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Cable hit fresh five-week high on Wednesday after being initially boosted by better than expected UK Nov services PMI, while unexpected and strong drop in US private payrolls (ADP report) added to expectations of Fed December rate cut additionally inflated sterling.

The pair was up around 0.8%, on track for the biggest daily gain since late June.

Fresh rally broke through 1.3295 resistance (Fibo 61.8% of 1.3471/1.3009 / 55DMA) and cracked 200DMA (1.3319), nearing another significant barrier provided by the base of falling daily Ichimoku cloud.

Bulls may take a breather, due to significance of these resistances, but expected to keep bullish bias, due to positive fundamentals and improved technical picture on daily chart, as today’s acceleration broke above upper boundary of near-term bull-channel, while positive momentum continues to strengthen and daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen formed a bull cross.

Daily close above broken resistance at 1.3295 to validate fresh bullish signal, with potential dips to ideally hold above broken bull-channel upper boundary line (1.3263) and provide better buying levels.

Penetration of falling daily cloud to further strengthen bullish near-term structure for attack at 1.3360/70 zone (Fibo 76.4% / tops of Oct 24/28) and unmask cloud top (1.3432).

Res: 1.3370;; 1.3400; 1.3432; 1.3471
Sup: 1.3295; 1.3263; 1.3240; 1.3198

Gold prices are currently on a bullish rally having experienced a significant pullback and support test on Tuesday. The precious metal appears to have regained its shine as bulls returned to the party pushing prices to a high of $4240/oz in the early part of the US session.

The Federal Reserve

The current rally and supporting Gold’s valuation is the aggressive market expectation of impending monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Current forecasts indicate an 88% probability of a US interest rate cut in December, with broader market consensus pricing in approximately 90 basis points of easing by the end of 2026.

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Market participants are expecting the FED to start cutting rates despite mixed rhetoric. The expectations do keep the US Dollar (USD) under broad pressure and force US Treasury yields to drift lower.

US data continues to show subtle signs of weakness which further supports the rate cut narrative. US Manufacturing PMI data released this week showed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2%, marking the ninth straight month below 50.which is contractionary territory.

In addition, the pace of new customer orders is slowing down, and the number of people employed continues to shrink. Although the upward pressure on prices (inflation) is easing, the overall economic trends are still worrying. These underlying numbers suggest that the risk of an economic downturn, or recession, is increasing. This growing recession risk is good news for precious metals like gold and silver, as it supports the case for their price to rise significantly over the long term (a long-term bullish case).

There is also the case of the next Federal Reserve policymaker and comments by US officials around the Federal Reserve.The more comments we hear from members of the Trump administration regarding the Fed, the more likely market participants are to question the Fed's independence. This is another factor which could continue to support Gold prices in the short and medium term.

US PCE Data and Geopolitical Risk

We now know we will not receive any more official reports on job creation or consumer prices before the Federal Reserve's important policy meeting on December 10th. However, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, called the PCE data, is scheduled to be released later this week.

Recent reports on consumer and producer prices (the CPI and PPI reports) showed softer-than-expected inflation. This suggests that the impact of government tariffs on overall price increases has been minimal that they are making a lot of noise but not actually causing prices to spike (more bark than bite). Therefore, analysts expect this week's core PCE deflator (the official inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely) for September to also reflect this trend of lower, easing inflation.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Geopolitical risk remains an area of focus as the Trump administration seems dead set on confrontation and a potential regime change in Venezuela. Irrespective of whether market participants agree with such a move or not is irrelevant but what is relevant is the risks this poses.

Such risks usually have a tendency to lead to an increase in safe haven demand. Thus Gold prices could be a huge beneficiary if the US decides to mount a direct attack on Venezuela and is worth monitoring.

Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD)

Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is strong.

Price action looks favorable with a trendline retest yesterday before a bullish continuation reinforcing the narrative for bullish price action moving forward.

The period-14 RSI also shows signs that momentum remains bullish. A test of the 50 level also occurred yesterday with the RSI bouncing off this level, another sign of bullish momentum remaining in play.

The next move for the precious metal will be an intriguing one.

A four-hour candle close above the $4228/oz handle is needed if bulls are to push on. A rejection here could lead to another trendline test and bring the 50 and 100-day MAs into focus which rest at 4166 and 4136 respectively.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 3, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 74% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.

The week had started slowly in FX markets, characterized by mean-reverting, small up-and-down movements across all currencies as traders got back from their Thanksgiving break and awaited fresh data.

The US Dollar was holding its range calmly, bouncing yesterday, but the landscape shifted dramatically today.

