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For over a month now, gold prices have been trending higher, gaining over 10% since the start of November. Naturally this poses the question of whether a new peak is coming, or will the precious metal keep moving up through next year. The prospect of inflation in the early part of 2023 might keep investors on the lookout for a place to store wealth. But there are things that central banks can do that might disrupt trends.

In order to guess whether gold prices will continue their current trend, it's important to get a good idea of why they have performed like this so far. While a diverse range of factors can be pointed to, the depreciation of the dollar has the largest contribution. In fact, since the start of November, the dollar has lost 8.5% against its basket of currencies. Suggesting that if we want to know whether the current trend in gold will continue, we have to see if the dollar is likely to keep weakening while going into the end of the year.

 What's going on?

The dollar has been losing ground chiefly because investors are coming to believe that the Fed's extraordinary tightening is coming to an end. The dollar has been more attractive than other currencies over the past year, because the Fed was the most aggressive of the central banks in trying to curb inflation. Meaning that holding debt in dollars was more profitable than in other currencies.

But, with the Fed starting to "pivot" away from an aggressive stance, other central banks are expected to slowly catch up. The dollar's main advantage is expected to dwindle over the coming months. Then there is the question of what's going to happen in the first half of next year, when most economists believe the US will fall into a recession. And not one of those technically, debate on the definition, ones like the start of this year. Will the Fed hold firm with higher interest rates through the recession in order to bring inflation down? Or will they cave to political pressure and start easing to prop up the economy?

The China factor

Adding to the weakness of the dollar is a resurgence in risk appetite, thanks to China apparently moving away from its strict zero-covid policy to a more economically friendly zero-covid policy. This could help global outlook as China could return to buying more raw materials, and supply chains could be eased in the coming months. Increased productivity in the world's industrial base along with a weaker yuan could help reduce inflation, and ease some of the worries about a recession.

The markets are pricing in a 50bps hike by the Fed in December, a reduction of the pace recently. That would put it on track for a 25bps hike at the end of January. Then there is the option of one more hike sometime in the first half of the year, leaving the terminal rate at no more than 5.0%. So, if the Fed delivers next week, and there is a year-end rally in the markets, gold could continue to trend higher in the short term. But if the Fed were to double down on the hiking rhetoric, particularly in light of the stellar jobs numbers from Friday, the dollar might find some footing. And gold could falter a bit.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.33; (P) 134.65; (R1) 135.67; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first on loss of downside momentum. Break of 137.66 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 142.24 resistance first. However, before, another decline could still be seen to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level or further to 55 week EMA.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It's too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9317; (P) 0.9378; (R1) 0.9430; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the downside first and outlook is unchanged. Current fall from 1.0146 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9355 from 0.9545 at 0.9056. On the upside, however, break of 0.9545 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9690) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2187; (P) 1.2243; (R1) 1.2352; More...

GBP/USD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rally is expected as long as 1.1898 support holds. Rise from 1.0351 should target 1.2759 medium term fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.1898 support will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.4248.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0466; (P) 1.0505; (R1) 1.0583; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside for the moment with focus on 1.0609 fibonacci level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implication and target next level at 1.1273. However, break of 1.0427 minor support will indicate rejection by 1.1273, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0222 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0566) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. However, rejection by 1.0609 will retain medium term bearishness for down trend resumption at a later stage.

Euro rises broadly today as supported by improvement in investor sentiment, but Sterling and Swiss Franc are lagging behind. Canadian Dollar also follows oil price high, as China appears to be moving further towards reopening. Australian Dollar is also firm. But Yen and Dollar are on the weaker side on positive market sentiment.

Technically, while Euro does strengthen, the momentum is not too convincing yet. For now, EUR/CHF's rise from 0.9720 still looks more like a corrective move, as the second leg of the pattern from 0.9953. The cross will need to take out 0.9953 resistance decisively to confirm the underlying bullishness in Euro.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.30%. DAX is down -0.51%. CAC is down -0.57%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.001 at 1.853. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.15%. Hong Kong HSI rose 4.51%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.76%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.26%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0064 to 0.258.

ECB Makhlouf: Premature to be talking about end-point for policy rates

ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said, "To continue on our path to bring inflation back to our 2% target, I see a 50 basis-point increase in interest rates as the minimum needed at our December meeting."

"We have to be open to policy rates moving into restrictive territory for a period," the Irish central-bank chief said. "It is premature to be talking about the end-point for policy rates amid the prevailing levels of uncertainty."

"The justification for the expansion of the balance sheet – too low inflation and the risk of deflation – has ended, and it is time to look at reducing its size," he said.

Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to -21, recession ends before it's begun

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose from -30.9 to -21.0 in December, highest since June. Current Situation Index rose from -29.5 to -20.0. Expectations Index rose from -32.3 to -22.0, highest since March.

Sentix said: "The latest sentix economic data improve again and surprisingly significantly. Investors are spreading hope that thanks to mild winter weather, sufficient gas in storage and a possible peak in inflation data, the economic downturn has also passed its zenith.

"Internationally, there are also more moderate tones from the US Federal Reserve, which is holding out the prospect of "only" 50 basis points of interest rate increases in December. And in China, the protests finally seem to point to an end to the restrictive Corona measures.

