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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3311; (P) 1.3336; (R1) 1.3357; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral first and further rally is expected with 1.3178 support intact. As noted before, fall from 1.3787 should have completed as a three-wave correction to 1.3008. On the upside, above 1.3384 will target 1.3470 resistance. Decisive break there will bring retest of 1.3787 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8014; (P) 0.8034; (R1) 0.8067; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Overall outlook is unchanged that price actions from 0.7828 are developing into a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 0.8052 will bring stronger rise to 0.8101, and then 0.8123 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.7990 will extend the fall from 0.8101 towards 0.7877 support instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3770; (P) 1.3866; (R1) 1.3914; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as fall from 1.4139 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.3538 to 1.4139 at 1.3768. Firm break there will argue that whole decline form 1.4791 might be ready to resume through 1.3538 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3936 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Gold price rallied above $4,250 before correcting lower. Crude oil price is recovering and it could climb further higher toward $62.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price gained pace for a move above $4,250 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $4,195 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
•  Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $59.00 resistance zone.
•  There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $59.40 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above $4,120, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The price even surpassed $4,250 before the bears appeared.

The price traded close to $4,260 before there was a downside correction. There was a move below $4,240 and $4,220. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $4,175 swing low to the $4,260 high.

However, the bulls are active above $4,200. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $4,195 and the 76.4% Fib retracement.

Immediate resistance on the upside is $4,240. The next major resistance is $4,260. An upside break above $4,260 could send Gold price toward $4,275. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $4,290.

If there is no fresh increase, the price could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near $4,195 and the trend line. The first key breakdown zone could be $4,175. If there is a downside break below $4,175, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop to $4,120.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it settled above $58.20.

The bulls pushed the price above the 50-hour simple moving average, and the RSI climbed toward 70. The price tested the $60.20 zone and is currently consolidating gains. There was a minor pullback below $60.00, and the price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $58.20 swing low to the $60.20 low.

Immediate resistance is near $60.20. If the price climbs further higher, it could face bears near $60.50. The next key area of interest might be $61.20. Any more gains might send the price toward $62.00.

Conversely, the price might correct gains and test $59.40. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $59.40 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The main bid area on the WTI crude oil chart could be $59.00 and the 61.8% Fib retracement. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $58.20. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move to $57.20.

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Last week was full of uncertainties and mixed signals, but US indices ultimately ended in the green after the PCE report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — confirmed that inflation remains elevated, near 3%, well above the 2% target, but broadly stable. Core PCE even eased slightly to 2.8% from 2.9%. More importantly for sentiment, both the 1-year and 5-year Michigan inflation expectations fell. December’s survey showed a modest improvement in consumer sentiment — likely helped by the holiday season — but current conditions deteriorated. The softening in recent economic data explains why inflation expectations are easing: the weaker the labour market, the more cautious households become, and the slower price pressures build. That’s not good news for Main Street — but it is good news for Wall Street, where investors are eager for rate cuts as long as corporate earnings hold up.

The good news for them is that a 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday is essentially locked in. The recent weakness in employment data and a stable, up-to-date PCE print support that decision.

But what happens next is the part no one agrees on. The FOMC is divided. Some members worry that tariff-driven inflation could offset disinflationary forces and argue for caution — versus those pushing for quicker cuts, in line with political pressures and public preference. The base case is that politics will dominate and that rates will continue to move lower as the committee rotates toward members more aligned with the incoming administration’s views, starting with a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair.

But here is the risk: if the Fed delivers politically driven cuts without economic justification, markets could push back and long-term yields could rise.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are all expected to keep rates unchanged. In Japan, today’s weak GDP print raised some doubts among Bank of Japan (BoJ) hawks, but 10-year yield continues to climb — now around 1.96% — as wage growth accelerates and keeps inflation concerns alive. The BoJ still looks likely to hike next week.

Meanwhile, tensions between China and Japan are rising, boosting Japanese defence stocks, with Mitsubishi and Kawasaki Heavy Industries each up between 2-3% this morning. Chinese equities, by contrast, are gaining on strong trade data showing a robust jump in exports last month as firms rushed to move inventory ahead of the latest tariff truce with the US.

Oil is also firmer: WTI broke above its 50-day moving average last Friday and closed the week above it, suggesting that further upside is possible, supported by a softer US dollar — which, in theory, should help EM demand — and ongoing AI-related energy needs.

