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Statistics Canada reported on Friday that real GDP grew by 2.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, which means:

→ a significant beat compared with analysts’ expectations of just 0.5% year-on-year growth;

→ Canada avoided a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction) following a 1.8% decline in the previous quarter.

The release triggered a strong rally in the Canadian dollar, as markets may have concluded that the Bank of Canada has less need to support the economy with additional liquidity, making the loonie more attractive to hold.

On the other hand, the unexpected GDP rise may partly be a statistical artefact linked to calculation methodology and the impact of tariffs introduced into global trade by the Trump administration. It is possible that GDP grew due to falling imports — meaning that even with strong headline numbers, the underlying economy may remain fragile.

Technical Analysis of USD/CAD

On Friday, the USD/CAD rate fell to its lowest level in a month.

The price then rebounded (as shown by the arrow) from the lower boundary of the channel that has been in place for most of the autumn. This bounce not only confirmed the relevance of the channel but also highlighted strong buying interest around 1.3940.

But should the bulls feel confident?

Note that:

→ throughout November, the price repeatedly slipped below 1.4000 — and each time failed to consolidate beneath this psychological level;

→ Friday’s bearish breakout looked exceptionally strong, with wide bearish candles closing near their lows, signalling clear dominance by sellers;

→ the 50% retracement of the A→B impulse sits near 1.4000.

Given these factors, it is entirely possible that 1.4000 will act as resistance in the short term, and that bears will attempt to resume the downward trend in USD/CAD.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 206.13; (P) 206.68; (R1) 207.20; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first with current steep decline. Further rally is expected as long as 204.26 support holds. Above 207.18 will resume larger rise to retest 208.09 high. Firm break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. However, decisive break of 204.26 will bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 202.70).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 199.04 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 180.51; (P) 181.02; (R1) 181.51; More...

EUR/JPY dips mildly today as consolidation from 181.98 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 178.80 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 181.98 will target 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90 next. However, firm break of 178.80 will argue that deeper correction is already underway towards 55 D EMA (now at 177.35).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 169.45) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8749; (P) 0.8761; (R1) 0.8774; More…

EUR/GBP recovered just ahead of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8451) and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will solidify the case of bearish reversal. Deeper fall should then be seen to 0.8631 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618. However, break of 0.8816 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 0.8863 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8600) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7677; (P) 1.7719; (R1) 1.7749; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Rebound from 1.7561 could have completed as a corrective move at 1.7976. Break of 1.7627 support will bring retest of 1.7561. On the upside, above 1.7794 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7976 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7426) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9306; (P) 0.9322; (R1) 0.9332; More....

EUR/CHF is extending consolidations below 0.9349 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, fall from 0.9660 could have completed at 0.9178, on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Above 0.9349 will resume the rise from 0.9178, and target 0.9452 resistance next. However, break of 0.9275 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9178 low instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9371). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3928; (P) 1.3990; (R1) 1.4041; More...

USD/CAD's fall accelerates lower today, and considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, break of 1.3920 support is the first sign of bearish reversal. Intraday bias is back on the downside, and decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.3538 to 1.4139 at 1.3909 will indicate that whole rise from 1.3538 has completed. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.3768 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4129 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6530; (P) 0.6545; (R1) 0.6568; More...

No change in AUD/USD's outlook. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.6579 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that whole fall from 0.6706 has completed as a three wave correction. Stronger rally should then be seen back to retest 0.6706. On the downside, however, below 0.6483 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.6413 key support.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1568; (P) 1.1587; (R1) 1.1619; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. With 1.1655 resistance intact, further decline is still expected. On the downside, below 1.1490 and 1.1467 will resume the whole decline from 1.1917 high. Next targets are 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. However, decisive break of 1.1655 will argue that fall from 1.1917 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.1727 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1345) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3204; (P) 1.3229; (R1) 1.3258; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3267 will resume the rebound from 1.3308. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.3265) should confirm that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a correction. Further rise should then be seen to 1.3725/3787 resistance zone. Nevertheless, break of 1.3123 minor support will revive near term bearishness, and bring retest of 1.3008.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3184) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2760) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.