"So will the recession end before it has really begun?"

Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 47.8, downturn remains only modest

Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 48.5 in November, down from October's 48.6. That's also a 21-month low. PMI Composite was finalized at 47.8, up from prior month's 47.3. Looking at some member countries, Ireland PMI Composite France dropped to 48.8 and 48.7 respectively, both 21-month low. Germany (46.3), Italy (48.9), and Spain (49.6) were at 3-month high.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: "A fifth consecutive monthly falling output signalled by the PMI adds to the likelihood that the eurozone is sliding into recession. However, at present the downturn remains only modest, with an easing in the overall rate of contraction in November means so far the region looks set to see GDP contract by a mere 0.2%."

Eurozone retail sales dropped -1.8% mom in Oct, EU down -1.7% mom

Eurozone retail sales volume dropped -1.8% mom in October, worse than expectation of -1.6% mom. The volume of retail trade decreased by -2.1% for non-food products and by -1.5% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it grew by 0.3% for automotive fuels.

EU retail sales volume dropped -1.7% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Austria (-4.6%), Croatia (-4.0%) and Belgium (-3.3%). Increases were observed in Luxembourg (+2.6%), Cyprus, Malta and Portugal (all +0.5%) and Spain (+0.4%).

UK PMI services finalized at 48.8, economic contraction rate held steady

UK PMI services was finalized at 48.8 in November, unchanged from October's reading, lowest since January 2021, and second second consecutive month of contraction. PMI Composite was finalized at 48.2, unchanged from prior month, and the fourth successive month of contraction.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "A further economic contraction signalled by the PMI surveys hints at a growing recession risk for the UK. A change of government and its new economic policies may have helped arrested some of the financial market volatility after September's 'mini-budget' but the economic picture remains stubbornly unchanged. "

The overall rate of economic contraction has held steady compared to October, indicative of GDP falling at a quarterly rate of 0.4%. As such, this is the toughest spell the UK economy has faced since the global financial crisis excluding only the height of the pandemic.

China Caixin PMI services dropped to 46.7, third month of contraction

China Caixin PMI Services dropped from 48.4 to 46.7 in November, below expectation of 48.8. PMI Composite dropped from 48.3 to 47.0, signalling a third successive monthly contraction in business activity. The rate of decline was the strongest since May.

Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: "Manufacturing and services activity contracted in varying degrees, with the services sector hit harder by Covid outbreaks.... The prolonged pandemic has battered the economy. While the third wave has led to a softened slowdown on both supply and demand than the previous ones, there has been significant pain in the job market."

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0466; (P) 1.0505; (R1) 1.0583; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside for the moment with focus on 1.0609 fibonacci level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implication and target next level at 1.1273. However, break of 1.0427 minor support will indicate rejection by 1.1273, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0222 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0566) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. However, rejection by 1.0609 will retain medium term bearishness for down trend resumption at a later stage.

Economic Indicators Update

Gold sustained a muted tone during Monday’s early European trading hours, consolidating its latest spike around the August resistance territory and the 1,800 level despite inching to a new high of 1,809.

Overbought signals become more evident as the RSI weakens below 70, while the stochastics look for a bearish crossover above 80. Yet, sellers may not take action, unless the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2,070–1,614 downleg at 1,788, which was a key barrier to downside movements during previous months, proves fragile. Should the price drop below that base, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) may immediately add a strong footing around 1,760. Failure to pivot here could clear the way towards the key 1,722–1,700 zone, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci and the 50-day SMA. Note that the key descending constraining line drawn from the 2,079 record high is positioned in the same area.

In the event of the bulls extending the recovery above the 200-day SMA, the 50% Fibonacci of 1,842 could be the next destination. Breaching that wall, the rally may speed up towards June’s resistance of 1,878, while higher, the focus will turn to the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1,925.

All in all, gold traders are currently displaying some hesitancy as the price is struggling to overcome the August bar of 1,800. A successful move above that barricade could bolster buying appetite.

What could have been a really positive week for equity markets is off to a much more nervy start, with stocks in Europe treading water and US futures slightly lower.

The inflation report on Friday was red hot once more, extinguishing any hope that investors could hop aboard the Fed pivot train and ride stock markets higher into year-end. Perhaps it's not quite so dramatic but it was a real setback, something we should be used to by now.

The wages component was the killer blow. That was not just a beat, it obliterated expectations and came in double the forecasted number. It may be a blip, but it's a huge one and it will almost certainly take more than one much cooler report in January to comfort those that still fear inflation becoming entrenched.

That's ultimately where we're now up to in the inflation story. Many accept that base effects and lower energy prices will drive the headline inflation figure much lower next year, among other things, while a slower economy - maybe recession - will eventually hit demand and contribute to the decline. But what the Fed fears now is fighting entrenched inflation and these wage numbers won't make for comfortable reading.

An economic victory for China amid gloomy PMIs

Chinese stocks were the clear outperformer overnight as authorities continued to work towards a softening of the country's zero-Covid stance with the end goal seemingly being the end of it altogether. It's thought that it will be downgraded to category B management as early as next month with officials claiming it's less threatening than previous strains, a huge move away from the rhetoric and approach of the last few years.