AI earnings: two major AI-linked names report earnings this week. Let’s start with the simpler one: Broadcom, reporting Thursday. Expectations are constructive. Broadcom continues to benefit from Google’s accelerating deployment of TPUs — for internal use and for Google Cloud customers. Broadcom is one of Google’s key partners in producing these chips, handling physical design and components for the latest TPU generations. Rising TPU demand therefore translates into meaningful revenue for Broadcom. The company also recently expanded its client base, including chip supply for Meta. Altogether, the stock remains — for now — relatively resilient to the broader AI-sector volatility.

Oracle, however, is more complicated. The company is now treated as a bellwether of AI-related balance-sheet RISK: it has taken on significant debt to fund its AI and cloud expansion, and carries a lower credit rating than its Big Tech peers. Its 5-year CDS widened sharply last week to a 16-month high.

Analysts expect Oracle to report roughly $16.2bn in revenue and $1.63 EPS. Those figures look solid at first glance but current estimates imply about 9–10% revenue growth and 11–12% EPS growth versus last year. That signals that Wall Street is no longer expecting blowout numbers, but rather a steadier, more incremental climb as Oracle converts its large AI-cloud backlog into realised revenue. Expectations are low — the good news. The bad news is that investors will scrutinise margins and capital efficiency.

Oracle’s massive cloud and AI build-out has required equally massive spending. Capex has surged as the company races to expand data-centre capacity, putting pressure on margins just as scrutiny intensifies. At the same time, Oracle’s elevated debt load remains one of the largest in Big Tech, and the recent CDS widening shows that credit markets are increasingly sensitive to how much leverage is being used to finance its AI push.

The concern is straightforward: if cloud-backlog conversion slows or margins disappoint, heavy spending combined with high debt could squeeze cash flow at the wrong time. The bull case requires very strong execution — because the balance sheet leaves relatively little room for error.

In focus today

In the euro area, focus turns to the Sentix investor confidence indicator for December and the German industrial production data for October. The Sentix indicator will give us the first signal of investor confidence in December while German industrial production is the first 'hard data' for Q4. The German PMIs suggest that industrial production in October was little changed compared to September.

Early tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA will hold its final monetary policy meeting of the year. We expect no policy changes, in line with consensus and market pricing. Recent solid economic data has driven a hawkish repricing of markets' policy rate expectations, with the next most likely policy change being a rate hike in H2 2026.

The big event this week is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, preceded by the much-delayed September JOLTS job openings data on Tuesday. Rate decisions from Canada (Wednesday) as well as Switzerland and Turkey (Thursday) will also draw attention. In Scandinavia, notable data releases include final Swedish CPI and growth figures, Norwegian CPI, and Norges Bank's regional network report.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In China, November trade data showed exports rising by 5.9% y/y (prior: -1.1%), exceeding expectations due to strong growth in shipments to non-US markets amid elevated US tariffs. Imports rose 1.9% y/y (prior: 1.0%), below forecasts and signalling subdued domestic demand. This marks the first time China's year-to-date trade surplus in goods exceeded USD 1tn. Read more in Research China - A two-speed economy, 8 December.

In Japan, total cash earnings were up 2.6% y/y in October compared to 2.1% in September. This leaves real earnings at -0.7% y/y as wages continue to struggle to compensate for particularly food price surges earlier this year. Q3 GDP growth was revised lower to -0.6% on lower investments and exports. This is considered a temporary setback following several strong quarters, though, and it is not enough to derail a December Bank of Japan-hike. Private spending edged 0.2% higher, reflecting continuous recovering consumer sentiment since the spring.

In Southeast Asia, Thailand launched air strikes on Cambodia, marking the collapse of the Trump-brokered peace deal. Cambodia accused Thailand of the attacks, while Malaysia called for restraint as tensions over historic border disputes escalate.
What happened over the weekend

In the euro area, wage growth in Q3 rose against expectations, with compensation per employee rising to 4.0% y/y from 3.8% y/y in Q2. Compared to the ECB staff projections from September, which estimated Q3 wage growth at 3.2% y/y, the high print is a hawkish surprise for the ECB. With headline inflation averaging 2.1%, consumers experienced significant real wage gains, which is supportive for consumption. While inflation is expected below 2% next year due to temporary factors like energy prices and a stronger euro, strong wage growth indicates persistent domestic price pressures.

