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The euro steadies ahead of the ECB interest decision today. On the daily chart, the pair is heading to last May’s high of 1.0800 after bouncing off 1.0300 on the 20-day moving average. Zooming into the hourly time frame, the euro has been climbing along a rising trend line, with a fresh support at the base (1.0530) of the latest momentum. The bullish mood may continue to carry the price action, but selling pressure could grow as the pair approaches the supply zone where short-term buyers might start to take profit.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.28; (P) 167.83; (R1) 168.94; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 169.26 will resume the rebound from 163.02 for retesting 172.11 high. On the downside, however, break of 164.02 support will resume the fall from 172.11 through 163.02 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 160.90) will argue that it's already correcting whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Nevertheless, before that, such up trend could still extend through 172.11 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.90; (P) 144.32; (R1) 145.17; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that correction from 148.38 could have completed at 140.75. Above 145.33 will target 146.12 resistance first. Firm break there will bring retest of 148.38 high. On the downside, however, break of 143.16 minor resistance will dampen this bullish case and turn intraday bias back to the downside for 140.75.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, 148.38 could be a medium term top already. Fall from there is probably correcting whole up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 55 week EMA (now at 138.08), or further to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8576; (P) 0.8596; (R1) 0.8617; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and further decline is expected with 0.8674 resistance intact. Break of 0.8545 will resume the fall from 0.9267, and target 61.8% projection of 0.9267 to 0.8647 from 0.8827 at 0.8444 next. On the upside, above 0.8674 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.8827 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8827 resistance will turn favor to the case that such decline is merely a correction in the up trend from 0.8201. That is, further rally would be seen at a later stage through 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5497; (P) 1.5550; (R1) 1.5619; More...

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5747 and intraday bias stays neutral. As long as 1.5271 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, firm break of 1.5747 will resume larger rally from 1.4281. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5704 from 1.5271 at 1.6150.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5271 support holds, rise from 1.4281 medium term bottom is expected to continue to 1.6434 key resistance next. However, firm break of 1.5271 will argue that such rebound has completed, and keep medium term outlook neutral at best. But in this case, more range trading should be seen above 1.4281 low first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9840; (P) 0.9865; (R1) 0.9899; More....

Range trading continues in EUR/CHF and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 0.9953 resistance will resume larger rally from 0.9407 to 1.0072 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.9720 will extend the decline from 0.9953 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8407 to 0.9953 at 0.9616.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9407 medium term bottom are currently seen as a corrective pattern, rather than trend reversal. Down trend resumption through 0.9407 is mildly favored at a later stage. This will remain the favored case now, as long 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3505; (P) 1.3559; (R1) 1.3598; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. The favored case is still that correction from 1.3976 has completed at 1.3224. Above 1.3699 will resume the rebound from there to 1.3807 resistance, and then retesting 1.3976 high. However, break of 1.3383 support will dampen this case and bring retest of 1.3224 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6823; (P) 0.6852; (R1) 0.6895; More...

AUD/USD is losing some upside momentum again but there is no clear sign of topping. Current rally would still target 61.8% projection of 0.6271 to 0.6796 from 0.6641 at 0.6965. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.7166 next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6728 support will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 0.6641 support and below.

In the bigger picture, it's still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend rejection. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6912) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.66; (P) 135.32; (R1) 136.13; More...

USD/JPY is losing downside momentum again and intraday bias is turned neutral. On the downside, firm break of 133.61 support and 133.07 medium term fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 151.93. On the upside, however, break of 137.95 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 142.24 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.71) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9207; (P) 0.9253; (R1) 0.9290; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the downside, as fall from 1.0146 is in progress for is 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9355 from 0.9545 at 0.9056. However, break of 0.9378 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 0.9545 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9545 resistance holds.