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RBA Governor Michele Bullock told the Senate Economics Legislation Committee that the bank remains on high alert for renewed inflation pressure and is prepared to act if price gains prove "more persistent" than expected. She noted that upcoming data in the next few months will be crucial in determining whether demand pressures are easing, adding that officials may still have to pivot back toward tightening if inflation shows signs of regaining strength.

Facing questions on past budget and inflation mis-projections, Bullock conceded the RBA “hasn’t done it yet” in bringing inflation sustainably back to target, and must continue working toward that objective. She stressed that the board must “keep working on this”.

With national debt set to exceed AUD 1 trillion and a deficit of AUD 42 billion projected, she noted that lower public and private savings—if paired with unchanged investment—could "put upward pressure on the neutral rate,” she said."

But she added that that such an outcome is possible but contingent on both domestic and global forces. She emphasized that while the RBA can respond to domestic dynamics, but we don’t control global factors."

Australia’s economy expanded 0.4% qoq in Q3, below expectations for 0.7% and marking a softer outcome despite a 2.1% yoy rise from a year earlier. The headline result reflected steady domestic activity supported by private investment and household consumption. However, GDP per capita was flat, suggesting growth is tracking population gains rather than delivering broad-based improvement in living standards.

A key drag came from external accounts. Inventory rundown—used to support export volumes—subtracted meaningfully from growth, while net trade also weighed as imports rose faster than exports. The pattern highlights ongoing pressure on Australia’s trade balance even as domestic demand remains resilient.

Grace Kim, ABS head of National Accounts, described Q3 performance as “steady,” noting growth matched the post-pandemic quarterly average. Kim added that per capita GDP stagnation reflected population dynamics rather than outright weakness in activity, with the measure still 0.4% above its level a year earlier.

Full Australia GDP release here.

Meeting Demand Through Stockpiles Today, Productivity Tomorrow

• The September quarter National Accounts show growth slowed to 0.4%qtr – this was softer than both the 0.8%qtr expected by Westpac Economics and the 0.7%qtr expected by the market. Despite this, upward revisions to previous activity saw the year-ended outcome accelerate to 2.1%yr – this year-ended growth rate was in line with Westpac Economics forecasts of 2.3%yr.
• Domestic demand was strong, accelerating as Australia’s economic upswing broadened to include business investment and the construction sector, while new public demand resumed its climb after going sideways over the past two quarters. However, the pickup in housing construction and business investment was a little softer than we expected.
• Inventory stockpiles were run down to meet this demand. Going forward increasing demand is likely to be met by more capacity with productivity growth accelerating to 0.8%yr. Looking at the market (ex-mining) sector, the productivity turnaround appears to be more impressive, accelerating to 1.4%yr.

The detail 

The September quarter National Accounts show growth slowed to 0.4% over the quarter while upward revisions to previous activity saw the year-ended outcome accelerate to 2.1%yr – a touch above the RBA’s updated trend estimate of +2.0%yr but slightly below Westpac Economics’ estimate of trend.

Domestic demand (spending by consumers, businesses, and governments) grew a solid 1.2%qtr over the September quarter and 2.6% in year-ended terms – the strongest quarterly growth since the June quarter 2012 (outside the pandemic). There was no need for a ‘handover’ with both the private and public sectors contributing to the pickup in domestic demand.

New private demand grew a strong 1.2%qtr and 3.1% in year-ended terms – also the fastest quarterly pace since the March quarter 2012 (outside the pandemic). While the consumer contributed, the standout was new business investment which grew 3.4%qtr and 3.8%yr. Despite this lift, the outcome was a touch softer than our 5.8%qtr forecast as engineering construction disappointed on the downside (-0.7%qtr v forecast of 2.0%qtr). Victoria recorded an outsized sharp 8.0% fall in engineering construction activity. Timing difference with the construction work done partial is one possible explanation of this discrepancy.

