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EURGBP posted limited gains following the pivot from a six-month low of 0.8566 as the 0.8615 territory proved a tough obstacle this week.

Previously, the pair stopped near the lower boundary of the channel containing the price action since the beginning of the year, hinting at a possible bullish reversal. The momentum indicators are higher than their recent lows, sustaining some hopes for a short-term recovery. However, the negative slope of the SMAs and the "death cross" between the 50- and 200-day SMAs suggest the 2023 downtrend will remain intact.

A clear close above the 0.8615 bar could initially face the constraining 20-day SMA, currently at 0.8653. If the bulls breach that line, the door will open for the 0.8700-0.8725 resistance region, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8200-0.9249 uptrend is placed. Nevertheless, traders might wait for a decisive extension above the downward-sloping channel and the 200-day SMA at 0.8750 in order to raise buying orders up to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 0.8850.

Alternatively, a break below 0.8585 could cause the price to fall towards the channel’s lower boundary and the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.8535. Another failure here could add more fuel to the sell-off, bringing the 0.8485 zone under examination ahead of the 78.6% Fibonacci mark of 0.8425.

In summary, EURGBP could remain supported in the short term, though a broad bullish trend reversal seems unlikely at the moment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3320; (P) 1.3373; (R1) 1.3425; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside, with focus on 1.3299 support. Strong support could still be seen there to rebound. Break of 1.3460 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3653 resistance, to extend the triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3976. However, sustained break of 1.3299 will indicate that larger corrective fall is underway, and target 100% projection of 1.3860 to 1.3299 from 1.3653 at 1.3092.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is expected to resume through 1.3976 after consolidation from there completes. On decisive break of 1.3976, next target will be 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 holds. However, sustained break of 1.3233 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6624; (P) 0.6671; (R1) 0.6699; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, break of 0.6716 will resume the rebound from 0.6457 to 0.6817 key structural resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.6578 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6457 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6811) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Current development suggests that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Retest of 0.6169 (2022 low) should be seen next. Firm break there will confirm down trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0665; (P) 1.0703; (R1) 1.0736; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.0634 will resume the corrective decline from 1.1094. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, however, above 1.0778 will resume the rebound from 1.0634 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813).

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2389; (P) 1.2444; (R1) 1.2494; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook as range trading continues and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.2306 will resume the correction from 1.2678. Deeper decline would then be seen to 1.1801 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2678 at 1.1789). On the upside, above 1.2543 will resume the rebound from 1.2306 to retest 1.2678 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1801 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759 will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.1801 will indicate rejection by 1.2759, and bring deeper decline, even as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9062; (P) 0.9084; (R1) 0.9125; More...

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidation from 0.9146 could extend further. But with 0.9013 minor support intact, further rally is expected. Rise from 0.8818 short term bottom is seen as correcting whole down trend from 1.0146. Above 0.9146 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8818 at 0.9325. On the downside, however, break of 0.9013 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8818 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high), which might have completed at 0.8818 already, just ahead of 0.8756 long term support. Sustained trading above 0.9058 support turned resistance should confirm medium term bottoming. Further break of 0.9439 resistance will confirm bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.39; (P) 139.82; (R1) 140.61; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 138.22 minor support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.62).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9707; (P) 0.9723; (R1) 0.9756; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, firm break of 0.9760 resistance should confirm short term bottoming after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 0.9878 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.9670 will extend the whole decline from 1.0095 towards 0.9407 low instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. The pair is also capped below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9938). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8586; (P) 0.8600; (R1) 0.8615; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 0.8566 is in progress. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.8660 support turned resistance and bring another fall. Break of 0.8566 will resume the fall from 0.8977, and target 161.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8717 from 0.8874 at 0.8453. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8660 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. This is part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Deeper fall would be seen through 0.8545 support. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8717 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6009; (P) 1.6053; (R1) 1.6127; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations could be seen first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6513 resistance holds. Below 1.5976 will resume the fall from 1.6785 to 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top is possibly in place at 1.6785 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.6513 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828. Strong support could be seen there to complete the first leg of the corrective pattern.