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Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a strong increase above the 1.3250 resistance.
• A bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.3235 on the 4-hour chart.
• Bitcoin recovered some losses and climbed above $92,000.
• Crude Oil price faced resistance near $60.00.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound formed a base and climbed above 1.3200 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD even cleared the 1.3250 resistance before the bears appeared.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 1.3250, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bulls pushed the pair above 1.3300 and there are chances of more upside.

Immediate resistance sits near 1.3350. The first key hurdle is seen near 1.3365. A close above 1.3365 could open the doors for a move toward 1.3400. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 1.3500.

On the downside, there is key support at 1.3265. The next support is 1.3240. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3235, below which the pair could start a steady decline to 1.3200.

A downside break below 1.3200 could send the pair toward 1.3165 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). The main support sits at 1.3050.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair gained bullish momentum, and the bulls were able to send the pair above the 1.1650 resistance.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• UK’s Construction PMI for Nov 2025 – Forecast 44.3, versus 44.1 previous.
• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 220K, versus 216K previous.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has successfully rebounded, passing the important $93,000 price point that many market participants have been watching. This comeback is seen as a necessary relief rally, pushing Bitcoin's price up to $93,007.12, which marks a 6.6% increase in just the last 24 hours.

After several weeks of falling prices, this price reversal seems strong and is supported by three main factors working together: significant changes in global economic policies (macroeconomic policy shifts), the fact that large investment firms can now easily buy and sell Bitcoin (unprecedented institutional distribution access), and certain patterns on the price charts that suggested a bounce was due (highly compressed technical indicators).
2025-12-03 20_02_46-Settings

The Factors Influencing Bitcoins Recovery

First, the US central bank (Federal Reserve) has officially ended its program of removing money from the economy (Quantitative Tightening or QT), which means they are now moving toward a policy that makes money more easily available (accommodating monetary policy). This boost in available money, or liquidity injection, has happened at the same time as a major shift in how large financial institutions view Bitcoin.

Second, investment firm Vanguard, which manages $9 trillion, has made it easier for its clients to access Bitcoin through certain investment products (third-party crypto ETFs).

Third, technical analysis suggests a huge move is coming. The price charts show that the price swings (volatility) have been at historic lows, a pattern that has always happened right before a massive, rapid price increase (parabolic price movements).

While these factors suggest the price is heading strongly upward and could soon go above $100,000, there is an immediate risk: the market remains fragile.

There is not enough trading volume right now (market depth has not fully recovered), meaning there isn't much liquidity. In this kind of environment, the market is highly prone to large, sudden price swings, making it very sensitive to any bad news or unexpected selling that forces traders to quickly close their positions (liquidation events).

However, because the fundamental drivers such as money flowing from central banks and real demand from major financial institutions are so strong, experts believe this price momentum is likely to last and is more than just a temporary fluctuation.

Institutional Demand Mechanics: The Distribution Revolution

The money flowing from large investment firms into Bitcoin has made a significant turnaround, suggesting that a period where money was rapidly leaving the market is over. Investment products known as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have started seeing money flow back in (net inflows), reversing four straight weeks where over $4.3 billion had been pulled out. Although the first week's rebound was modest at about $70 million, this shift confirms that institutional money is actively returning to the market.

This money is not just coming from one source. While BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is recovering, major inflows went into funds managed by Fidelity ($77.5 million) and ARK 21Shares ($88 million), showing a broad return of interest across many institutional players. These ETFs now manage over $119 billion and hold 6.5% of all existing Bitcoin, making them a permanent and crucial source of demand.

A huge structural change, dubbed the "Vanguard Effect," also boosted demand. Vanguard, one of the world's largest investment managers with up to $10 trillion in assets, started allowing its clients to buy crypto ETFs and mutual funds tied to Bitcoin and other digital assets (like ETH, XRP, and SOL) on its platform.

This move created immediate and massive demand, causing Bitcoin's price to jump 6% right when the US market opened. On that first day, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recorded about $1 billion in trading volume in the first half-hour alone. By making it easier for cautious, long-term investments, such as retirement and pension funds, to buy Bitcoin, Vanguard has permanently expanded the asset's reach, ensuring strong, sustained demand well into 2026.

Technical Analysis - BTC/USD

The confluence of positive structural and technical factors lends strong support to bullish forecasts heading into 2026.

Looking at structure and the setup appears highly bullish, the path forward will likely be non-linear and volatile.

The four-hour chart below has seen a shift in structure with price breaking above the previous swing high and resting on support at 91804.

Resistance to the upside may be found at 95000 before the 97000 and 100000 handles come into focus.