The positive news was that we saw investment increases across most of the asset classes, including machinery (7.5%qtr and 6.2%yr); and new building (2.0%qtr and 2.1%yr). And while data centre fit outs and the purchase of civil aircrafts were the main contributors to the boost in machinery, capex data showed that the lift was broader to also include consumer facing industries (such as accommodation and food services) and some business facing industries (such as administrative and support services).

Housing construction activity grew 1.8%qtr and 6.5%yr. Here too the quarterly outcome was softer than we expected based on the partial data (+1.8%qtr v +3.2%qtr). However, the year ended outcome was in line with our forecasts as activity in previous quarters was revised higher. The quarterly outcome was driven by both the construction of new dwellings (2.6%qtr) and renovation activity (0.5%qtr). There remains a healthy pipeline of projects to work through, which should support housing construction activity going forward.

Firmer consumer spending extended into Q3, with household spending growing 0.5%qtr and 2.5%yr. This follows the bumper June quarter outcome of 0.9%qtr, which was partly driven by one-offs including the roll-off of state electricity rebates, larger than usual EOFY discounting, and holiday spend around Easter and ANZAC Day.

With population growth projections running at 1.7%yr, this implies consumption per capita has started to post sizable increases. The Aussie consumer continues to be supported by rising real incomes which grew 0.9%qtr and 3.8%yr. A key uncertainty is whether this income boost will fade if interest rates were to remain on hold for longer and as the Stage 3 tax cuts are chewed away by bracket creep (we saw personal income tax increase as a share of household income this quarter). Without this boost, consumption could slow which would have implications for the labour market.

On the flip side, the upswing is likely to gain greater momentum the longer it runs, which increases the likelihood it will become self-sustaining, boosting incomes and supporting consumption going forward. The Westpac–DataX Card Tracker Index shows spending picked up in October, suggesting momentum is extending to the December quarter.

Net exports and inventories were broadly in line with expectations. A rundown in mining, public sector, and consumer goods inventories has detracted around 0.5ppts from Q3 growth, while net exports added a further 0.1ppt drag.

Note, the statistical discrepancy detracted 0.1ppt from growth over the quarter, compared to a 0.2ppt contribution last quarter.

It’s not only demand, supply is also responding

Labour productivity bounced to grow 0.8%yr. Digging a little deeper, we estimate that productivity in the market (ex-mining) sector grew at around 1.4%yr in Q3 (estimates will be finalised after Friday’s Labour Accounts).

As well as moderating growth in the sector’s unit labour costs to around 3.3% in six-month annualised terms, this supports the view that whole-economy productivity growth will recover as the sector-specific factors in mining and the care economy wash out.

Click here for: Westpac Chart Pack - Q3 National Accounts

Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil prices started a recovery wave from $57.20.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $60.30 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold started a fresh increase above $4,150 and $4,180.
• EUR/USD is consolidating below the 1.1650 resistance zone.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil price found support near $57.20 against the US Dollar. It started a recovery wave above the $58.20 and $58.50 levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $60.95 swing high to the $57.18 low. However, the bears remained active near the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $59.60 level. The first key hurdle for the bulls could be $60.00. The main hurdle sits at $60.50. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60.30.

A close above $60.50 might send Oil prices toward $62.20. Any more gains might call for a test of $65.00 in the near term.

On the downside, the first major support sits near the $58.60 zone. The next support could be $58.30. A daily close below $58.30 could open the doors for a larger decline. In the stated case, the bears might aim for a drop toward $56.20. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the $55.00 zone.

Looking at Gold, the bulls remained in action, and the price started a fresh increase above the $4,180 resistance.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• Euro Zone Services PMI for Sep 2025 – Forecast 53.1, versus 53.1 previous.
• UK Services PMI for Sep 2025 – Forecast 50.5, versus 50.5 previous.
• US S&P Services PMI for Sep 2025 – Forecast 55.0, versus 55.0 previous.
• US ISM Manufacturing Index for Sep 2025 – Forecast 52.1, versus 52.4 previous.