The fresh monthly ADP Private Employment data delivered a shocker to the Market showing a contraction of -32,000 jobs (vs +10,000 gain exp).

This reading only anchors the rate cut expectations for next Wednesday's FOMC meeting (December 10th), effectively locking in the decision.

With US Yields diving lower on the news, traders are now starting to aggressively price in further cuts for later meetings in 2026 – the following will be on January 28th, as the debate over December becomes clear—the focus has shifted to how deep the recessionary cracks might be if US rates stay high.

These dynamics have taken Sterling (GBP) to the top of the majors, sitting at the other extreme of the Greenback. But why is the GBP performing so well?

Daily FX currency performance (9:08 A.M) – Source: Finviz

Beyond the Dollar weakness, the Pound is enjoying its own tailwinds.

The recently announced trade deal with the US regarding 0 tariffs on pharmaceuticals—which exempts UK exports from tariffs in exchange for pricing adjustments—has provided a massive boost to GBP/USD.

This comes as a relief for the Pound after the pair had dropped considerably throughout October, coming close to breaching the 1.30 level. Furthermore, the recent UK Budget had already restored some confidence in government spending, a sentiment exacerbated by Bank of England rates, which are now priced to remain the highest among OECD nations as inflation remains stickier than elsewhere.

Enough talk, let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of GBP/USD to spot where things could head towards for this Major FX pair.

GBP/USD Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart. December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Cable has now rallied 2.20% from its November lows (1.30130) and reaching the 1.33 psychological level.

Last month's trading was cataclysmic for Sterling, stuck in a downward trend but after its trough in early November, a following higher low as dovish bets raced back for the Fed was enough fuel to propel the currency higher to a breakout of its September descending Channel.

However, some crosscurrents are facing buyers:

The 200-Day Moving Average is acting as immediate resistance (Daily Highs at 1.33215)
The 50-Day MA recently posted a death cross (crossing below the 200-Day MA).

A close above the 200-MA should be enough to invalidate the mean-reverting elements with the next resistance being 1,000 pips higher to 1.34.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

GBP/USD 4H Chart. December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Conflicting signs arise on intraday charts: a break-retest of the channel points to buyer strength toward higher levels, supported by a bullish 50-200 MA Cross on the 4H timeframe.

On the other hand, a 4H bearish divergence is forming a could slow down the action.

After marking the technical levels, let's check out the shorter timeframe to spot a potential gameplan.

Levels to watch for the GBPUSD:

Resistance Levels

• Daily highs and 200-Day MA 1.3320
• 1.34 Key Pivot
• Resistance 1.3450 to 1.34650
• Resistance at the 1.36 zone
• Key Pivot Zone: 1.3450 to 1.3650

Support Levels

• Pivotal Support 1.3260-1.33 (Immediate test)
• 1.32 4H MA 50 and 200
• S2 1.3170 - 1.31850
• S3 at 1.30 Zone (+/- 300 pips)

1H Chart

GBP/USD 1H Chart. December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Buyers have taken control of the action with the ongoing tight bull channel action across intraday timeframes, with the entire short-term trend evolving within a fresh upward hourly channel.

Any retracement may hint at a test of the 1.3260 Support lows while a break above the 200-Day MA (1.3320) would purse the current buyer strength.

Safe Trades!

Markets

EUR/USD is heading for an eighth consecutive daily trading gain. Unlike the minor improvements of the previous days, today’s move is worth the while. The pair is currently changing hands around 1.166 from a start at 1.1625 and testing first minor resistance at 1.1656 (November top). Modestly positive risk sentiment initially supported the move but dwindled as the US session developed. The US delegation is still in Russia to discuss the Ukrainian peace plan. The Kremlin said today that it wants to follow the silence principle as part of the talks, but also that it’s wrong to say that it rejected the plan all together. On a European level, the European Commission is preparing Trump-like tactics to assemble a €210b reparation loan for Ukraine, backed by immobilized Russian state assets. They look at invoking Article 122 of EU treaties which is an emergency legal basis for granting financial assistance on which the European Council can decide by qualified majority voting, sidestepping vetoes from for example Hungary or Belgium, and where European parliament is only informed and not a co-legislator. The commission also wants to extend the rollover period for sanctions from six months to three years to reduce the risk that assets would have to be transferred back to Russia if sanctions lapse. Apart from the constructive interpretation of these geopolitical developments, a cyclical element played as well in today’s EUR/USD move. The dollar lost interest rate support after the November ADP employment report showed 32k in job losses while consensus expected a small, 10k, gain. Since the month of June (-23k), ADP only reported job gains in the months of July and October with today’s print being the 2nd worse since June 2020. Companies with fewer than 50 employees shed 120k jobs, the largest one-month decline since May 2020. Wage growth cooled, with workers who changed jobs seeing a 6.3% increase in pay, the lowest since February 2021. The ADP report is only one of few up-to-date reports as US government agencies are still working their way through the shutdown delay. Official November payrolls and inflation reports will only be released after the December FOMC gathering. It’s nevertheless becoming clear that downside employment risks are gradually taking the upper hand, starting to build the case for more Fed rate cuts in Q1 2026 as well. Daily changes on the US yield curve range between -3 bps (5-yr) and -1.5 bp (30-yr) today. German yields only lose maximum 1 bp today. Sterling is slightly better bid (EUR/GBP 0.8770 from 0.8795) in a move that already started ahead of the upward revision to November PMI’s (composite 51.2 instead of 50.5).

