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US ADP private employment fell –32k in November, a sharp downside surprise versus expectations for 19k gain and marking one of the weakest readings of the year. Hiring declined in both major sectors, with goods-producing industries shedding -19k jobs and services losing -13k, highlighting broad cooling in labor demand.

The breakdown by firm size underscored the strain on smaller companies. Small businesses cut -120k jobs, overwhelmingly driving the headline decline, while medium-sized firms added 51k and large employers added 39k.

Wage growth also eased: pay for job-stayers slowed to 4.4% yoy from 4.5%, while job-changers saw pay growth fall to 6.3% yoy from 6.7%, continuing the trend of decelerating compensation pressures.

ADP’s Dr. Nela Richardson said the hiring backdrop has become increasingly uneven, citing “cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.” She emphasized that while the slowdown was widespread, the contraction was driven primarily by small businesses—often the most sensitive to shifts in demand and credit conditions.

Full US ADP release here.

• December, a seasonally weak month for the dollar, coincided with expectations of aggressive easing by the Fed.
• Divergence in monetary policy is helping the Yen and the Australian dollar.

The first step is the hardest! At the start of winter, the dollar’s decline accelerated, a trend consistent with seasonal patterns. December is traditionally a bearish month for the US currency — over the past 25 years, the dollar has declined on 18 occasions. The repatriation of profits by non-residents from investments in US stocks and bonds requires USD sales. Given the record demand for US securities from foreign investors, this process could give new impetus to the EURUSD rally.

Usually in December, the US dollar performs the worst against the franc and the Swedish krona. At the same time, the struggle with the yen and the Loonie intensifies to the limit. The former looks like the favourite this time around amid expectations of a key rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December. The decline in USDJPY is developing alongside the growing chances of a rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75% on 19 December.

Investors are playing on the divergence in monetary policy. The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3% in 2026, whereas the BoJ forecasted a hike to 1.25%. The narrowing of the yield spread between these countries’ bonds shifts the balance in favour of the yen on Forex next year.

The anticipation of death is worse than death itself. Donald Trump’s statement that the new Fed chair will be announced in early 2026, rather than by Christmas as Scott Bessent had previously said, is not helping the dollar. Along with the expectation of Kevin Hassett’s arrival at the helm of the Fed, the expected scale of monetary expansion is growing. This is bad news for USD.

Other currencies are taking advantage of the greenback’s weakness. AUDUSD rose to a 5-week high on growing chances of an RBA base rate hike next year due to accelerating inflation. The rally in US stock indices supports the Aussie, as well as the associated improvement in global risk appetite, and the most significant strengthening of the Chinese yuan since 2020. Unlike the first trade war, when USDCNH soared by 13%, this time the tariffs did not scare off the bears.

Today, Bitcoin is trading above the psychological $90,000 mark – its highest level in over ten days.

Following a severe drop of more than 30% from October’s highs, the market had been lacking positive momentum. Confidence was boosted by:

→ investment giant Vanguard allowing clients to purchase spot Bitcoin ETFs on its platform;

→ news from Strategy Inc (we covered MSTR shares yesterday), which holds around 650,000 bitcoins and confirmed it has no plans to sell them in “emergency mode,” avoiding a flood of supply that could further depress the market.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD

Since the summer, Bitcoin has been moving within a descending channel (shown in red), with:

→ the 21 November low (A) marking the lower boundary of the channel;

→ yesterday’s breakout above the QL line (which divides the lower half into quarters) accelerating price growth.

The formation of lows A and B suggests bullish potential, as they:

→ resemble a “Cup with Handle” pattern;

→ indicate aggressive demand.

However, further upside may be constrained by the channel’s median. As shown by the black segments, this line previously acted as support, so traders should consider the possibility that it may now function as resistance.

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The USD/JPY pair fell to 155.67 on Wednesday, recovering part of the previous session’s sharp losses. The decline was driven by renewed pressure on the US dollar, as market expectations for a deeper Federal Reserve easing cycle gained traction.

