Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3311; (P) 1.3336; (R1) 1.3357; More...

GBP/USD is staying in consolidations below 1.3384 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.3178 support intact, further rally is still expected. As noted before, fall from 1.3787 should have completed as a three-wave correction to 1.3008. On the upside, above 1.3384 will target 1.3470 resistance. Decisive break there will bring retest of 1.3787 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.66; (P) 155.07; (R1) 155.80; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, below 154.33 will target 55 D EMA (now at 153.27). Firm break there will extend the fall from 157,88 short term top to 150.90 cluster (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 157.88 at 151.00). On the upside, though, break of 156.17 resistance will indicate that the pullback has completed and bring retest of 157.88 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8014; (P) 0.8034; (R1) 0.8067; More…

USD/CHF's break of 0.8052 resistance suggests that pullback from 0.8101 has completed at 0.7990. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8101 and then 0.8123. As noted before, price actions from 0.7828 are developing into a corrective pattern. Firm break of 0.8123 will target 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7877 at 0.7812. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7990 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

European markets are treading water today, and the same pattern is visible in US futures as investors hold their positions ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision. With volatility expected to rise sharply mid-week, traders appear content to let the market consolidate and avoid premature positioning.

Even in this holding pattern, pockets of activity stand out—most notably in the Canadian Dollar. Loonie’s strength extends the momentum from last week’s impressive jobs report, which reinforced expectations that the BoC will keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% later this week. The tone from policymakers is expected to confirm that the easing cycle is finished and that the central bank is now in a prolonged pause.

Another tailwind in the background is political. US President Donald Trump signaled openness to restarting trade discussions with Canada after what he described as a “very productive” conversation with Prime Minister Mark Carney during a World Cup draw event. Carney’s office later described the talks as “constructive,” offering a glimmer of optimism.

On the other side of the spectrum, Swiss Franc is under broad pressure today. SNB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.00% and reiterate that the threshold for returning to negative rates remains high. Yet speculation has emerged that policymakers could tilt toward a more dovish tone, possibly even hinting at negative rates sometime next year.

Some traders appear to be positioning for that scenario, helping drive CHF lower against most major peers. Still, it is far too early to draw definitive conclusions about the policy path for 2026. Any refusal by SNB to entertain dovish speculation this week could spark a swift reversal in the Franc’s performance.

Attention is also turning toward tomorrow's RBA decision. A steady hold at 3.60% is effectively a foregone conclusion, but the focus is on Governor Michele Bullock’s messaging. Markets want to know whether she will explicitly shift the emphasis away from supporting growth and toward the still-unfinished battle against inflation.

While rate cuts are clearly off the table, expectations for a return to tightening in 2026 have grown louder. That said, some analysts caution that such speculation may be premature. Trimmed-mean inflation is only slightly above 3%, job ads have plateaued, and private-sector momentum remains uneven. Public-sector spending is also set to ease, creating additional downside risks.

Bullock’s communication will therefore be scrutinized line by line, particularly for any hint that the RBA is considering a policy pivot next year. For now, markets seem unsure whether she will validate or push back against emerging expectations for future hikes.

As of the latest positioning, Kiwi leads the performance board, followed by Loonie and then Euro. Swiss Franc is the weakest today, trailed by Yen and Sterling. Dollar and Aussie sit in the middle.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.02%. DAX is up 0.31%. CAC is down -0.12%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.014 at 4.495. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.042 at 2.844. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.18%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.23%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.54%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.54%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.02 to 1.972.

ECB’s Schnabel signals rates to stay put but next move likely a hike

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel struck a subtly hawkish tone in a Bloomberg interview, saying she is “rather comfortable” with market expectations that the ECB’s next move will be a rate hike. Still, she stressed that such expectations remain uncertain and that policymakers are “not currently” focused on when the next move might occur.