News & Views

Swiss inflation fell by a more-than-expected 0.2% m/m in November. That dragged the annual figure from 0.1% to the zero bound of the Swiss National Bank’s 0-2% target range. The shrinking price level was a result of lower prices for hotel and international package holidays as well as new cars and fruiting vegetables, the statistical office’s press statement reads. Higher housing rental, heating oil and air transport inflation prevented an even lower outcome. Core inflation, 0.4% y/y, came in at the weakest since August 2021. The numbers make the SNB’s projected 0.4% average inflation for Q4 look infeasible, in theory supporting further monetary support. But policymakers have in the past said that the bar for further rate cuts is high, because that would bring it back to the era of negative rates which comes with all sorts of negative side effects. SNB officials have also stressed that brief periods of sub-zero inflation isn’t a problem as such. The SNB meets December 11 and money markets do not expect a move then (or later in 2026). The Swiss franc trades stoic around EUR/CHF 0.933.

The Indian rupee broke below the symbolically important 90 barrier against the USD today. The new record low for Asia’s worst performing currency was considered all but inevitable. Sentiment vs INR deteriorated sharply in recent weeks, amongst others due to the absence of a trade deal with the US. Negotiations are dragging and meanwhile a punitive 50% US import levy is smothering Indian exports. Combined with strong imports it’s pushing India’s trade deficit to a record high of >$40 bn in October, resulting in high dollar demand. The weak currency contrasts with India’s otherwise strong domestic economy (8.2% y/y in Q3). The absence of strong central bank intervention in addition is inviting speculative bets. The Reserve Bank of India meets this Friday. Consensus assumes a rate cut to 5.25% from 5.5% amid record low inflation but given recent INR weakness it may be a closer call than it appears.

US ISM Services PMI ticked up to 52.6 in November from 52.4, beating expectations of 52.0 and marking the ninth expansionary reading of 2025. Business activity improved slightly from 54.3 to 54.5, but new orders dropped sharply from 56.2 to 52.6, signaling cooling demand. Employment also improved modestly, rising from 48.2 to 48.9, though it remained in contraction.

The most notable development came from the prices index, which fell from 70.0 to 65.4, the lowest level since April. While still elevated, the decline suggests that inflation pressures in the services sector—an area closely watched by the Fed—are easing. Together with weakening order growth, the data add to a picture of gradual cooling beneath the surface.

According to the ISM, November’s reading corresponds to an annualized 1.3% increase in real GDP, indicating that the services sector is still contributing positively to overall activity. However, the combination of softer new orders and easing prices reinforces expectations of slower momentum into year-end.

Full US ISM services PMI release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3188; (P) 1.3205; (R1) 1.3231; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the upside as rebound from 1.3008 resumes. The break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.3263) suggests that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a correction. Further rise should be seen to 1.3470 resistance first. Break there will target 1.3725/3787 resistance zone. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3718 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3184) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2760) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8020; (P) 0.8036; (R1) 0.8046; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 0.7828 low is seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, above 0.8070 will indicate that pattern is still extending, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8123 and above. On the downside, below 0.7995 will bring deeper fall back towards 0.7877 support.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.47; (P) 155.83; (R1) 156.22; More...

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. With near term rising channel floor intact, further rally is expected. Above 156.57 minor resistance will bring retest of 157.88. Further break there will resume the whole rally from 139.87. Next target is 158.86 structural resistance, and then 161.94 high. However, sustained break of the channel support will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 153.06), and raise the chance of near term trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1602; (P) 1.1615; (R1) 1.1638; More….

