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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5567; (P) 1.5658; (R1) 1.5718; More...

Intraday bias sin EUR/AUD is turned neutral first as it quickly lost momentum after breaching 1.5704. But for now, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5271 support holds, in case of retreat. Break of 1.5747 will resume larger rally to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5704 from 1.5271 at 1.6150.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.5271 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9851; (P) 0.9873; (R1) 0.9908; More....

EUR/CHF's consolidation form 0.9953 is extending and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.9953 resistance will resume larger rally from 0.9407 to 1.0072 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.9720 will extend the decline from 0.9953 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8407 to 0.9953 at 0.9616.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 0.9970 support turned resistance retains medium term bearishness. That is, while 0.9407 is a medium term bottom, price actions from there would develope into a corrective pattern rather than a reversal. Down trend resumption through 0.9407 is mildly favored at a later stage. This will remain the favored case now, as long 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3595; (P) 1.3648; (R1) 1.3705; More....

USD/CAD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rally is still in favor. Correction from 1.3976 could have completed with three waves down to 1.3224. Further rise should be seen to 1.3807 resistance first, and then 1.3976. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3383 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6682; (P) 0.6712; (R1) 0.6755; More...

AUD/USD remains bounded in range below 0.6850 and intraday bias stays neutral first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.6641 support should indicate short term topping, following rejection by 0.6871 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.6521 resistance turned support first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it's too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6922) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. However, rejection by 0.6781 or 55 week EMA, followed by 0.6521 resistance turned support and retain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.93; (P) 136.89; (R1) 137.57; More...

With 135.95 minor support intact, USD/JPY's rise from 133.61 short term bottom is in progress, and should target 55 day EMA (now at 141.20). However, break of 135.95 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 133.61 low instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It's too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9369; (P) 0.9403; (R1) 0.9443; More...

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9545 will indicate short term bottoming at 0.9325. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.9642). On the downside, below 0.9325 will resume the near term decline and target 0.9287 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9690) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0449; (P) 1.0500; (R1) 1.0556; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.0427 minor support will indicate short term topping at 1.0594, after rejection by 1.0609 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.0222 support and possibly below. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0594 will resume larger rally from 0.9534.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0557) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. However, rejection by 1.0609 will retain medium term bearishness for down trend resumption at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2133; (P) 1.2184; (R1) 1.2261; More...

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2343 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise remains mildly in favor as long as 1.1898 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2343 will resume the rally from 1.0351 and target 1.2759 medium term fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.1898 support will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.4248.

Trading in the currency markets continues to be rather subdued. Canadian Dollar remains the weakest together Yen. The dovish rate hike by BoC overnight didn't trigger more selloff, though. Yen is having little reaction to falling US and European benchmark yields. Dollar and Euro are the firmer ones but stay inside familiar range. Aussie and Kiwi are soft but, again, there is no follow through selling.

Technically, EUR/CAD's rally from 1.2867 is making progress, a rare exception in the dull market. As long as 1.4124 support holds, further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.2867 to 1.3694 from 1.3270 at 1.4608. However, break of 1.4124 support should indicate short term topping and bring consolidations first.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.53%. Hong Kong HSI is up 2.68%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.10%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.39%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0026 at 0.252. Overnight, DOW closed flat, S&P 500 dropped -0.19%. NASDAQ dropped -0.51%. 10-year yield dropped -0.105 to 3.408.

Australia trade surplus little change at AUD 12.22B in Oct

Australia exports of goods and services dropped -0.9% mom to AUD 60.01B in October. Imports dropped -0.7% mom to AUD 47.85B. Trade surplus narrowed slightly from AUD 12.44B to AUD 12.22B, slightly above expectation of AUD 12.10B.

Looking at some details, the decline in exports was driven mainly by AUD -0.6B fall in gold while imports decline was driven by AUD -0.5B fall in energy. Fuel exports, dominated by LNG, rose AUD 0.3B to AUD 11.2B, and hit a new record high. Rural goods exports rose AUD 0.1B to AUD 7.2B, also a record high.

Gold fails 1800 handle for now

Gold's rally halted after hitting 1809.80 earlier in the week, but failed to sustain above 1800 handle and turned into consolidations. Dollar's recovery is capping Gold's strength. Traders in the currency markets are generally cautious ahead of next week's FOMC rate decision, and more importantly, the new dot plot.

Technically, Gold is feeling some support from 4 hour 55 EMA, which is a positive sign. Break of 1809.80 will resume the rise from 1616.51 to 61.8% projection of 1616.51 to 1786.83 from 1728.48 at 1833.73. However, sustained trading below 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1772.44) will at least bring deeper fall back to 1728.48 support for a test.

Looking ahead

The economic calendar is rather light today with US jobless claims as the main feature.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2133; (P) 1.2184; (R1) 1.2261; More...

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2343 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise remains mildly in favor as long as 1.1898 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2343 will resume the rally from 1.0351 and target 1.2759 medium term fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.1898 support will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.4248.

Economic Indicators Update

Gold's rally halted after hitting 1809.80 earlier in the week, but failed to sustain above 1800 handle and turned into consolidations. Dollar's recovery is capping Gold's strength. Traders in the currency markets are generally cautious ahead of next week's FOMC rate decision, and more importantly, the new dot plot.

Technically, Gold is feeling some support from 4 hour 55 EMA, which is a positive sign. Break of 1809.80 will resume the rise from 1616.51 to 61.8% projection of 1616.51 to 1786.83 from 1728.48 at 1833.73. However, sustained trading below 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1772.44) will at least bring deeper fall back to 1728.48 support for a test.