 33,518-33,754 range that is populated by the 200-day SMA, the October 1, 2021 low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January 5, 2022 – October 3, 2022 downtrend respectively.

On the flip side, the bulls’ first target would probably be to defend the October 13, 2022 trendline. They could then have a go at the busier 34,656-34,930 range, which is defined by the December 13, 2022 high and the 50-day SMA. Even higher, the 35,091-35,496 area would then stand in bulls’ way.

To sum up, the fate of the current pullback depends on the US 30 index bears clearing the support set by the October 13, 2022 trendline.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6394; (P) 0.6408; (R1) 0.6429; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as consolidation from 0.6363 is going to extend further. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3504; (P) 1.3538; (R1) 1.3581; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again as consolidation from 1.3574 is going to extend for a while. But downside of retreat should be contained by 0.3371 to bring another rally. Break of 1.3574 will target 1.3653 resistance first. Decisive break there will confirm that correction from 1.3976 has completed, a target a test on this high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective fall only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0873; (P) 1.0893; (R1) 1.0917; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0832 support will resume the fall from 1.1274 and target 1.0609/34 cluster support next. On the upside, above 1.0951 minor resistance will turn intraday bias to the upside for stronger recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 1.1274, after failing to break through 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 decisively, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as a correction to the uptrend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to set the range for consolidation. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2723; (P) 1.2745; (R1) 1.2779; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point and range trading continues. On the downside, firm break of 1.2615, and sustained trading below 1.2678 resistance turned support will argue that it's already in a larger correction. Deeper decline would then be seen to 1.2306 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.2817 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back from 1.3141 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 1.3141 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.2723) should confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075, as a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). For now, rise will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.3141 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8767; (P) 0.8797; (R1) 0.8815; More....

USD/CHF failed to sustain above 0.8818 support turned resistance again and retreated. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8818 will carry larger bullish implication, and target 0.9146 cluster resistance next. However, break of 0.8688 support will indicate rejection by 0.8818, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8551 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.8551 already, on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading above 0.8818 support turned resistance will bring further rise to 0.9146 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 at 0.9160), even as a correction. Nevertheless, break of 0.8851 will resume the down trend from 1.0146 instead.

In a meeting today, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida discussed a range of financial topics. However, in a post-meeting address to the media, Ueda clarified that the recent volatility of exchange rates was not a focal point of their conversation. He stated, "There wasn't anything in particular discussed today," in response to inquiries regarding the topic.

The backdrop to this meeting was Dollar's significant surge over 145 Yen mark. To provide some historical context, when the currency reached this level in September 2022, it prompted Japan's inaugural Yen-buying intervention operation in nearly a quarter of a century, since 1998.

During their dialogue, Ueda shed light on BoJ's recent decision to ease its hold on long-term interest rates, lifting the cap on 10-year JGB yield from 0.50% to 1.00%. Prime Minister Kishida expressed understanding and agreement with the central bank's decision, Ueda remarked.

Highlighting the periodic nature of such high-level meetings, Ueda noted that the recent gathering was in line with the tradition maintained by his predecessor, Haruhiko Kuroda. Such consultations, held once every few months, aim to facilitate discussions on prevailing economic and financial landscapes.

New York traded Natural gas is up 3% on Monday, having managed to break away from support again. Gas has formed an uptrend from the April lows but has not yet switched to an acceleration phase.

Gas prices formed a low in April just above $2 before starting an uptrend, and prices are now 34% above those lows at $2.75. This is a smooth rise, given that US gas prices peaked at almost $10 a year ago, nearly four times higher.

This price action looks like a textbook accumulation phase after a capitulation. However, optimists should be aware that such inattention to the rise in gas prices can last long.

The uptrend channel originated from the April lows and, since July, has repeatedly acted as a support from which gas buying has intensified. There were attempts to break this trend on Friday and earlier in August, but gas confidently returned to the corridor.

This lower boundary of the channel almost coincided with the 50-day moving average, which has also repeatedly tested its strength since June. It has been pointing up since the beginning of the summer, giving the bulls an additional argument.

Having managed to hold the channel’s lower boundary, Natural Gas appears to be heading for its upper boundary, above $3.16. The 200-day moving average is slightly higher at $3.23.

The ability of gas to consolidate above its 200-day moving average will attract our attention, as it could herald a more active bullish phase in the market, potentially opening a quick path to $4.0 or even $5.5.

Locally, a “strategy” works against this scenario on the higher – weekly – timeframes where the 50-week moving average has dropped below the 200-week moving average. This formation is called a “death cross” and gives clear signals in the commodity markets at the current timeframes. However, we believe that the gas capitulation has already occurred between November last year and February this year.