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Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO revised down inflation forecasts for 2022 and 2023. For 2022, CPI is projected to be at 2.9% (comparing with September forecast of 3.0%). 2023 CPI is estimated to be 2.2%, (down from 2.3%.

2022 GDP growth forecast was left unchanged at 2.0%. 2023 GDP growth forecast was downgraded slightly from 1.1% to 1.0%. SECO said, "this would point to sluggish growth for the Swiss economy, but not a severe recession".

SECO added, "Europe's energy situation is projected to gradually normalize after a tense 2023/24 winter. At the same time, inflation rates will likely ease worldwide and the global economy should gradually gain momentum". That would trigger a recovery in Switzerland, with 1.6% GDP growth in 2024, and inflation back below average at 1.5%.

Full release here.

EURJPY is surging above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs) after the strong rebound off the 140.90 support level and the long-term ascending trend line. The pair is currently penetrating the near-term downtrend line to the upside, suggesting that the broader bullish outlook will continue again.

The technical oscillators are mirroring this upside move as the RSI is pointing north above the neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD is surpassing its trigger line, but it is still beneath the zero level.

To the upside, emanating pressure over the last couple of months has denied upside moves. If buyers manage to remain above the falling trend line, a revisit of the 147.10 resistance level could unfold. Overcoming these constrictions could see resistance develop at the eight-year high of 148.40. Another leg up could tackle the peak from December 2014 at 149.75.

Otherwise, if sellers drive the pair below short-term diagonal line again, then the 50- and the 20-day SMAs at 144.80 and 144.17 could interrupt the pair ahead of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 124.40 to 148.40 at 142.72. In the event selling interest persists, the key support region of 140.90 barrier could halt the decline before battling with the 200-day SMA at 139.80. Should it fail to do so, the 38.2% Fibo of 139.20 could challenge the bears, shifting the outlook to negative.

Summarizing, the long-term picture remains positive, while the short-term view is currently switching to bullish as well.

In the long term, GBPJPY seems to be forming a global corrective trend that takes the form of a double zigzag. On the 1H timeframe, the final part of this trend is visible - the actionary wave y of the cycle degree.

It seems that the wave y takes the form of a triple zigzag of the primary degree, which may soon be fully completed. After the end of the second intervening wave, which took the form of a triple combination, the price began to move up.

Most likely, the wave takes the form of a triple zigzag, in which four parts look finished. In the near future, growth is expected within the final intermediate wave (Z). The completion of the entire wave is possible near 176.04. At that level, wave will be at 76.4% of wave.

In an alternative scenario, the market builds not a double, but a triple zigzag w-x-y-x-z of the cycle degree. And now its fourth part is being formed, that is, the intervening wave x, which may take the form of a triple zigzag.

It is assumed that the first four parts of the primary correction pattern are fully completed.

Perhaps in the near future, the market will fall in the last wave to 148.10. At that level, cycle wave x will be at 50% along the Fibonacci lines of actionary wave y.

An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart.

The S&P 500 consolidates as investors await US inflation data later today. After turning south at 4100 near September’s high, the index has struggled to find follow-up bids. A fall through the base of the previous bullish momentum prompted buyers to exit and reassess the mixed mood. The latest rebound to the psychological level of 4000 is an important test and a breakout would open the path to the recent peak at 4100. 3910 is a key level to keep the index afloat as its breach could trigger a liquidation towards 3820.

The pound strengthened after the UK’s GDP beat expectations in October. The pair has failed to build a support base after it dropped below the major bottom (0.8570) that has been valid since last September. The RSI’s oversold condition led to a limited bounce but might not be enough to save the day as more traders may have switched to the short side. Only a close above 0.8640 would keep the euro bulls in play. Otherwise, a fall below 0.8560 would attract momentum sellers and send the exchange rate to 0.8500.