GDP growth in Q3 was revised up to 0.3% q/q from 0.2% q/q, driven by rounding adjustments. Private consumption contributed positively but slowed to 0.2% q/q from 0.3% q/q in Q2, reflecting cautious consumer behaviour despite solid real income gains of nearly 2% y/y. Apart from consumption, investments and government consumption were the main growth drivers, while net exports weighed negatively. Read more in Euro Area Macro Monitor - Southern Europe outshines in growth and public finances, 8 December.

In the US, the delayed September PCE inflation landed close to expectations. Core services inflation momentum cooled slightly at 0.2% m/m SA (cons: 0.2%, prior: 0.1981). At the same time, December's flash consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan revealed a decline in consumers' inflation expectations, with 1-year expectations falling to 4.1% (prior: 4.5%) and 5-year expectations dropping to 3.2% (prior: 3.4%), likely reflecting lower gasoline prices. While no major surprises, this on the margin supports the Fed's rate cut anticipated this week.

Also in the US, President Trump unveiled his National Security Strategy, emphasising his 'America First' vision. Key priorities include reinforcing US dominance in the Western Hemisphere via the revived Monroe Doctrine, countering China's influence in Latin America, and deterring conflict in the Indo-Pacific through military strength. The strategy also questions Europe's reliability as an ally, calling on NATO members to assume greater defence responsibilities. Notably, the Kremlin welcomed the strategy, stating its adjustments align with Russia's own global perspective.

In the Russia-Ukraine war, US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg stated that efforts to reach a breakthrough are "really close", with key issues including the Donbas region and Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. However, the Kremlin has called for radical changes to US proposals, underscoring ongoing challenges in reaching a resolution. Today, Zelensky meets European leaders to discuss next steps, including securing meaningful guarantees.

In Japan-China relations, tensions escalated as Japanese aircraft were targeted by radar from Chinese fighter jets near Okinawa in two incidents Tokyo called "dangerous". PM Takaichi condemned the actions and lodged a protest with Beijing, while Japan vowed to respond calmly to maintain regional stability. The incidents highlight strained ties amid disputes over Taiwan and broader regional security challenges.

Equities: Equities slowed on Friday following strong gains earlier in the week. US and European indices were little changed on Friday but ended the week almost 1% higher. Nordic markets outperformed, with Stockholm and Helsinki locking in almost 2% for the week. The explanation is straightforward: Nordic equities lagged in the initial recovery. Asian markets are continuing higher this morning, while US and European futures are somewhat indecisive.

Although markets appeared calm on the surface on Friday, we note a clear risk-on rotation beneath it, with cyclical sectors rising roughly 1%, financed by declines in defensives. For the week as a whole, global cyclicals outperformed defensives by 2.5 p.p., the strongest relative performance since the earnings season.

FI and FX: Last week ended with slightly higher yields, both in Europe (2bp) and the US (4bp). We start the week at unchanged levels compared to Friday in US-treasuries. EURUSD is hovering around 1.165 and USDJPY at 155.2 as markets will increasingly focus on the widely expected Fed rate cut on Wednesday where markets price -23bp.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6614; (P) 0.6632; (R1) 0.6658; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains the upside for retesting 0.6706 high. As noted before, rise from 0.5913 might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 0.6706 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. On the downside, below 0.6604 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 08006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

Dollar weakened mildly in Asian trading as the new week began, but the move lacked conviction, with most major pairs still confined to familiar ranges. With a light data calendar on tap today and little in the way of market-moving headlines, early-session flows were cautious. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence is the only notable release in Europe, while the U.S. calendar is completely empty.

That calm will not last. Market activity is almost certain to pick up sharply as the week progresses, with four major central bank meetings on deck. The headline event is Wednesday’s FOMC decision, where markets are fully priced for another 25bps “risk-management” cut. But RBA, BoC and SNB decisions also carry potential for surprise—even if none are expected to move rates this week.

This cluster of central bank risk suggests the FX market could see unusually choppy conditions, especially as investors reposition around forward guidance rather than the policy moves themselves. With Fed communication still unclear regarding the 2026 path and RBA pricing now tilting toward the possibility of a hike next year, volatility clusters may emerge across USD-majors and AUD-crosses.

Away from central banks, traders will also keep a close eye on geopolitics—particularly the brewing tensions between the EU and China. French President Emmanuel Macron used his state visit to Beijing earlier this month to issue an unusually blunt warning: unless China takes steps to narrow its rapidly growing trade surplus with Europe, the EU may resort to U.S.-style tariffs.