EUR/USD's break of 1.1655 resistance argues that fall from 1.1917 has completed at 1.1467 as a correction. This is supported by the head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.1540, h: 1.1467, rs: 1.1490). Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1727 resistance. Firm break there will bring retest of 1.1917 high. Nevertheless, below 1.1590 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1345) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Dollar selling intensified again in early US session after another weak ADP employment report, marking the fourth decline in private payrolls over the past six months. The series of negative prints is now being viewed as a clear sign of deterioration in the labor market, prompting markets to extend their bearish repricing of the greenback ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

The latest ADP miss pushed the probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut this month to nearly 90%, with investors now treating a December move as all but baked in. Whether the Fed continues easing in Q1 remains less certain. Officials will have to weigh the ADP weakness against the upcoming official nonfarm payrolls report in two weeks—data that will arrive after the December policy decision and may heavily influence early-2026 expectations.

Adding to the uncertainty is speculation surrounding the Fed leadership transition. While not formally confirmed, markets widely expect US President Donald Trump to nominate his top economic adviser Kevin Hassett to replace Jerome Powell. Trump has suggested a formal announcement will come early next year, but traders are already gaming out the implications for forward guidance and institutional independence.

One emerging theme is the notion that Hassett could act as a “shadow Fed Chair” for several months before formally taking over, with markets potentially reacting as strongly to his comments as to those of Powell. If so, communication risks may rise into mid-2026 as investors adjust to a new center of gravity in policy messaging.

In FX, the Dollar sits firmly at the bottom of the weekly performance table for now, followed by Loonie and Kiwi. Euro leads, with Aussie and Sterling also posting gains. Yen and Swiss Franc are trading mid-range.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.14%. DAX is up 0.13%. CAC is flat. UK 10-year yield is down -0.025 at 4.448. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.015 at 2.740. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.14%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.28%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.51%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.36%.

US ADP jobs shock with -32k drop as small businesses cut deeply

US ADP private employment fell –32k in November, a sharp downside surprise versus expectations for 19k gain and marking one of the weakest readings of the year. Hiring declined in both major sectors, with goods-producing industries shedding -19k jobs and services losing -13k, highlighting broad cooling in labor demand.

The breakdown by firm size underscored the strain on smaller companies. Small businesses cut -120k jobs, overwhelmingly driving the headline decline, while medium-sized firms added 51k and large employers added 39k.

Wage growth also eased: pay for job-stayers slowed to 4.4% yoy from 4.5%, while job-changers saw pay growth fall to 6.3% yoy from 6.7%, continuing the trend of decelerating compensation pressures.

ADP’s Dr. Nela Richardson said the hiring backdrop has become increasingly uneven, citing “cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.” She emphasized that while the slowdown was widespread, the contraction was driven primarily by small businesses—often the most sensitive to shifts in demand and credit conditions.

Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 30-month high, mild Q4 acceleration expected

Eurozone Services PMI final rose to 53.6 in November from 53.0, marking a 30-month high and reinforcing the sector’s position as the main driver of regional growth. Composite PMI also improved to 52.8 from 52.5—another 30-month high—indicating that services strength more than compensated for continued manufacturing softness.

Country-level PMI Composite showed broad participation: Ireland led with a 42-month high at 55.8, while Italy also hit a 31-month high at 53.8. Germany (52.34) and Spain (55.1) softened slightly, and France returned to expansion at 50.4.

Hamburg Commercial Bank Chief Economist Cyrus de la Rubia said the data show “clear signs of recovery” across the services sector. The improvement was strong enough to lift overall Eurozone output, supporting expectations of a “slight acceleration” in Q4 growth. Though the headline index remains “far from a boom,” De la Rubia described the overall performance as “relatively robust,” underpinned by encouraging geographical breadth.

Price indicators delivered mixed but generally favorable signals for policymakers. Services selling-price inflation—which the ECB monitors closely—“weakened significantly” again, while wage growth c is gradually easing. Taken together, the data are likely to strengthen the ECB’s conviction in keeping interest rates on hold at the upcoming meeting.

UK PMI services finalized at to 51.3; Client caution and margin pressures build

UK Services PMI was finalized at 51.3 in November down from October's 52.3. Composite PMI eased to 51.2 from 52.2, marking a clear loss of momentum after several months of improvement. S&P Global’s Tim Moore said the data show an “abrupt end” to the gradual recovery in order books seen since summer, with demand weakening in both domestic and export markets.

Lower workloads fed through to a slowdown in business activity growth, pushing expansion well below the post-pandemic trend. Firms also cut staffing levels at the fastest pace since February, pointing to an increasingly cautious operating environment. Survey respondents cited fragile client confidence, rising risk aversion and elevated policy uncertainty in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, with many delaying major spending decisions.

Competitive pressures intensified as firms struggled with weak sales pipelines. While input cost inflation accelerated—largely due to higher wages—selling price inflation rose at the slowest pace in nearly five years, signaling a squeeze on margins.