Falling to $4,205, down 0.63%, gold pricing has retraced from recent highs in today’s trading.

Having recently painted new six-week highs, rallying from support at $4,056, downside in today’s session can be considered primarily technical profit-taking.

While the fundamental footing for precious metals remains firm, recent US data, particularly in the US labour market, continues to add to the dovish narrative, bolstering metal pricing.

What’s next for gold?

Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 02/12/2025

• Fair to say, recent gold upside comes almost entirely from developments around the Federal Reserve, with commentary suggesting an increasingly dovish stance ahead of their December decision
• Particularly regarding recent US labour data, made worse by a ninth consecutive decline in industrial activity confirmed in yesterday’s US Manufacturing PMI report, the case for rate cuts is growing, benefiting gold pricing
• Otherwise, the running for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, the likely installation of a more Trump-aligned candidate, and the associated expectations of rate cuts, are further boosting the current rally

Gold (XAU/USD): Dovish Fed tilt in ascendancy

I usually write about precious metal markets once a week or so, and seven days ago, I mentioned that something of a ‘dovish U-turn’ was currently underway, offering a new lease of life to recent gold upside.

Since then, not only has gold price continued to rise by over 2%, but the dovish narrative also appears to be expanding, owing to recent US economic data. This is no coincidence, of course - the two variables are inextricably linked.

As ever, let’s dive into some of the macroeconomic themes, but fair warning: this is going to be Federal Reserve-heavy.

Gold (XAU/USD) vs Silver (XAG/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 02/12/2025

Gold (XAU/USD): Fundamental Analysis 02/12/2025

Policymakers Daly and Waller further dovish Fed narrative:

It seems like yesterday that I was not only writing, but also appearing on the Market Insights Podcast, commenting on the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates in October, with the obvious question being if a third consecutive cut would follow in December.

While it would be fair to say that markets anticipate rate cuts to come, the speed at which their easing cycle would continue was, of course, the $1,000,000 question.

And by most accounts, the answer was a resounding yes, with many expecting a third 25 basis point cut would conclude 2025, leaving the target rate at 3.50-3.75%, its lowest level since late 2022.

Since then, however, a growing hawkish sentiment emerged from the Federal Reserve, with odds of a December rate cut falling to less than ~50%, in line with policymaker commentary.

At the time, Powell had previously cautioned markets on the assumption that cuts would continue thick and fast, and it seemed the markets were starting to believe that the December decision would be his chance to stand his ground, especially with a handsome beat to consensus for September’s NFP.

In hindsight, however, this was the peak of the hawkish narrative, with what’s happened since signifying one of the most contested periods of monetary policy stance that I can remember.

What started with Fed Williams, who made some dovish commentary speaking at a central bank conference in Chile, has continued with further dovish remarks from Daly and Waller, who have both cited the labour market as a larger priority than inflation, at least for now, with the latter generally trending lower.

CME FedWatch, 02/12/2025

The result, as seen above, is a return to the same level of conviction seen directly after the October interest rate decision, with markets predicting an 89.0% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December and rates remaining unchanged in January.

While markets have seemingly come full circle on monetary policy expectations, the notion of lower interest rates directly benefits gold, which explains, in no small part, recent upside.

US economic data to support rate cut notions

Positives

• The most recent NFP reading, and the last report before the Fed’s December decision, showed jobs added for September handsomely surpassed expectations, at +119,000 vs +50,000 expected

Negatives

• NFP numbers for both July and August were revised lower in the September report, with +33,000 less jobs added to the US economy than previously expected#
• NFP number for both July and August were historically low when compared to previous years
• Unemployment is rising, up 4.3% to 4.4% August to September

The astute amongst you will realise that the negatives far outweigh the positives.

While September’s result somewhat vindicated the previous hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, it appears that, over time, the markets have become less convinced about the US labour market, alongside key Fed policymakers.

While it would be a challenging task to use three-month-old data in a decision to maintain rates, the real kicker is that inflation appears to be under control at 2.1%, removing the primary justification for rates being so historically high in the first place.

