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The GBP/JPY chart shows that this currency pair is in an uptrend (nearly +17% YTD) which can be explained by differences in economies. While the UK is fighting a rate hike against inflation (which has shown double digits), Japan continues to pursue an ultra-soft monetary policy.

Technically, the bulls still have a chance to reach the upper boundary of the channel (shown in blue), where the psychological resistance level of 190 yen per pound passes, but the situation may change:

→ First, the Japanese authorities are concerned. “We closely monitor the movement of the currency. We will respond appropriately if it becomes excessive,” Vice Finance Minister and Chief Currency Strategist Masato Kanda said today. Recall that the Bank of Japan has already taken interventions in the foreign exchange market to support the yen in September and October last year — and this has yielded results.

→ Secondly, the bullish momentum for the pound may weaken. Bank of America analysts' forecast for the pound is one of the most pessimistic among the G10. In their opinion, the fight against inflation in the UK will be the strongest, and the risk of a hard landing has increased.

(!) Please note that today at 16:30 GMT+3 speeches of the heads of central banks, including those of Japan and Great Britain, are scheduled. Get ready for a surge in volatility.

Gold remains under pressure and probes through key Fibo support at $1909 (61.8% of $1804/$2080 rally) where the action was repeatedly rejected on Tuesday and Friday and hit the lowest in 3 ½ months.

Bullion is weighed by renewed hawkishness in rate outlook, on signals from Fed that borrowing cost may stay high longer than expected, while solid economic data suggest that the US may avoid recession.

High interest rates are expected to continue denting metal’s safe-haven appeal and keep the price under pressure, with firm break of pivotal supports at $1909/00 (Fibo / psychological) to bring in focus targets at $1869/55 (Fibo 76.4% / 200DMA) and unmask key supports at $1809/04 (2023 lows / Feb/Mar higher base) and psychological $1800 level.

Bearish daily technical studies contribute to negative outlook, with upticks on anticipated headwinds at $1809/00 zone to be ideally capped by falling 10DMA ($1931).

Markets turn focus to the speech of Fed Chair Powell, due later today, to get more clues about the central bank’s near-future steps.

Res: 1916; 1931; 1943; 1955.
Sup: 1900; 1885; 1869; 1855.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.69; (P) 183.23; (R1) 184.21; More...

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook. Further rise is expected despite loss of upside momentum. Current up trend should target 138.2% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 187.36 next. On the downside, however, break of 179.90 support will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is extending. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.90; (P) 157.42; (R1) 158.44; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 139.05 to 151.60 from 146.12 at 158.67. Firm break there will target 138.2% projection at 163.46 next. On the downside, break of 155.74 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8573; (P) 0.8593; (R1) 0.8618; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP as consolidation from 0.8517 continues. On the downside, break of 0.8517 will resume the fall from 0.8977 to 161.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8717 from 0.8874 at 0.8453. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.8635 will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8658) and above.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. It's seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Deeper fall would be seen towards 0.8201 (2022 low). But strong support should be seen from there to bring reversal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8717 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6295; (P) 1.6355; (R1) 1.6451; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside as rally from 1.5846 extends. Decisive break of 1.6513 resistance will confirm that whole correction from 1.6785 has completed at 1.5846. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.6785 high next. On the downside, break of 1.6255 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rally resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9761; (P) 0.9791; (R1) 0.9827; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall cannot be ruled out, to retest 0.9670 low. Sustained break there will resume the whole fall from 1.0095. Nevertheless, break of 0.9840 will resume the rebound from 0.9670 to 0.9878 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9918). Down trend form 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to extend through 0.9407 at a later stage. Nevertheless, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal.

NZDUSD had been steadily regaining ground after finding its feet at the 2023 low of 0.5984 in early June. However, the latest rebound faltered after challenging the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, with the price reversing lower and dropping below both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs)

The momentum indicators currently suggest that the bearish forces are intensifying. Specifically, the RSI is retreating further below its 50-neutral mark, while the stochastic oscillator is sloping downwards near its 20-oversold zone.

If the selling interest intensifies, the pair could descend towards the March bottom of 0.6083. A drop beneath that region could pave the way for the 2023 low of 0.5984. Even lower, the 0.5815 hurdle could provide downside protection.

On the flipside, should the correction cease and the price edge back higher, immediate resistance could be met at the recent rejection region of 0.6246. Conquering this barricade, the bulls might aim for 0.6304 ahead of the four-month peak of 0.6383. Further advances could then cease at the 2023 high of 0.6536.

Overall, NZDUSD has been experiencing a significant pullback in the short term, while its retreat below both the 50- and 200-day SMAs is further darkening the technical outlook. Nevertheless, the decline could accelerate and the pair could revisit its 2023 lows in the case that it crosses below its March bottom.

USDJPY continues to build its uptrend comfortably above its exponential moving averages (EMAs), closing on Tuesday near a fresh seven-month high of 144.16.

The next obstacle could be the 145.00-145.40 area, with the RSI and the stochastic oscillator suggesting that some congestion could emerge in this neighborhood as the price seems to be trading within overbought waters. Interestingly, the extension of the March resistance line is positioned in the same territory. Therefore, a decisive step higher is expected to boost buying confidence, likely lifting the price up to the 148.80 barrier, unless the 146.60 barricade blocks the way higher beforehand.

Alternatively, a downside reversal could initially retest the nearby support of 143.30 ahead of the 142.00 constraining zone, where the 20-day EMA is heading. Falling lower, the pair could stall around the previous high of 140.90, a break of which could cause an aggressive decline towards the 139.00-138.11 territory. The 50-day EMA and a couple of key trendlines, including the ascending trendline from March lows, are making this region important to watch.

In brief, USDJPY is strengthening its bullish structure, with the bulls expected to slow the pace in the short-term as the price is approaching a caution zone.

WTI oil edged higher in early Wednesday, following 2.2% drop on Tuesday, positively impacted by stronger than expected draw in US crude inventories (API report) but keeps bearish bias.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday on fresh hawkish signals from central banks, warning that policy tightening cycle is still far from the end.

The WTI contract is holding below $70 level for the fifth consecutive, which weighs on near-term action and adds to negative outlook.

Bears pressure last Friday’s spike low ($67.33) ahead of more significant base at $67.00/$66.80 zone, violation of which would open way for retest of 2023 low at $63.63 (May 4).

Daily chart signals further losses as 14-d momentum is holding in negative territory and moving averages are in full bearish configuration, however stochastic is about to enter oversold territory.

This could increase headwinds the price is facing at $67.96 Fibo support (61.8% of $63.63/$74.70) where attacks repeatedly failed on Fri/Tue).

Consolidation should be narrow and capped under broken Fibo level at $69.17 (50% of $63.63/$74.70) to keep bears in play and guard upper pivot at $70 (psychological / daily Tenkan-sen).

Res: 68.68; 69.17; 70.00; 70.75.
Sup: 67.33; 67.02; 66.80; 66.24.