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US producer prices rose sharply in December, with PPI up 0.5% mom, well above expectations of 0.2% mom. The increase was driven almost entirely by services, where prices climbed 0.7% mom on the month. In contrast, goods were flat.

Excluding food, energy, and trade services, core PPI rose 0.4%, marking the eighth consecutive monthly increase.

On an annual basis, PPI held at 3.0% yoy, above expectations of slowing to 2.7% yoy.

Full US PPI release here.

Canada’s economy stalled in November, with GDP flat at 0.0% mom and undershooting expectations for a modest 0.1% mom increase. The drag came from goods-producing industries, which fell -0.3% mom, marking the third decline in four months. Manufacturing and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting were the main contributors to the contraction.

By contrast, services-producing industries edged up 0.1% mom, supported by gains in retail trade, education, and transportation and warehousing. Overall, 10 of 20 sectors expanded.

Early indications point to a 0.1% mom rise in December GDP, with manufacturing and wholesale trade offsetting weakness in mining and energy—suggesting growth remains fragile but not rolling over.

Full Canada GDP release here.

Key takeaways

• Gold likely formed a medium-term blow-off top: After surging to a record high of US$5,602, Gold reversed sharply with a 12% drop, signalling that the recent bullish acceleration phase has been damaged and may have peaked.
• Pullback driven by positioning and hawkish expectations: The sell-off appears driven more by stop-outs of leveraged long positions below US$5,238, amplified by speculation over a hawkish Fed Chair nominee, rather than any hard fundamental shock.
• Short-term bias turns corrective unless US$5,240 is reclaimed: Gold is now in a short-term corrective decline within a broader uptrend, with downside risks toward US$4,888–4,550 unless prices regain and hold above US$5,240, which would reopen upside squeeze risk

Since the start of this week, Gold (XAU/USD) continued to extend its bullish acceleration and hit the intermediate resistance zone at US$5,049/5,149, as highlighted.

The precious yellow metal printed a fresh all-time high of US$5,602 on Thursday, 29 January, and then staged a swift 11.8% decline to an intraday low of US$4,941 on Friday, 30 January, at the time of writing.

The volatile movement seen in Gold (XAU/USD) in the past 24 hours has not been triggered by any concrete fundamental catalysts.

Media reports suggesting that former US Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh may be nominated as the next Fed Chair, an announcement expected later today by President Trump, have been cited as the catalyst behind the ongoing pullback in precious metals.

Walsh is widely viewed as hawkish, raising concerns over tighter monetary policy and higher-for-longer interest rates, which have weighed on gold and broader precious metals prices.

Based on technical analysis and order flows, it seems like short-term speculative leveraged long positions got stopped when Gold (XAU/USD) crossed below a short-term pivotal support at US$5,238.

Overall, the short-term bullish acceleration phase for Gold has been damaged.

Let’s now look at the latest short-term technical elements to decipher the yellow metal’s potential trajectory for the next 1 to 3 days.

Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Corrective decline within a medium-term uptrend

Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 30 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 30 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the US$5,240 short-term pivotal resistance on Gold (XAU/USD) to maintain the ongoing minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at US$4,888, US$4,757, and US$4,630/4,550 (see Fig. 1).

On the flip side, clearance and an hourly close above US$5,240 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards US$5,473 and a retest of the current all-time high area of US$5,600

Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias

• The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have formed an impending daily bearish “Evening Star” candlestick pattern, which suggests this week’s bullish acceleration has transformed into a potential medium-term “blow-off” top (see Fig. 2).
• There is still further room for the current price actions to stage a further retracement towards the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.28; (P) 211.23; (R1) 212.40; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 214.83 holds, even in case of strong recovery. Below 209.61, and sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 209.27) will argue that it's correcting whole rise from 184.35 and target 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.83 at 203.18.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.34; (P) 183.04; (R1) 184.00; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Some consolidations would be seen and risk will stay on the downside as long as 186.86 holds, in case of strong recovery. Break of 181.76 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 182.28) should solidify the case that fall from 186.86 medium term top is correcting whole rise from 154.77. Deeper decline should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 186.86 at 174.60.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and and met 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside could be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Still, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 173.32) holds, even in case of deep pullback. Sustained break of 186.31 will pave the way to 78.6% projection at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8655; (P) 0.8663; (R1) 0.8676; More…