Macron described the current trade imbalance as “unsustainable,” arguing that China is “killing its own customers” by dramatically reducing imports from Europe. He stressed that European industry is trapped between Trump's protectionism and China’s competitive pressure in industrial goods, calling it a “life or death” moment for the region’s manufacturing base.

In early Monday trading, Euro and Swiss Franc sit on the firmer side, followed by Yen, reflecting a mild preference for defensives. On the weaker side are Loonie and Dollar, followed by Sterling, while Aussie and Kiwi hold the middle ground. These early rankings are unlikely to hold for long, with the central bank bonanza almost certain to reorder the field.

In Asia, Nikkei rose 0.18%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.02%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.55%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.41%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.002 at 1.955.

Japan’s wage picture improves but real incomes growth stays negative at -0.7%

Japan’s economic data delivered a familiar combination of improving nominal pay but still-depressed real incomes. Real wages fell -0.7% yoy in October, the 10th consecutive decline, though the rate of contraction moderated for the second month. Officials highlighted that fewer part-time roles and a higher share of full-time employees—who earn more—helped support headline income levels. Yet inflation of 3.4% yoy, driven mainly by food prices, continued to outpace wage gains.

Nominal earnings were considerably stronger, rising 2.6% yoy and beating forecasts for 2.2%. That marks a three-month high and extends the run of increases to 46 straight months, giving policymakers some evidence that wage momentum is holding up. Regular pay also expanded a robust 2.6% yoy, while bonus-driven special payments surged 6.7% yoy, providing a further boost. strain, limiting the lift to consumption.

The bigger disappointment came from growth data. Japan’s Q3 GDP was revised down to -2.3% annualized, from the initial -1.8%, making it the weakest quarter since 2023.

China’s exports rebound sharply by 5.9% yoy, US shipments remain deep in double-digit decline

China’s November trade data delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound, with exports surging 5.9% yoy to USD 330.35B, sharply reversing October’s -1.1% decline. The improvement marks the strongest performance since early 2024.

However, the headline strength masks continued weakness in China–U.S. trade, where shipments plunged -28.6% yoy, extending a run of eight straight months of double-digit declines. Despite the one-year tariff truce, effective levies remain elevated—averaging 47.5% on Chinese goods entering the U.S. and around 32% on American goods entering China—keeping bilateral flows under heavy pressure.

A clear divergence across regions stood out. Exports to ASEAN partners climbed more than 8% yoy, while shipments to the EU jumped nearly 15% y/y, underlining a rotation in China’s export momentum toward other major markets.

Imports, however, rose a softer-than-expected 1.9% yoy, pointing to still-cautious domestic demand despite policy easing efforts. With exports outpacing imports, China’s trade surplus widened to USD 111.68B in November.

Fed cut locked in, but guidance uncertain; RBA, BoC and SNB to hold the line

The week ahead brings one of the heaviest central bank line-ups, with the Fed, RBA, BoC and SNB all on deck. Yet only one of them—the Federal Reserve—is expected to move. Markets are firmly positioned for a 25bps risk-management cut, taking Fed funds to 3.50–3.75%, while the other three major central banks are widely expected to hold steady. Even so, the messaging from all four will matter for shaping early-2026 expectations.

For the Fed, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is unquestionably the anchor event. The cut itself is not up for debate; market pricing still hovers near 90% change. What matters is what comes with it. One area to watch is the voting split, where attention will fall on whether ultra-dove Governor Stephen Miran again pushes for a 50bps move, and how many officials favor staying on hold. Any widening of dissent would reveal how fragmented the Committee has become.

The second focal point is the new economic projections. Back in September, the median dot implied only one more 25bps cut in 2026. With substantial macro uncertainty and incomplete data due to the government shutdown earlier this quarter, there may be caveats around precision. Still, the Fed’s broad views on growth, employment and inflation will deliver valuable clues on how policymakers interpret the recent slowing in activity.

Markets will also look to Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, though expectations are modest. Powell is unlikely to lift the fog surrounding 2026. Internally, there is neither clarity nor consensus on how far or how fast cuts might proceed next year, especially as political noise grows louder ahead of leadership transition. His message may therefore lean heavily on data dependence.