This came as the Caixin services PMI slipped to 46.7, much lower than anticipated. That said, I'm not sure anyone will be shocked given the record Covid surge, but the more targeted - albeit seemingly confused - approach being taken has ensured less disruption, as evidenced by how much better the PMI has performed compared with earlier this year.

And it's not just China that's seeing surveys underperforming and, in many cases, putting in sub-50 readings. Europe is either already in recession or heading for it and the surveys highlight just how pessimistic firms are despite the winter getting off to a warmer start.

Japan is among the few recording a growth reading, although having slipped from 53.2 in October to 50.3 last month, you have to wonder for how long. Input prices are punishing firms, with some now raising prices in order to pass those higher costs on. That won't help activity or convince the BoJ to declare victory, as higher energy and food costs are also hitting domestic demand. The one major outlier is India where the services PMI accelerated higher to 56.4 buoyed by domestic and external demand. An impressive feat in this global environment.

Oil higher as China looks to ease Covid restrictions

Oil prices are higher on Monday, rallying 2%, after the G7 imposed a $60 price cap on Russian oil and OPEC+ announced no new output cuts. Both bring a degree of uncertainty, with the details of the cap and the impact on Russian sales still unclear.

From the OPEC+ perspective, it can't be easy to make reliable forecasts against that backdrop and the constantly evolving Covid situation in China, which currently looks far more promising from a demand perspective. The decision to leave output unchanged was probably the right one for now and there's nothing to stop the group from coming together again before the next scheduled meeting should the situation warrant it.

A major setback

It goes without saying that the jobs report on Friday was a big setback for gold as it leaves huge uncertainty around where the terminal rate will land. Of course, we should be used to bumps in the road by now, having experienced many already this year. There's no reason why the path back to 2% should be any smoother.

But the yellow metal did recover those jobs report losses and even hit a new four-month high today. Perhaps the big difference now is momentum. It's run into strong resistance around those August highs around $1,810 and simply doesn't have the momentum it would have had the report been cooler. We're now more than four weeks into the recovery rally in gold and a corrective move of some kind may be on the cards.

Silence is bliss

Bitcoin continues to enjoy a mild relief rally and has even moved above $17,000 to trade at its highest level in almost a month. It's probably too early to celebrate yet though as these are very cautious gains that could be quickly and easily wiped out by more negative headlines related to FTX. Silence is currently bliss for the crypto community.

The Euro is trading near five-month high on Monday and cracked pivotal Fibo barrier at 1.0578 (38.2% of 1.2266/0.6535 downtrend), but quick pullback indicates that bulls face headwinds.

Last Friday’s Hanging Man candle was initial warning that bulls may run out of steam, with overbought daily studies and weakening bullish momentum, adding to the notion.

Failure to register a daily close above 1.0578 barrier, would contribute to negative signals, though more evidence would be needed to verify.

Rising 10DMA offers solid support at 1.0420 and break here would generate initial signal of correction and expose more significant supports at 1.0363 (200DMA) and 1.0290 (Nov 30 trough), violation of which would weaken near-term structure, as falling thick weekly cloud also weighs.

Near-term bias is expected to remain with bulls while the action holds above 10DMA and point to consolidation before bulls resume, however, only sustained break of 1.0578 Fibo barrier would signal that bulls are on track to extend larger rally.

Res: 1.0578; 1.0608; 1.0700; 1.0786.
Sup: 1.0519; 1.0420; 1.0363; 1.0290.

The Australian dollar has posted slight gains at the start of the trading week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6801, up 0.10%.

RBA likely to deliver 25-bp hike

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to hike by 25 bp for a third straight time. This would bring the cash rate to 3.10%. There is a chance that the RBA could take a pause and not raise rates, although the case for a modest 25 bp seems stronger. Inflation remains the RBA’s number one priority, and the Bank’s steep rate-tightening cycle is showing results, with CPI falling to 6.9% in October, down from 7.4% a month earlier. Still, it is premature to say that inflation has definitely peaked, and consumer inflation expectations measures have been mixed.

The RBA’s rate policy has been a bumpy road, which led to Governor Lowe to issue an apology about rate policy last week. Lowe said that it was regrettable that people listened to the RBA saying it wouldn’t raise rates before 2024 but then delivered seven oversized rate hikes in 2022. Many Australians took out mortgages based on the RBA assurance but are now getting squeezed by huge mortgage payments.

The week ended with the US employment report, which was stronger than expected. The economy created 263,000 jobs in November, slightly lower than the October reading of 284,000 and stronger than the consensus of 200,000. Wage growth also outperformed, as the reading of 5.1% y/y was up from 4.9% and beat the forecast of 4.6%. The labor market continues to show a surprising resiliency and the increase in wage growth will drive inflationary pressure. The solid employment numbers haven’t changed the likelihood of a 50-bp hike in December (80% according to CME FedWatch), but should serve as a reminder to the markets that the Fed’s tightening cycle could continue into 2023.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6878 and 0.6962
• There is support at 0.6760 and 0.6676