Schnabel reiterated that interest rates are “in a good place” and likely to remain there absent a major shock. What has changed, however, is the balance of inflation risks—which she said has “shifted to the upside”—a shift that naturally tilts the bias toward future tightening rather than easing.

Also, Schnabel flagged the possibility that the Eurozone’s natural rate of interest may be rising. Structural forces such as AI-driven investment and stepped-up public spending could lift the equilibrium rate over time, meaning the current stance may become increasingly accommodative if not adjusted. If policy drifts into a zone that is “too accommodative,” she said, that would be the moment to consider a further rate move.

Eurozone Sentix confidence edges higher to -6.2 but recovery still elusive

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved slightly in December, rising from -7.4 to -6.2, a touch better than expectations of -6.3. Both components strengthened, with Current Situation Index climbing from -17.5 to -16.5 and Expectations rising from 3.3 to 4.8. The figures reinforce a theme that has persisted through the past quarter: sentiment is no longer deteriorating, but neither is it showing convincing signs of a rebound.

Sentix noted that the Eurozone economy is “at best” stabilizing, even as global momentum improves across most other major regions. That divergence reflects the bloc’s inability to translate external tailwinds into domestic gains, with survey participants continuing to flag sluggish internal dynamics and weak demand conditions.

Germany remains the key drag heading into year-end. According to Sentix, recessionary forces in the Eurozone’s largest economy are still “having an impact,” and those pressures are filtering through to the wider region. Until German activity finds a firmer footing, the broader recovery narrative will remain tentative at best.

Japan’s wage picture improves but real incomes growth stays negative at -0.7%

Japan’s economic data delivered a familiar combination of improving nominal pay but still-depressed real incomes. Real wages fell -0.7% yoy in October, the 10th consecutive decline, though the rate of contraction moderated for the second month. Officials highlighted that fewer part-time roles and a higher share of full-time employees—who earn more—helped support headline income levels. Yet inflation of 3.4% yoy, driven mainly by food prices, continued to outpace wage gains.

Nominal earnings were considerably stronger, rising 2.6% yoy and beating forecasts for 2.2%. That marks a three-month high and extends the run of increases to 46 straight months, giving policymakers some evidence that wage momentum is holding up. Regular pay also expanded a robust 2.6% yoy, while bonus-driven special payments surged 6.7% yoy, providing a further boost. strain, limiting the lift to consumption.

The bigger disappointment came from growth data. Japan’s Q3 GDP was revised down to -2.3% annualized, from the initial -1.8%, making it the weakest quarter since 2023.

China’s exports rebound sharply by 5.9% yoy, US shipments remain deep in double-digit decline

China’s November trade data delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound, with exports surging 5.9% yoy to USD 330.35B, sharply reversing October’s -1.1% decline. The improvement marks the strongest performance since early 2024.

However, the headline strength masks continued weakness in China–U.S. trade, where shipments plunged -28.6% yoy, extending a run of eight straight months of double-digit declines. Despite the one-year tariff truce, effective levies remain elevated—averaging 47.5% on Chinese goods entering the U.S. and around 32% on American goods entering China—keeping bilateral flows under heavy pressure.

A clear divergence across regions stood out. Exports to ASEAN partners climbed more than 8% yoy, while shipments to the EU jumped nearly 15% y/y, underlining a rotation in China’s export momentum toward other major markets.

Imports, however, rose a softer-than-expected 1.9% yoy, pointing to still-cautious domestic demand despite policy easing efforts. With exports outpacing imports, China’s trade surplus widened to USD 111.68B in November.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8014; (P) 0.8034; (R1) 0.8067; More…

USD/CHF's break of 0.8052 resistance suggests that pullback from 0.8101 has completed at 0.7990. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8101 and then 0.8123. As noted before, price actions from 0.7828 are developing into a corrective pattern. Firm break of 0.8123 will target 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7877 at 0.7812. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7990 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Recovery leg extends into third straight day and accelerated on Monday (up 2.2% until mid-European session), with fresh bullish signals generated on lift above bear-channel upper boundary (90700) and Fibo 38.2% of 107502/80514 descend (90823).