The Canadian dollar struggles over plunging oil prices amid demand concerns. On the daily chart, the outlook remains positive and crossing moving averages may suggest a potential acceleration to the upside. The pair hit resistance at the former support at 1.3700 and led some intraday traders to take profit. A bullish breakout would extend gains to November’s high of 1.3800, which could foreshadow a recovery to the previous peak of 1.3970. 1.3560 is the first support in case of prolonged hesitation.

Stock markets are tentatively higher in Asia while Europe and the US are poised for a similarly modest start to trade in what is the start of a hectic 72 hours in the markets.

For so many weeks now, the December Fed decision has dominated the minds of traders, while sentiment in the markets has been dictated by how small changes in various data points influence the outcome of the meeting.

When a meeting or event generates this much hype, it can often disappoint and be something of an anticlimax but I'm not sure that will be the case this time. It's not so much the decision itself but what accompanies it that will set the stage for next year.

For so long the question has been will the Fed hike into a recession. In that time it's remained convinced that a soft landing can be achieved and the resilience of the economic data has supported that but unfortunately, the same resilience has also supported the case for more hikes and a higher terminal rate.

Last month's CPI release gave investors real hope that in much the same way that inflation's acceleration higher this year blew expectations out of the water, the path lower may also not be as gradual as feared. Unfortunately, some of the data since then hasn't been so favourable - most notably the wages component of the jobs report - so a lot is now hanging on today's release. Another number below forecasts of around 7.3%, year on year, could get the excitement flowing once more.

Jobs data keeps pressure on BoE

The pound is relatively steady after the release of the UK jobs data that was in line with market expectations. Unemployment rose marginally to 3.7% while wages rose by 6.1%. While the data does indicate some additional slack in the labour market, the wages number - despite falling well short of inflation - will be of concern to the BoE and ensure its foot remains firmly on the brake in the short term.

Bouncing back

Oil prices are advancing again on Tuesday, with Brent approaching $80 a barrel and WTI nearing $75. This comes amid further relaxations of Covid curbs in China, the threat of lower Russian output in response to the G7 price cap, an outage on the keystone pipeline in the US, and the promise of US purchases around $70.

That's a lot of supportive factors for the price even in what appears to be an environment tilted towards oversupply. Suddenly there appears more upside risk than downside which could keep prices slipping below $70 for the foreseeable future.

Awaiting CPI data

Gold remains in consolidation ahead of the CPI data. Last month's release helped drive gold prices higher on the back of a promising Fed statement and jobs report. Of course, recent data hasn't been quite so bullish for the yellow metal but a weaker inflation reading today could get it back on track ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision. The key level to the upside remains $1,810, with gold seeing some support around $1,780.

Steady despite FTX developments and Binance concerns

Bitcoin continues to trade around $17,000, undeterred by reports of Sam Bankman-Fried's arrest and possible charges for money laundering against Binance. Withdrawals on the platform highlight the uncertainty and shattered confidence in the space, a desperation not to be caught up in another FTX event. Even when the situation looks very different. But that's what fear does, especially in a situation where confidence has been so severely damaged, as it has in recent weeks.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3608; (P) 1.3645; (R1) 1.3672; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral and consolidation from 1.3699 could extend further. The favored case is still that correction from 1.3976 has completed at 1.3224. Above 1.3699 will resume the rebound from there to 1.3807 resistance, and then retesting 1.3976 high. However, break of 1.3383 support will dampen this case and bring retest of 1.3224 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6718; (P) 0.6758; (R1) 0.6788; More...

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.6641 should confirm rejection by 0.6871 resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.6521 resistance turned support. However, sustained break of 0.6871 will extend the rise from 0.6169 to 55 week EMA at 0.6912.

In the bigger picture, it's still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend rejection. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6912) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0503; (P) 1.0542; (R1) 1.0577; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.0442 support will indicate rejection by 1.0609 fibonacci level. Bias will be back on the downside for 1.0222 support and below. However, firm break of 1.0594/0609 resistance zone will carry larger bullish implication. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.9729 to 1.0481 from 1.0222 at 1.0687, and then 100% projection at 1.0974.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.