Domestically, investor attention remains firmly fixed on the likelihood of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike at its December meeting. This possibility has been underscored by recent hawkish signals from certain BoJ officials, creating a contrast with market perceptions that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government favours more accommodative monetary conditions.

This week, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama sought to downplay any perceived policy rift, stating there is no discrepancy between the government’s and the central bank’s economic assessments. This remark underscores the continued official emphasis on coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.

Her comments followed a speech by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who expressed confidence in Japan’s economic outlook and confirmed the central bank will carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of a rate increase at its December policy review.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY remains in a downward correction phase following its accelerated rally in mid-November. The pair is trading below the key resistance level of 156.76, forming a potential reversal structure near the lower Bollinger Band. Selling pressure persists, as evidenced by the market’s failure to sustain a move above the indicator’s middle band.

A decisive break below the 154.66 support level would signal a deeper correction, targeting the area of previous local lows. Conversely, a sustained recovery and close above 156.76 would provide the first technical signal of a potential recovery, opening a path for the pair to retest the 157.90–158.00 resistance zone.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is undergoing an upward correction after rebounding from support at 157.91. However, the upside appears constrained by the upper Bollinger Band. While buyers are attempting to push above the intermediate resistance at 158.40, price action remains choppy and lacks clear directional conviction.

The technical picture suggests a phase of sideways consolidation with a downside bias. Maintaining the price below 158.45 increases the likelihood of a retest of 157.91. A break below this level would strengthen the bearish scenario, targeting the lower boundary of the current range. For a confirmed bullish shift, a sustained move above 158.45, followed by a breakout towards 158.80–159.00, would be required.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is consolidating its recent decline amid a tug-of-war between a softer US dollar and evolving expectations for BoJ policy. The technical structure across both timeframes suggests a cautious, range-bound environment with a current tilt towards the downside. The immediate directional catalyst will likely be the BoJ’s December meeting, but in the near term, traders should watch for a break outside the 156.76–154.66 range on the H4 chart for a clearer signal on the pair’s next significant move.

GBP/USD is showing bullish signs above the 1.3180 zone. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and might extend its upward move above 0.8800.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is gaining pace above 1.3200 against the US Dollar.
• There is a declining channel forming with support at 1.3180 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase above 0.8765 and 0.8775.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.8800 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a positive zone above 1.3080. The British Pound formed a base and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair gained pace for a move above 1.3130 and 1.3180. The pair even settled above 1.3200 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.3275 before there was a downside correction.

The pair dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3038 swing low to the 1.3275 high. However, the bulls are active above 1.3180. There is also a declining channel forming with support at 1.3180.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.3250. The next key hurdle sits at 1.3275. If the RSI moves above 70 and the pair climbs above 1.3275, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward 1.3350 or even 1.3400.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.3180. If there is a downside break below 1.3180, the pair could accelerate lower. The next area of interest might be 1.3130, below which the pair could test 1.3080. Any more losses could lead the pair toward 1.3035.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.8745. The Euro traded above 0.8765 to move into a positive zone against the British Pound.

The EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair settled above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8780. There was a clear move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8818 swing high to the 0.8745 high.

Immediate resistance is near 0.8800 and a bearish trend line. The next breakout zone sits near the 0.8815 level. A close above 0.8815 might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8830.

Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.8850 in the coming days. Immediate support sits near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.8790.

The next hurdle for the bears might be 0.8765. A downside break below 0.8765 might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 0.8745. Any more losses might send the pair to 0.8720.

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Eurozone PPI edged up 0.1% mom in October but fell -0.5% yoy, coming in softer than expectations of -0.4% yoy.

The monthly gain in Eurozone PPI reflected modest increases across most major categories, including intermediate goods, energy, capital goods and durable consumer goods, each rising 0.1%. Non-durable consumer goods were the exception, slipping -0.2% and weighing slightly on the headline.