In Australia, the RBA is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% on Tuesday. But the tone will be anything but neutral. October CPI surprised sharply to the upside at 3.8%, while trimmed-mean inflation ticked up to 3.3%. Combined with still-firm labor-market conditions, the inflation-control narrative has reclaimed center stage. Rate-cut expectations have evaporated in just two weeks.

Australia’s Big Four banks all expect the RBA to stay on hold, with three of them declaring the cutting cycle over. Reuters’ latest poll shows fewer than one-third of economists still expect one more cut by mid-2026—down from above 60% in November. Meanwhile, futures markets now price over a 70% chance of a rate hike by end-2026, marking a dramatic shift in sentiment.

Markets therefore expect a more hawkish-tilted message at the RBA’s final meeting of the year. While the base case remains “steady through 2026,” the balance of risk has clearly pivoted toward the upside. Acknowledging stronger demand momentum and sticky inflation may be enough to reinforce the idea that the next move could be up, not down.

The BoC follows on Wednesday, also expected to stay put at 2.25%. After signaling in October that the easing cycle had effectively ended, recent data—especially a string of strong labor-market reports—has given policymakers no reason to reopen the door to cuts. A Reuters poll taken even before the latest jobs surge showed 18 of 29 economists expecting no rate changes until at least 2027. That conviction has only strengthened.

Rounding out the week, the SNB meets Thursday and is widely expected to hold at 0.00%. Chair Martin Schlegel has repeatedly stressed that the threshold for returning to negative rates is very high. While Switzerland’s November CPI dipped back to 0.0% yoy, concerns about deflation are partially offset by recent Swiss Franc weakness and the US–Swiss trade deal, which slashes tariffs on Swiss exports from 39% to 15%. SNB will almost certainly stick to its current stance: ready to act if needed, but seeing no justification to move now.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Japan labor cash earnings, current account, Q3 GDP final; China trade balance; Swiss SECO consumer climate; Eurozone Sentix investor confidence.
• Tuesday: Australia NAB business confidence, RBA rate decision; Germany trade balance.
• Wednesday: Japan PPI, China CPI, PPI; US employment cost index; BoC rate decision; FOMC rate decision.
• Thursday: New Zealand manufacturing sales; Japan BSI manufacturing;Australia employment; SNB rate decision; ; Canada trade balance; US trade balance, jobless claims.
• Friday: New Zealand BNZ manufacturing; UK GDP, trade balance.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6614; (P) 0.6632; (R1) 0.6658; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains the upside for retesting 0.6706 high. As noted before, rise from 0.5913 might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 0.6706 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. On the downside, below 0.6604 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 08006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

China’s November trade data delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound, with exports surging 5.9% yoy to USD 330.35B, sharply reversing October’s -1.1% decline. The improvement marks the strongest performance since early 2024.

However, the headline strength masks continued weakness in China–U.S. trade, where shipments plunged -28.6% yoy, extending a run of eight straight months of double-digit declines. Despite the one-year tariff truce, effective levies remain elevated—averaging 47.5% on Chinese goods entering the U.S. and around 32% on American goods entering China—keeping bilateral flows under heavy pressure.

A clear divergence across regions stood out. Exports to ASEAN partners climbed more than 8% yoy, while shipments to the EU jumped nearly 15% y/y, underlining a rotation in China’s export momentum toward other major markets.

Imports, however, rose a softer-than-expected 1.9% yoy, pointing to still-cautious domestic demand despite policy easing efforts. With exports outpacing imports, China’s trade surplus widened to USD 111.68B in November.

Japan’s economic data delivered a familiar combination of improving nominal pay but still-depressed real incomes. Real wages fell -0.7% yoy in October, the 10th consecutive decline, though the rate of contraction moderated for the second month. Officials highlighted that fewer part-time roles and a higher share of full-time employees—who earn more—helped support headline income levels. Yet inflation of 3.4% yoy, driven mainly by food prices, continued to outpace wage gains.

Nominal earnings were considerably stronger, rising 2.6% yoy and beating forecasts for 2.2%. That marks a three-month high and extends the run of increases to 46 straight months, giving policymakers some evidence that wage momentum is holding up. Regular pay also expanded a robust 2.6% yoy, while bonus-driven special payments surged 6.7% yoy, providing a further boost. strain, limiting the lift to consumption.

The bigger disappointment came from growth data. Japan’s Q3 GDP was revised down to -2.3% annualized, from the initial -1.8%, making it the weakest quarter since 2023.