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral and risk stays on the downside with 0.8744 resistance intact. Further decline is expected to 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8625) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6882; (P) 1.6992; (R1) 1.7091; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first with current recovery. On the upside, firm break of 1.7232 resistance should confirm strong support from 100% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6851. Intraday bias will be back to the upside for 1.7466 support and above. However, decisive break of 1.6851 will likely bring downside acceleration to 138.2% projection at 1.6351 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as correction to up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. However, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.7473) holds. Sustained break of 1.6922 will raise the chance of bearish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5913.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9132; (P) 0.9164; (R1) 0.9183; More....

EUR/CHF's fall resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Decisive break of 161.8% projection of 0.9394 to 0.9268 from 0.9347 at 0.9143 extend larger down trend to 261.8% projection at 0.9017. On the upside, though, break of 0.9209 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, another rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9350) keeps outlook bearish. Downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9178 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

The Eurozone economy ended 2025 on slightly firmer footing, with GDP rising 0.3% qoq in Q4, modestly above expectations of 0.2%. Growth in the wider European Union matched that pace. On an annual basis, GDP expanded 1.3% yoy in the Eurozone and 1.4% yoy in the EU, easing slightly from Q3 but still consistent with a slow and uneven recovery.

Country-level figures showed a broadly constructive picture. Lithuania (+1.7%) led quarterly gains, followed by Spain and Portugal (both +0.8%), while Ireland (-0.6%) was the only member state to record a contraction. Year-on-year growth was positive in the vast majority of reporting countries, highlighting resilience despite ongoing structural and policy headwinds.

Full Eurozone GDP release here.

EUR/USD fell to 1.1919 on Friday. Despite this movement, the week ends with the US dollar experiencing its second consecutive decline. Pressure on the USD is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about economic policy in Washington, which is reducing investor confidence in the dollar.

The focus is on recent statements by US President Donald Trump. He threatened tariffs against countries supplying oil to Cuba and also warned Iran of possible military strikes if it refused to sign a nuclear agreement. An additional source of uncertainty was Trump's promise to announce the candidacy of a new Fed chair on Friday morning, following sustained pressure on Jerome Powell to cut rates more aggressively.

In parallel, the White House and Senate Democrats reached a preliminary agreement that avoids a government shutdown. This partially reduced short-term fiscal risks.

Earlier in the week, the dollar fell to levels not seen in almost four years after Trump expressed no concern about its weakening. Later, the US currency was supported by statements from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who remains committed to a strong dollar policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed a wave of growth towards 1.2080. A repeated breakdown of this resistance level may signal a continuation of the uptrend. At this stage, the pair is continuing the correction wave towards the support level of 1.1875. Technically, the correction scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its histogram and signal line both above zero, forming a downward wave. Upon completion of the correction, we anticipate the uptrend continuing towards 1.2045 and subsequently to 1.2200, with possible corrections along the way.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a correction after testing the resistance level. A rebound from the support level of 1.1860 would signal the formation of a new growth wave. The Stochastic oscillator's signal lines are pointing towards level 80, suggesting the uptrend may continue. Subsequently, the target for growth may be 1.2045.

Conclusion

In summary, while the EUR/USD pair has experienced a corrective pullback, the fundamental backdrop of geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty continues to weigh on the US dollar, underpinning the euro's relative strength. Technically, the correction appears poised to complete near key support levels, with indicators on both the H4 and H1 timeframes suggesting a high probability of resuming the prevailing upward trend. The overall bias remains bullish for a potential test of higher resistance zones.