A potential pullback toward 90000 or the recent breakout at around the 86600 mark cannot be ruled out before the next leg higher.

The primary immediate risks center on macroeconomic data surprises. Any unexpectedly high reading in the PCE Inflation Data or stronger-than-expected labor reports could quickly dampen December rate cut expectations, triggering a sharp reversal in the relief rally.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 3, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

EURUSD: ⬆️ Buy

• EURUSD broke resistance zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1720

EURUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance trendline of the daily Down Channel from August and the resistance level 1.1645 (which stopped the previous impulse wave i).

The breakout of this Down Channel accelerated the active short-term impulse wave iii from the end fo November.

Given the multi-month daily uptrend and the bearish US dollar sentiment seen today, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.1720 (former top of wave B from October and the target price for the completion of the active wave iii).

AUDUSD: ⬆️ Buy

• AUDUSD broke daily Falling Wedge
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6615

AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily Falling Wedge from the middle of September.

The breakout of this Falling Wedge continues the active short-term correction ii, which stared earlier from the key multi-month support level 0.6420 (which has been reversing the price from May).

Given the clear daily uptrend, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.6615 (target price for the completion of the active wave ii).

Stock Markets opened mixed after a mildly positive overnight session in Futures and Global Indexes trading.

But after the ADP Miss confirming further next week's rate cuts and pricing in higher chances of another January cut (currently at 27% pricing), the fresh Services PMI beat sent conflicting signs to traders.

The headline number came in at 52.6 (beating the 52.1 forecast), but the internals provided the real story.

US Data from this morning – December 3, 2025 – MarketPulse Economic Calendar

On a positive note for the inflation outlook, the Prices Paid index declined significantly from 70.0 to 65.4, which confirms that tariff-led inflation was more of a one-time increase rather than a lasting effect—something that allows the Fed to be more flexible.

This view was further solidified by an unchanged import prices report (0.0% vs 0.1% expected) also released at 10:00 A.M (Even if the data is from September).

In other conflicting news, despite a way-more positive mood with the rate cut, Microsoft (MSFT) just sent a scary sign for the rebounding AI trend.

The tech giant gapped lower by 2.80% after a news article reported that the market leader has lowered its sales growth targets for newer AI products due to slower customer adoption.

Microsoft (MSFT) 4H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

This puts the AI-Peak conversations right back on the table.

The Nasdaq is getting dragged lower by this headline and is the only US index down on the current session, diverging sharply from a booming Dow Jones and Russell 2000. Rate cuts don't seem to be enough to offset such specific pessimistic news for the tech sector.

Mid-session Index performance (11:21 A.M) – Nasdaq lower. Source: TradingView

Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the Tech-heavy index as the divergence persists.

Nasdaq Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

Nasdaq (CFD) Daily Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Index has rebounded remarkably from its November lows (23,841) and now trades about 7.40% higher.

An ongoing dip-buying attempts are trying to lift the Index but is getting rejected.

The price action remains above the higher timeframe pivot (25,000 Level) giving bulls the upper hand, particularly after breaking out of the November bear Channel.

If the session doesn't close green, some profit-taking flows can easily take place.

Let's see why on shorter timeframes.

4H Timeframe and Technical Levels

Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Mean-reversion buyers are stepping in as we near the London Fix.

An attempt to break out of the Intermediate 25,000 (+/- 75 pts) Resistance is preventing the spreading of bearish flows as Microsoft attempts to correct the story that shook the Market at the open.

Still, the bearish candle from this morning may form the beginning of a bearish intraday divergence which will need to be tracked closely as Traders await Friday's Core PCE report and next Wednesday's FOMC.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Resistance at 25,500 Gap +/- 75 pts (testing)
• Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
• October 30 All-time Highs 26,283

Support Levels

• Pivot 25,000 to 25,250 (4H MA 50 and 200)
• 24,500 Main Support
• November lows 23,841
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

1H Chart

Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The 1H Timeframe depicts a short-timeframe Hourly Bull Channel which acted as a trigger for the ongoing bullish rebound leaving buyers in control.

Still, they will have to break the overnight futures Highs (25,645) if they want to re-integrate the broken May upwards Channel.

For Bears, look for a close below 25,350 which should coincide with a Channel break.

The Hourly Channel is the technical indicator to keep your eyes on for intraday trading.

Safe Trades!

The ISM Services index was roughly unchanged in November, increasing from 52.4 to 52.6 in November. The number of industries reporting growth last month increased to 12 out of 18, compared to 11 in the month prior.