Improving technical picture on daily chart underpins recovery which faces headwinds from falling 30DMA (92380), guarding upper breakpoints at 94000 zone (Fibo 50% / double-top of Dec 3;4) violation of which to further strengthen near term structure and expose target at 97192 (Fibo 61.8%).

Near-term action is expected to remain biased higher while holding above broken channel’s upper boundary, while returning below psychological 90K support would neutralize bulls.

Res: 92380; 93050; 94000; 95957
Sup: 90823; 90000; 89509; 87702

• The fate of the US dollar depends on capital flows and hawkish rhetoric from the Fed.
• Japan’s economic weakness is weighing on the yen, while the RBA is expected to keep rates at 3.6%

Americans are unhappy with high prices and tariffs and are sceptical about the economic outlook, but they continue to spend money. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 53.3 in December, driven by optimism about the end of the shutdown. Nevertheless, the index remains close to record lows. At the same time, Finance Minister Scott Bessent claims that US GDP will grow by 3% in 2025.

Foreign investors feel the same way about the US economy as Americans do. They are investing in securities but are sceptical about GDP growth prospects. As a result, the USD index could fall significantly lower, but it is not in a rush to do so. If the prospects for artificial intelligence technologies fade, capital flows from abroad will cease to support the dollar. On the contrary, the acceleration of gross domestic product under the influence of Donald Trump’s Big and Beautiful Tax Cuts Act will allow the USD index to recover.

For now, investors are waiting for the December FOMC meeting and updated forecasts. The futures market is predicting two or three rate cuts in 2026. If the Fed expects fewer, the US dollar will likely strengthen, despite its weakening to 3.75% in December. This will be facilitated by Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric at the press conference.

Concerns about such an outcome of the Fed meeting are putting a spoke in the wheel of USDJPY bears. Markets are expecting an overnight rate hike to 0.75% at the Bank of Japan’s December meeting. However, the weakness of the Land of the Rising Sun’s economy may force the BoJ to signal a prolonged pause in the cycle, which will put pressure on the yen. In this regard, the downward revision of third-quarter GDP to -2.3% casts doubt on its status as the favourite for 2026.

The Australian dollar may become the favourite among traders. The futures market is confident that the Reserve Bank will keep its key rate at 3.6% at its meeting on 8-9 December and is beginning to price in expectations of a hike next year. The sooner Michelle Bullock and her colleagues make a hawkish turn, the higher the AUDUSD will rise.

The key event of the week will take place on 10 December – at 22:00 GMT+3 the FOMC will publish its interest rate decision, followed half an hour later by a press conference with Jerome Powell.

As the chart of the dollar index (DXY) shows, the US dollar is weakening as the event approaches, reflecting market sentiment – the rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points due to pressure from Trump and a cooling labour market. This underpins the bearish trend that has been in place since late November.

A reminder that on 24 November we:

→ highlighted the importance of resistance around 100.20 points;

→ and constructed a system of two trend channels.

Since then, the price has moved lower within the descending channel, and:

→ new swing points have allowed us to refine the channel boundaries;

→ a large bearish double-top pattern (A–B) has formed on the chart above the psychological level of 100 points.

The dollar index chart indicates that selling pressure is dominant (as shown by the arrows):

→ the lower boundary of the ascending channel has switched its role from support to resistance;

→ a similar role reversal has occurred at the 99.11 level.

Today, the DXY index is near the lower boundary of the descending channel. It is reasonable to assume that in the short term:

→ the market will enter a wait-and-see mode ahead of the news;

→ a consolidation zone may form on the chart, supported by the lower boundary of the red channel.

Be prepared for surges in volatility on the currency markets on Wednesday evening.

Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved slightly in December, rising from -7.4 to -6.2, a touch better than expectations of -6.3. Both components strengthened, with Current Situation Index climbing from -17.5 to -16.5 and Expectations rising from 3.3 to 4.8. The figures reinforce a theme that has persisted through the past quarter: sentiment is no longer deteriorating, but neither is it showing convincing signs of a rebound.

Sentix noted that the Eurozone economy is “at best” stabilizing, even as global momentum improves across most other major regions. That divergence reflects the bloc’s inability to translate external tailwinds into domestic gains, with survey participants continuing to flag sluggish internal dynamics and weak demand conditions.

Germany remains the key drag heading into year-end. According to Sentix, recessionary forces in the Eurozone’s largest economy are still “having an impact,” and those pressures are filtering through to the wider region. Until German activity finds a firmer footing, the broader recovery narrative will remain tentative at best.

Full Eurozone Sentix release here.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel struck a subtly hawkish tone in a Bloomberg interview, saying she is “rather comfortable” with market expectations that the ECB’s next move will be a rate hike. Still, she stressed that such expectations remain uncertain and that policymakers are “not currently” focused on when the next move might occur.

Schnabel reiterated that interest rates are “in a good place” and likely to remain there absent a major shock. What has changed, however, is the balance of inflation risks—which she said has “shifted to the upside”—a shift that naturally tilts the bias toward future tightening rather than easing.

Also, Schnabel flagged the possibility that the Eurozone’s natural rate of interest may be rising. Structural forces such as AI-driven investment and stepped-up public spending could lift the equilibrium rate over time, meaning the current stance may become increasingly accommodative if not adjusted. If policy drifts into a zone that is “too accommodative,” she said, that would be the moment to consider a further rate move.

Full interview of ECB's Schnabel here.

The EUR/USD pair opened the week on a positive note, rising to 1.1653. The move was fuelled by mounting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this Wednesday, which continues to weigh on the US dollar. Markets are currently pricing in an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction, a significant increase from the 67% odds seen just one month ago.

However, uncertainty clouds the policy path beyond this week. A "hawkish cut" scenario also remains plausible, where Chair Jerome Powell could deliver the expected easing while simultaneously signalling a more cautious, data-dependent approach for 2026.

The data calendar will add to the volatility, starting with the delayed JOLTS job openings report for October, due Tuesday. This release will provide a crucial update on labour market tightness, including hiring, layoffs, and quit rates.

Globally, monetary policy decisions from the central banks of Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Switzerland will also be in focus this week, with all four expected to hold their benchmark rates steady.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD maintains a clear upward bias, trading just below a key resistance level at 1.1682. The pair's position above the middle Bollinger Band confirms the dominance of buyers. The gradual expansion of the upper band indicates rising volatility and suggests the market is preparing for a potential breakout attempt.

A decisive close above 1.1682 would be a significant bullish signal, opening the path towards the next major resistance zone of 1.1770–1.1780. Conversely, should a pullback occur, the nearest notable support is at 1.1547. A break below this level would signal a deeper corrective move towards the lower Bollinger Band.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is consolidating after a strong impulse that tested the 1.1680 resistance. It is currently holding above a key local support level at 1.1635, from which the most recent recovery originated.

The Stochastic oscillator is in overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a near-term pause or shallow pullback. Despite this, the broader H1 structure remains moderately bullish, with the price trading above the middle Bollinger Band and its lower band providing dynamic support.

A sustained breakout above 1.1680 would confirm a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 1.1720 and potentially 1.1750. On the downside, a failure to hold 1.1635 would be the first sign of weakening momentum, potentially triggering a correction towards the next demand zone at 1.1600–1.1580.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is trading with a firm bid ahead of a pivotal Fed meeting. While the expectation of a rate cut is providing near-term support, the central bank's forward guidance will be critical in determining the sustainability of the rally. Technically, the pair is at an inflection point, with a break above 1.1680/82 needed to unlock the next leg higher, while a hold below 1.1635 would suggest a period of consolidation or correction is due.