As a personal aside, it’s interesting to see that, despite the most significant labour data remaining unchanged, markets have been able to carve two separate narratives, using the same data to support both a hawkish or dovish stance - myself included.

With that said, nothing in the market is black and white, although the Fed’s opinion is the one that matters.

As such, the current angle on the US labour market adds to expectations for lower rates in December, boosting gold pricing.

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 02/12/2025

XAU/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis:

Gold (XAU/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 02/12/2025

While the above paints a rosy picture for gold, it would be remiss not to mention that price has fallen somewhat in today’s trading, likely owing to technical profit-taking, albeit having recovered losses from earlier in the session.

I would be comfortable saying, however, that gold remains well supported both technically and fundamentally, with previous highs of $4,202 acting as the closest level of support.

Otherwise, and to the upside, our previous target of $4,240 has been met, with the price forming a pin bar to represent resistance.

To the upside, our next target is, of course, all-time highs; however, traders should be aware of the impending reduction in volatility due to the holiday season.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Resistance #1 - $4,240 - Previous support/resistance
• Price target/Resistance #2 - $4,381 - All-time highs
• Support #1 - $4,202 - Previous high
• Support #2 - $4,056 - 20-Period SMA
• Support #3 - $4,000 - Key psychological level
• Support #4 - $3,889 - Swing low

Our preceding analysis on Silver could not have been more wrong.

With the FOMC approaching and bouts of up-and-down action across all metals, what we thought to be a temporary top leading to a potential range was, in fact, just a retracement.

And that retracement was an opportunity not lost on Silver traders: a stark run during month-end trading took the precious metal to new record highs, grazing the $58.85 level.

The dovish repricing for the Fed's December 10 Meeting—main catalyst of the renewed "everything-rally" (or Debasement Trade) seen throughout stocks in the past week—was fuel for a sharp rally across the entire metals complex.

Metals performance since November 2025 – Source: TradingView

However, a distinct divergence has emerged in today's session.

Gold, Platinum, and Copper have all rejected their recent highs established on Friday, correcting lower as traders book profits.

It is a different story for Silver, which is showing remarkable relative strength, hanging less than 1% below its $58.85 record and running towards its retest.

Will it keep rallying or is the move finally over? Let's dive into the charts to see if this breakout has legs.

Silver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

Silver Daily Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The month-end action took Silver prices to a strong breakout after a month-and-half consolidation.

A double top did form throughout the two tests of the preceding $55.00 record, however, double top doesn't mean instant bear market.

On the other hand, it may have acted as a contrarian-fuel for higher prices as bearish positions accumulated before the month-end rally changed the plans.

Back to current trading, bulls have brought the metal right back into its $58.00 to $60 Resistance Zone, precedingly obtained with Fibonacci Extensions (see explanation here).

With the zone extending over a $2 range, there is space for trading but what traders should look is whether prices break and close above $60 on a daily session or if prices actually close below $58, indicating some rejection.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

Silver 4H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The price action is getting tricky as buyer strength stands strong and prices are consolidating at the highs (typically bullish) but a 4H divergence is appearing.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Fibonacci-Extension Resistance $58.00 to $60
• December 1 All-Time Highs $56.85
• $53.50 to $54 current ATH resistance
• Potential resistance $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)

Support Levels:

• $53.50 to $54 Previous ATH resistance now Pivot
• Mini-support $52.00 to $52.50
• $48.50 to $49.50 2011 High Support
• October FOMC bottom $46.00 to $47.00
• $45.55 October 28 lows

1H Chart

Silver 1H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The rangebound action is occuring much higher than last week – As higher momentum charts stand in overbought territory, short-term consolidation at the highs serve to reduce effect of overbought trading.

An ongoing move might take on the record highs reached yesterday – For intraday analysis look at the 1H 50-period Moving Average, frequently used by buyers in this uptrend.

Holding it provides entry points to join the rally, while breaking the Moving Averages gives signal of a short-term bearish reversal.