Looking under the hood, the stability of the headline measure masks some shifts. The supplies delivery index showed slower performance in November, for the 12th consecutive month, and new orders gave back some of October's improvement.

On the flip side, the backlog of orders increased to 49.1 in November from 40.8 in October, putting it above its September level. This index has been volatile for the last several months. The imports index also increased, albeit remaining in contractionary territory, to 48.9 in November from 43.7 in October.

As was the case in October, the employment and new export orders indexes both improved, but remain in contractionary territory. The prices index declined by 4.6 points to 65.4, indicating that price pressures are still prevalent.

Key Implications

Respondents continue to point to disruptions in their operations from both tariffs and the government shutdown, though the end of the government shutdown is also bringing a lift for some. One survey respondent commented that uncertainty on how to source supplies is as high as it was during the pandemic, underscoring the challenge some industries face from tariffs.

While the ISM Services report has shown some volatility over the last several months, most of the sub-indexes that had turned lower in prior months are now showing signs that they may be turning the corner. The employment sub-index has continued its slow march towards expansionary territory but has not quite reached it yet. But perhaps the most significant development in this report is the decline in the prices index, which could help give the Federal Reserve some confidence that price pressures remain manageable. It seems competition is a factor as respondents expect to see margins decline to compete for business, which would lead to lower price increases.

Cable hit fresh five-week high on Wednesday after being initially boosted by better than expected UK Nov services PMI, while unexpected and strong drop in US private payrolls (ADP report) added to expectations of Fed December rate cut additionally inflated sterling.

The pair was up around 0.8%, on track for the biggest daily gain since late June.

Fresh rally broke through 1.3295 resistance (Fibo 61.8% of 1.3471/1.3009 / 55DMA) and cracked 200DMA (1.3319), nearing another significant barrier provided by the base of falling daily Ichimoku cloud.

Bulls may take a breather, due to significance of these resistances, but expected to keep bullish bias, due to positive fundamentals and improved technical picture on daily chart, as today’s acceleration broke above upper boundary of near-term bull-channel, while positive momentum continues to strengthen and daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen formed a bull cross.

Daily close above broken resistance at 1.3295 to validate fresh bullish signal, with potential dips to ideally hold above broken bull-channel upper boundary line (1.3263) and provide better buying levels.

Penetration of falling daily cloud to further strengthen bullish near-term structure for attack at 1.3360/70 zone (Fibo 76.4% / tops of Oct 24/28) and unmask cloud top (1.3432).

Res: 1.3370;; 1.3400; 1.3432; 1.3471
Sup: 1.3295; 1.3263; 1.3240; 1.3198

Gold prices are currently on a bullish rally having experienced a significant pullback and support test on Tuesday. The precious metal appears to have regained its shine as bulls returned to the party pushing prices to a high of $4240/oz in the early part of the US session.

The Federal Reserve

The current rally and supporting Gold’s valuation is the aggressive market expectation of impending monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Current forecasts indicate an 88% probability of a US interest rate cut in December, with broader market consensus pricing in approximately 90 basis points of easing by the end of 2026.

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Market participants are expecting the FED to start cutting rates despite mixed rhetoric. The expectations do keep the US Dollar (USD) under broad pressure and force US Treasury yields to drift lower.

US data continues to show subtle signs of weakness which further supports the rate cut narrative. US Manufacturing PMI data released this week showed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2%, marking the ninth straight month below 50.which is contractionary territory.

In addition, the pace of new customer orders is slowing down, and the number of people employed continues to shrink. Although the upward pressure on prices (inflation) is easing, the overall economic trends are still worrying. These underlying numbers suggest that the risk of an economic downturn, or recession, is increasing. This growing recession risk is good news for precious metals like gold and silver, as it supports the case for their price to rise significantly over the long term (a long-term bullish case).

There is also the case of the next Federal Reserve policymaker and comments by US officials around the Federal Reserve.The more comments we hear from members of the Trump administration regarding the Fed, the more likely market participants are to question the Fed's independence. This is another factor which could continue to support Gold prices in the short and medium term.

US PCE Data and Geopolitical Risk

We now know we will not receive any more official reports on job creation or consumer prices before the Federal Reserve's important policy meeting on December 10th. However, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, called the PCE data, is scheduled to be released later this week.

Recent reports on consumer and producer prices (the CPI and PPI reports) showed softer-than-expected inflation. This suggests that the impact of government tariffs on overall price increases has been minimal that they are making a lot of noise but not actually causing prices to spike (more bark than bite). Therefore, analysts expect this week's core PCE deflator (the official inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely) for September to also reflect this trend of lower, easing inflation.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Geopolitical risk remains an area of focus as the Trump administration seems dead set on confrontation and a potential regime change in Venezuela. Irrespective of whether market participants agree with such a move or not is irrelevant but what is relevant is the risks this poses.