In the wider EU, PPI also rose 0.1% mom but was down -0.2% yoy. Price movements across member states were uneven. Bulgaria recorded the sharpest monthly increase at 4.6%, followed by Ireland (1.4%) and Estonia (1.3). Meanwhile, Slovakia (-1.0%), Poland (-0.5%) and Italy (-0.4%) saw notable declines.

Full Eurozone PPI release here.

UK Services PMI was finalized at 51.3 in November down from October's 52.3. Composite PMI eased to 51.2 from 52.2, marking a clear loss of momentum after several months of improvement. S&P Global’s Tim Moore said the data show an “abrupt end” to the gradual recovery in order books seen since summer, with demand weakening in both domestic and export markets.

Lower workloads fed through to a slowdown in business activity growth, pushing expansion well below the post-pandemic trend. Firms also cut staffing levels at the fastest pace since February, pointing to an increasingly cautious operating environment. Survey respondents cited fragile client confidence, rising risk aversion and elevated policy uncertainty in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, with many delaying major spending decisions.

Competitive pressures intensified as firms struggled with weak sales pipelines. While input cost inflation accelerated—largely due to higher wages—selling price inflation rose at the slowest pace in nearly five years, signaling a squeeze on margins.

Full UK PMI services final release here.

Eurozone Services PMI final rose to 53.6 in November from 53.0, marking a 30-month high and reinforcing the sector’s position as the main driver of regional growth. Composite PMI also improved to 52.8 from 52.5—another 30-month high—indicating that services strength more than compensated for continued manufacturing softness.

Country-level PMI Composite showed broad participation: Ireland led with a 42-month high at 55.8, while Italy also hit a 31-month high at 53.8. Germany (52.34) and Spain (55.1) softened slightly, and France returned to expansion at 50.4.

Hamburg Commercial Bank Chief Economist Cyrus de la Rubia said the data show “clear signs of recovery” across the services sector. The improvement was strong enough to lift overall Eurozone output, supporting expectations of a “slight acceleration” in Q4 growth. Though the headline index remains “far from a boom,” De la Rubia described the overall performance as “relatively robust,” underpinned by encouraging geographical breadth.

Price indicators delivered mixed but generally favorable signals for policymakers. Services selling-price inflation—which the ECB monitors closely—“weakened significantly” again, while wage growth c is gradually easing. Taken together, the data are likely to strengthen the ECB’s conviction in keeping interest rates on hold at the upcoming meeting.

Full Eurozone PMI services final release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market soared by almost 7% over the past day, reaching a capitalisation of $3.15T and forming a higher local peak compared to Sunday. The mood on the crypto market was buoyed by moves from institutional giants Vanguard and Bank of America to open access to digital assets for their clients. Combined with the fact that the low point on December 1st is higher than the lows on November 21st, we are seeing a series of vital signs of an upward trend forming. However, a conservative view suggests that fluctuations below $3.38T are a correction from the previous decline.

Bitcoin approached $94K on Wednesday morning, recovering half of its losses from the sell-off between November 11th and 21st. Considering the entire decline from its October peak, BTCUSD remains trading below $ 98K as part of the correction. The $98-100K range contains three psychologically significant levels: the 50-day average, early November support, and 61.8% of the decline from the peak. Consolidation above this level could convince buyers that crypto winter has not arrived.

News Background

Vanguard, the world’s second-largest investment company by assets, will open access to crypto ETF trading for its clients on December 2nd. The company had previously stated that it would avoid Bitcoin funds because cryptocurrency is an “immature asset class” and does not fit with the company’s philosophy.

Bank of America, one of the largest banks in the United States, has recommended that its institutional clients allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies. Previously, investors were unable to access cryptocurrencies because advisors were prohibited from recommending such instruments.

The four-year cycle theory has ceased to work, so Bitcoin has a chance to reach new highs in 2026, according to Grayscale. Analysts believe there are already some signs that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 205.43; (P) 205.85; (R1) 206.36; More...

GBP/JPY is extending consolidations below 207.18 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 204.26 support holds. Above 207.18 will resume larger rise to retest 208.09 high. Firm break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. However, decisive break of 204.26 will bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 202.94).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 199.04 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.