Safe Trades!

Cryptocurrencies are finally bouncing from their relative lows, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $90,000 level after bottoming near $80,500 on Friday, November 21.

Traders are scared, and for good reason: elevated valuations and an ecstatic mood in early autumn had led to extreme positioning, which consequently triggered a cascade of liquidations and stops.

The first major crack appeared shortly after Bitcoin reached its new record at $126,400 in mid-October, where a dark weekly closure led to a gigantic flash-crash.

After that, the recovery was swift but proved temporary, materializing into a consistent, progressive selloff that dragged on all the way to the final week of November.

Low volumes are now the norm in this scarred market, but with selling flows largely reducing, some bottoms may have finally formed.

The question remains: Are the recent lows dips to buy or traps to avoid?

Current Session in Cryptos – Green throughout but some mid-day profit-taking – December 2, 2025 (12:01). Source: FInviz

As mentioned in one of our previous crypto-selloff analyses, the answer depends entirely on your investment horizon and risk appetite.

Market sentiment is still weak, but the daily session is a strong one.

Ethereum is now hanging around $3,000 again, and Bitcoin is holding $90,000, recovering even after a terrible monthly open yesterday caused by MicroStrategy investor panic—likely fueled by fears over its collapsing premium and leverage sustainability.

Let's access a few intraday charts and levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana so you can decide whether this is an opportunity or not.

The Total Market Cap slowly recovers

Crypto Total Market Cap. December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Bitcoin 8H Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Bitcoin is still evolving within its descending channel but is bouncing from its lows, inducing some dip-buying recovery activity.

Closing above the higher bound of the Pivot Zone ($92,000) would point to a test of the Channel's higher bound around $98,000.

For a higher timeframe bull-momentum restart, a weekly close above $100,000 will be required.

Levels of interest for BTC trading:

Support Levels:

• $90,000 to 93,000 major support turned Pivot
• Current Weekly Lows $89,340
• $85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)
• $75,000 Key long-term support

Resistance Levels:

• $90,000 to 93,000 major support turned Pivot
• $98,000 to $100,000 Main Support, now Pivot (MA 50 at $100,000)
• $102,000 Bear Channel Highs
• Resistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000
• Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000

Ethereum 8H Chart

Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Ethereum still has trouble to close above the $3,000 mark but is forming some better looking price action:

The recent buying is occurring at the mid-line of the October descending channel, prompting more odds of a bullish breakout.

Similarly as Bitcoin however, a close above its $3,000 to $3,200 Pivot will be required to allow for a return to a bullish mid-term bias in ETH.

Levels of interest for ETH trading:

Support Levels:

• $2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (recent rebound)
• $2,620 Session and weekly Lows
• $2,100 June War support
• $1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support
• 2025 Lows $1,384

Resistance Levels:

• $3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)
• $3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs
• $3,800 September lows
• $4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone
• $4,950 Current new All-time highs

Solana 8H Chart

Solana (SOL) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The story repeats for Solana, but the harshly-rejected crypto is showing signs of life, breaking its past week's descending price action and testing the $140 level.

Track how it performs within its descending channel: The $160 to $170 resistance level will be the hurdle to breach to relaunch bullish prospects for the third largest crypto.

Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:

Support Levels:

• Main Support $125 to $130 (Recent bounce)
• $110 to $115 Support
• Weekly lows $123
• Support 3: $100 to $105

Resistance Levels:

• $140 to $150 Major Pivot (testing)
• Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170
• $180 to $190 Resistance
• Psychological level $200 to $205
• $253 Cycle highs

The Euro keeps firm tone on Tuesday after near-term recovery spiked to two-week high (1.1652) but subsequent quick pullback pointed to strong upside rejection (daily candle with long upper shadow).

Recovery stalled just under the base of daily Ichimoku cloud (1.1666) and left a bull-trap above 100DMA (1.1642) although near-term action still holds above broken Fibo 61.8% of 1.1656/1.1490 (1.1593), partially offsetting threats of reversal for now.