Such risks usually have a tendency to lead to an increase in safe haven demand. Thus Gold prices could be a huge beneficiary if the US decides to mount a direct attack on Venezuela and is worth monitoring.

Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD)

Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is strong.

Price action looks favorable with a trendline retest yesterday before a bullish continuation reinforcing the narrative for bullish price action moving forward.

The period-14 RSI also shows signs that momentum remains bullish. A test of the 50 level also occurred yesterday with the RSI bouncing off this level, another sign of bullish momentum remaining in play.

The next move for the precious metal will be an intriguing one.

A four-hour candle close above the $4228/oz handle is needed if bulls are to push on. A rejection here could lead to another trendline test and bring the 50 and 100-day MAs into focus which rest at 4166 and 4136 respectively.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 3, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 74% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.

The week had started slowly in FX markets, characterized by mean-reverting, small up-and-down movements across all currencies as traders got back from their Thanksgiving break and awaited fresh data.

The US Dollar was holding its range calmly, bouncing yesterday, but the landscape shifted dramatically today.

The fresh monthly ADP Private Employment data delivered a shocker to the Market showing a contraction of -32,000 jobs (vs +10,000 gain exp).

This reading only anchors the rate cut expectations for next Wednesday's FOMC meeting (December 10th), effectively locking in the decision.

With US Yields diving lower on the news, traders are now starting to aggressively price in further cuts for later meetings in 2026 – the following will be on January 28th, as the debate over December becomes clear—the focus has shifted to how deep the recessionary cracks might be if US rates stay high.

These dynamics have taken Sterling (GBP) to the top of the majors, sitting at the other extreme of the Greenback. But why is the GBP performing so well?

Daily FX currency performance (9:08 A.M) – Source: Finviz

Beyond the Dollar weakness, the Pound is enjoying its own tailwinds.

The recently announced trade deal with the US regarding 0 tariffs on pharmaceuticals—which exempts UK exports from tariffs in exchange for pricing adjustments—has provided a massive boost to GBP/USD.

This comes as a relief for the Pound after the pair had dropped considerably throughout October, coming close to breaching the 1.30 level. Furthermore, the recent UK Budget had already restored some confidence in government spending, a sentiment exacerbated by Bank of England rates, which are now priced to remain the highest among OECD nations as inflation remains stickier than elsewhere.

Enough talk, let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of GBP/USD to spot where things could head towards for this Major FX pair.

GBP/USD Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart. December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Cable has now rallied 2.20% from its November lows (1.30130) and reaching the 1.33 psychological level.

Last month's trading was cataclysmic for Sterling, stuck in a downward trend but after its trough in early November, a following higher low as dovish bets raced back for the Fed was enough fuel to propel the currency higher to a breakout of its September descending Channel.

However, some crosscurrents are facing buyers:

The 200-Day Moving Average is acting as immediate resistance (Daily Highs at 1.33215)
The 50-Day MA recently posted a death cross (crossing below the 200-Day MA).

A close above the 200-MA should be enough to invalidate the mean-reverting elements with the next resistance being 1,000 pips higher to 1.34.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

GBP/USD 4H Chart. December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Conflicting signs arise on intraday charts: a break-retest of the channel points to buyer strength toward higher levels, supported by a bullish 50-200 MA Cross on the 4H timeframe.

On the other hand, a 4H bearish divergence is forming a could slow down the action.

After marking the technical levels, let's check out the shorter timeframe to spot a potential gameplan.

Levels to watch for the GBPUSD:

Resistance Levels

• Daily highs and 200-Day MA 1.3320
• 1.34 Key Pivot
• Resistance 1.3450 to 1.34650
• Resistance at the 1.36 zone
• Key Pivot Zone: 1.3450 to 1.3650

Support Levels

• Pivotal Support 1.3260-1.33 (Immediate test)
• 1.32 4H MA 50 and 200
• S2 1.3170 - 1.31850
• S3 at 1.30 Zone (+/- 300 pips)

1H Chart

GBP/USD 1H Chart. December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Buyers have taken control of the action with the ongoing tight bull channel action across intraday timeframes, with the entire short-term trend evolving within a fresh upward hourly channel.

Any retracement may hint at a test of the 1.3260 Support lows while a break above the 200-Day MA (1.3320) would purse the current buyer strength.

Safe Trades!