Swiss CPI back at 0.0% as broad price declines in November

Swiss inflation softened in November, with headline CPI falling -0.2% mom, in line with expectations, while annual inflation slowed from 0.1% yoy to 0.0%, undershooting forecasts of 0.1%. Core CPI also dipped, falling -0.1% yoy, with the annual rate easing from 0.5% yoy to 0.4%. The data highlight Switzerland’s continued weak inflation, keeping price growth far below levels seen elsewhere in Europe.

Both domestic and imported prices contributed to the decline. Domestic products fell -0.2% mom, while imported goods dropped a sharper -0.4% mom. On a yearly basis, domestic inflation cooled from 0.5% yoy to 0.4%, and imported prices remained deeply negative at -1.3% yoy. The persistent weakness in imported goods continues to anchor Swiss inflation near zero.

RBA’s Bullock warns inflation persistence may require renewed tightening

RBA Governor Michele Bullock told the Senate Economics Legislation Committee that the bank remains on high alert for renewed inflation pressure and is prepared to act if price gains prove "more persistent" than expected. She noted that upcoming data in the next few months will be crucial in determining whether demand pressures are easing, adding that officials may still have to pivot back toward tightening if inflation shows signs of regaining strength.

Facing questions on past budget and inflation mis-projections, Bullock conceded the RBA “hasn’t done it yet” in bringing inflation sustainably back to target, and must continue working toward that objective. She stressed that the board must “keep working on this”.

With national debt set to exceed AUD 1 trillion and a deficit of AUD 42 billion projected, she noted that lower public and private savings—if paired with unchanged investment—could "put upward pressure on the neutral rate,” she said."

But she added that that such an outcome is possible but contingent on both domestic and global forces. She emphasized that while the RBA can respond to domestic dynamics, but we don’t control global factors."

Australia Q3 GDP misses forecast at 0.4%, per capita output stagnates

Australia’s economy expanded 0.4% qoq in Q3, below expectations for 0.7% and marking a softer outcome despite a 2.1% yoy rise from a year earlier. The headline result reflected steady domestic activity supported by private investment and household consumption. However, GDP per capita was flat, suggesting growth is tracking population gains rather than delivering broad-based improvement in living standards.

A key drag came from external accounts. Inventory rundown—used to support export volumes—subtracted meaningfully from growth, while net trade also weighed as imports rose faster than exports. The pattern highlights ongoing pressure on Australia’s trade balance even as domestic demand remains resilient.

Grace Kim, ABS head of National Accounts, described Q3 performance as “steady,” noting growth matched the post-pandemic quarterly average. Kim added that per capita GDP stagnation reflected population dynamics rather than outright weakness in activity, with the measure still 0.4% above its level a year earlier.

Japan PMI services holds strong at 53.2, optimism hits year high

Japan’s Services PMI was finalized at 53.2 in November, edging up from 53.1 in October. Composite PMI also improved, rising to 52.0 from 51.5. S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes noted “a number of positive developments,” with the sector consistently driving overall activity since mid-year.

Forward-looking indicators strengthened notably. Business optimism and hiring intentions both climbed to their highest levels since early 2025. New orders also accelerated modestly, the first pickup in three months, signaling a gradual improvement in underlying demand even if the pace remains mild. However, the positive momentum was accompanied by firmer inflation pressures. Input costs rose at the fastest rate since May, prompting another solid increase in selling prices as firms sought to protect margins.

With Japan’s new stimulus package now approved—aimed at supporting growth and offsetting rising costs—markets will be watching closely to see whether demand and output continue to improve in the coming months.

China's RatingDog PMI services falls to 52.1, expansion loses pace, employment and margins under pressure

China’s RatingDog Services PMI eased in November, slipping from 52.6 to 52.1, while Composite PMI fell from 51.8 to 51.2. Both measures remained in expansionary territory, but the decline signaled moderation in growth momentum heading into year-end.

Yao Yu, Founder of RatingDog, said the services sector remained “relatively stable,” though November’s reading marked the weakest level since Q2. External demand showed mild improvement and offered “marginal support,” but domestic conditions were less encouraging.

Employment contracted again, profit margins came under pressure, and business expectations weakened—factors Yao described as the “main constraints” on the sector.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1602; (P) 1.1615; (R1) 1.1638; More….

EUR/USD's break of 1.1655 resistance argues that fall from 1.1917 has completed at 1.1467 as a correction. This is supported by the head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.1540, h: 1.1467, rs: 1.1490). Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1727 resistance. Firm break there will bring retest of 1.1917 high. Nevertheless, below 1.1590 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1345) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.