Near-term action remains bullishly aligned despite conflicting signals (55/100 bear-cross vs daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen bull-cross) though growing pressure from descending and thickening daily cloud, should be considered.

Bulls probe again through cracked Fibo level at 1.1617 (76.4%) with falling 55DMA (1.1628) and 100DMA (1.1642) guarding cloud base (1.1666) where headwinds could be expected again.

Violation of 1.1593 Fibo support to weaken near-term structure, with loss of 1.1570 support zone (broken Fibo 50% / converged daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen) to signal reversal.

Res: 1.1628; 1.1642; 1.1655; 1.1666
Sup: 1.1593; 1.1570; 1.1550; 1.1520

Stocks have begun December trading on a muted note, though far from the bearish trajectory that defined much of November.

December is historically a month where investors anticipate gains—a phenomenon known as the "December Effect" or the "Santa Claus Rally." This seasonal strength is typically driven by three core catalysts:

• Corporate Stock Buybacks: Companies rushing to complete buyback programs reduce the supply of outstanding shares, naturally pulling prices higher.
• Year-End Bonuses: As workers receive year-end payouts, fresh capital often flows into investment accounts, boosting demand.
• Psychological Momentum: A self-fulfilling prophecy where traders, anticipating a rise, buy in early, thereby driving the market higher.

However, in this beginning of December trading, a divergence is emerging.

US Equity Heatmap (10:21) – December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Despite Tech rebounding with resilient dip-buying, traditional sectors have struggled to maintain strong momentum – Look at how red the picture is in Consumer Cyclicals, Defensive, Utilities and Energy.

Some spirits are awakening as I am about to publish this piece

The culprit lies in the data: the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in lower yesterday at 48.2 (vs. 48.6 expected).

This miss is a stark sign that US industrial activity is still being hurt by the new Trump policies and angst relating to tariffs, with the sector hanging solidly in contraction territory (below 50) since March.

US Manufacturing PMI in 2025 – Source: TradingEconomics

While traders await more Santa Claus buying (which may arrive after the December 10 FOMC, if it comes) let's get ready by taking a close look at the Dow Jones through a multi-timeframe technical analysis.

Dow Jones (DJIA) Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Daily Chart

Dow Jones Daily Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

After a first red session for the Dow in December, bears are fighting to defend the 48,000 from trading.

The past month of correction has balanced momentum quite suddenly, taking the key 20 (47,090) and 50 Day (46,870) Moving Averages from upward sloping to their current flat level.

Still, any pullback lower could point to a test of these MAs which will have to act as support to relaunch more optimistic flows in Wall Street – After all, the long-run uptrend remains intact as we still evolve within the May Monthly upward channel.

RSI also supports the more balanced momentum outlook, hanging below 55 (45 to 55 shows neutral, directionless momentum).

Expect a range between 46,900 to 47,700 all the way to the December FOMC.

4H Chart and Technical levels

Dow Jones 4H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Some Christmas spirits are awakening with the current 4H Candle taking some traction and RSI momentum tilting higher.

Bulls will still have to breach the 47,746 highs from the Monthly open to invalidate the Rangebound conditions seen on the daily timeframe.

Dow Jones technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time Highs 48,458
• 48,000 Psychological Daily Resistance (+/- 200 points)
• Weekly high 47,747
• All-time High resistance between 48,400 to 48,720

Support Levels

• Session lows 47,200
• Higher timeframe momentum pivot around 47,000 (+/- 150)
• 45,500 to 45,800 Oct and Nov lows Support
• January 2025 All-time high 45,000 & Psychological zone (+/- 150)

1H Chart

Dow Jones 1H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The current 1H Candle is a very strong one, but faces a test of the December triangle formation upper bound at a confluence with the 45,600 hourly resistance.

Breaking this points to at least a test of the Weekly highs, a 15M candle close above the level would suffice to take the intraday momentum in hand.

Failing to do so would invite the bears to defend the short-timeframe triangle formation.