Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9325; (P) 0.9377; (R1) 0.9410; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 0.9428 temporary top. Break of 0.9428 will resume the rebound form 0.9058. But strong resistance could be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 to limit upside. Break of 0.9289 resistance turned support will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside. however, decisive break of 0.9474 will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9730.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0146 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern. As long as 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 holds, another fall is in favor through 0.9058. However, sustained trading above 0.9474 will indicate that the medium term trend has reversed, and open up further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.9730 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1969; (P) 1.2017; (R1) 1.2112; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Another fall is in favor with 1.2146 resistance intact. Break of 1.1914 will resume the decline from 1.2446 for 1.1840 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.2146 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for further rebound to 1.2269 and above.

In the bigger picture,as long as 1.1840 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) should still continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. However, decisive break of 1.1840 will complete a double top pattern (1.2445, 1.2446) after rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.2251). Deeper decline should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2445 at 1.1645.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0555; (P) 1.0587; (R1) 1.0642; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0532 temporary low. The decline from 1.1032 might still extend lower, but strong support could be seen around 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Break of 1.0668 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0803 resistance and above. However, sustained break of 1.0463 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0482 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) should continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. However, sustained break of 1.0482 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0106, even as a corrective pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6710; (P) 0.6727; (R1) 0.6757; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current development argues that near term trend could be reversing. Deeper decline would be seen to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. On the upside, break of 0.6854 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall, or risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7179). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3531; (P) 1.3578; (R1) 1.3621; More....

A temporary to is formed at 1.3664 with current retreat. Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first. For now, further rally is in favor as long as 1.3474 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.3664 will resume the rise from 1.3261. Sustained trading above 1.3684 will confirm that corrective pattern from 1.3976 has completed, and bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, outlook stays bullish with 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) intact. Break of 1.3976 resistance will resume larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) to 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8778; (P) 0.8807; (R1) 0.8824; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral. Further decline remains in favor with 0.8927 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.7872 will resume the fall from 0.8977 to 0.8720 support. Firm break there will confirm completion of whole rebound from 0.8545, and turn near term outlook bearish for this support.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 55 day EMA (now at 0.8807). Sustained trading below there will argue that fall from 0.9267 is in progress. Such decline is seen as a leg inside long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Break of 0.8545 will pave the way back to 0.8201 (2022 low). On the other hand, strong rebound from current level will extend the rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5681; (P) 1.5724; (R1) 1.5788; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for the moment. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Decisive break of 1.5749 should pave the way to retest 1.5976 high. On the downside, below 1.5605 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, it's still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9912; (P) 0.9929; (R1) 0.9946; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays cautiously on the upside for the moment. Corrective pattern form 1.0095 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9844. Further rally should be seen to trend line resistance (now at 0.9977). Sustained break there will add to this bullish cas and bring retest of 1.0095 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.9844 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9832 support intact, rise from 0.9407 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0095 and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0021) will be a medium term bullish signal, and bring further rally to 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484). However, firm break of 0.9832 support will revive medium term bearishness and bring retest of 0.9407 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.18; (P) 163.76; (R1) 164.92; More...

GBP/JPY's rebound from 155.33 resumes by breaking 163.73 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Corrective fall from 172.11 should have completed at 155.33 already. Further rally should be seen to 169.26 resistance first, and then 172.11 high. For now, outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 161.18 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 172.11 medium term should have completed at 155.33. With 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 intact, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Market movers today

Today we get flash inflation prints from France and Spain for February, which will give us the first indication of euro area inflation this month. Consensus looks for unchanged headline inflation in both France and Spain at 7.0% y/y and 5.9%, respectively. Given the recent rise in yields, we would likely get a bigger market reaction if it surprises to the downside than to the upside.

In the US it is time for consumer confidence from the Conference Board for February. The most interesting item currently is the 'jobs plentiful versus hard to get' difference as it tends to give a good indication of the state of the labour market. Last month it improved in line with other job indicators and the number for February may give the first hint of whether the improvement was due to mild weather or not.

We also get US house prices which will be interesting as they have declined over the past five months, but at a slower pace in the past couple of months. Finally in the US, we also get the Richmond Fed business survey.

In the Nordics, Swedish GDP for Q4 is released (see more below).

Overnight the China PMI's for February are due.

The 60 second overview

Brexit: Yesterday UK PM Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP). The NIP tackles the post-Brexit issue of implementing an EU-border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which would violate the peace agreement from 1998, all the while still keeping the British inner market intact. While a date is not yet set for the UK Parliament to vote on the deal, it is at present expected to receive the necessary backing as Conservative MPs are faced with the alternative of another possible collapse of a Conservative government and a continued stalled political process in Northern Ireland. Markets took the deal as a positive sign and EUR/GBP moved notably lower during yesterday's session. We assess the further market impact to be limited on UK assets with the outlook of the tail risk of a EU-UK trade war to be eliminated.

Equities: Equities were higher yesterday with Europe leading and continuing its outperformance. Cyclicals in a strong beat of defensives with the defensive bracket of healthcare, utilities and consumer staples all lower in US yesterday. This type of rotation is what we expect to see on days like yesterday where the central bank reprising is taking a pause. This also fits with our strategy as we argue that the central bank reprising is to a large extent behind us now. In US yesterday, Dow +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.6% and Russell 2000 +0.3%. Asian market are mixed this morning with very small moves and the same goes for European and US futures.

FI: Markets added 4bp to the ECB peak policy rate putting pressure on the rest of the European curve. Markets are pointing to almost 4% deposit rate now. 10y German bunds rose 4bp to 2.58%, which is the highest level since 2011. At the same time, longer dated bonds underperformed, with 10s30s EUR swap steepening 3bp. Peripheral bonds performed against core rates. Focus today is on the French and Spanish inflation figures ahead of Thursday's euro area flash HICP inflation.

FX: Yesterday was rather quiet without any significant key drivers for market moves. USD broadly softened a bit and EUR/USD is hovering around 1.06. EUR/GBP moved lower on the back the Northern Ireland Protocol deal and is now trading below the 0.88 mark. EUR/SEK is around 11.02 and EUR/NOK around10.98.

Credit: Credit markets took part in the upbeat sentiment in risky assets yesterday where iTraxx Xover tightened 9bp and Main 2bp, with the two indices closing in 411bp and 79bp, respectively. Primary was relatively quiet, but a couple of issuers did take advantage of the positive backdrop, with e.g. Intesa Sanpaolo pricing a EUR2.25bn dual-tranche, green SNP.

Nordic macro

The regular Q4 GDP is released in Sweden this morning, after the preliminary GDP indicator printed -0.6% q/q. Monthly indicators have suggested consumption, net export and inventories were a drag on growth, while production and employment seem to have continued up. A very bad outcome may of course temper Riksbank a bit. January trade balance and PPI will also give us a first shot of how foreign trade might have affected Q1.