Sample Category Title

Gold prices are moving lower after several failed attempts to jump above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs). The price remains below the long-term descending trend line and the technical oscillators currently confirm the bearish structure. The MACD oscillator is moving sideways below the zero level, while the RSI is flattening in the negative region.

To the downside, immediate support could come from the two-and-half-year low of 1,615, which was tested two times over the last month. Moving lower, the troughs of March 2020 at 1,570 could be revisited ahead of the 1,450 bottom.

Otherwise, if buyers push above the moving averages, initial resistance could come from the 1,687 barrier, which overlaps with the downtrend line. Climbing higher, the 1,730 resistance could interrupt the test of a key region from the 200-day SMA and the 1,808 hurdle.

Summarizing, the very short-term bias has turned neutral but if the price shifts above the 1,687 barrier, the picture may turn positive.

The Nasdaq recouped some losses in hope of a turnaround in the Fed’s tightening cycle. Bad news is good news these days. Signs of a slowdown in the world's largest economy would cool expectations of sustained rate hikes by the central bank. A dovish hike from the Bank of Canada may feed hopes that the Fed could be nearing the pivot point. A retreat in Treasury yields could divert more liquidity into riskier assets. Should investors’ risk mood make its way back, growth-sensitive tech names would be the first beneficiaries. Until then, 12000 is a key hurdle and caution could drive the index to the psychological level of 10000.

Brent crude bounces higher as demand remains strong despite economic worries. There is definitely some optimism in the air. Recession concerns have abated with traders hoping for a less aggressive stance from the Fed amid weaker US data. Record US crude exports indicate that global demand has kept up. Meanwhile, Western allies’ price cap on Russian oil may have limited impact as it would be designed to keep the supply flowing. However, feeble growth in China, the world's biggest energy consumer, could be a major headwind in the medium-term. The price is consolidating between 84.00 and 105.00.

The Australian dollar slips as the RBA may continue to reduce the pace of monetary normalisation. The recent bounce has more to do with a pullback in the US dollar rather than a shift in sentiment. The RBA is expected to lift its feet off the pedal with another 25 basis points hike this week. However, as inflation reaches a 32-year high, policymakers are under pressure to stay assertive. The upside risk would be a 50bp hike. Still, the contrast with the US Fed, which might deliver a fourth consecutive 75 bp rate hike in November, could keep the aussie subdued and under 0.6530. A fall below 0.6200 would lead to 0.6000.

The pound bounces as the new premiership instils a sense of stability. Former Chancellor Sunak becomes Britain’s Prime Minister as Sterling recovers from the budget disaster. The new finance-relevant leadership gives investors hopes of better plans to tackle the mounting economic crisis. Volatility is likely to rise leading up to the new budget in mid-November. As for now, all eyes are on the BoE to deliver a 75bp hike which may add further stress to the economy. How far the rally may go would depend on how fiscal and monetary policies play out in these turbulent times. 1.1700 is the first resistance and 12000 a fresh support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6375; (P) 0.6427; (R1) 0.6466; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6535 resistance, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6558), will raise the chance of medium term bottoming, and target 0.6680 support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6371 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6169 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3544; (P) 1.3590; (R1) 1.3653; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and further rise is still expected with 1.3501 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 1.3976 will target 200% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.4285. However, firm break of 1.3501 will bring deeper correction to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3439) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Based on current impulsive momentum, it could be resuming long term up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Whether it is or it isn't, retest of 1.4689 (2016 high) should be seen next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3222 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9930; (P) 0.9964; (R1) 1.0001; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for consolidation below 1.0092. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.9847 minor support holds. Break of 1.0092 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283. However, break of 0.9847 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9534/9630 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bottoming at 0.9534 building up, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. While it is too early to call for trend reversal, firm break of 0.9998 opens up stronger rebound back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.0630) even as a corrective rise. However, sustained trading back below 55 day EMA (now at 0.9938) will revive medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.9534 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1538; (P) 1.1581; (R1) 1.1658; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for consolidation below 1.1644. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1256 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1644 will resume rise form 1.0351 to 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.0922 at 1.2065. However, break of 1.1256 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0922 support and below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is part of the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1759 support turned resistance holds. Parity would be the next target on resumption. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.1759 will confirm medium term bottoming, and open up stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2392).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9901; (P) 0.9941; (R1) 0.9998; More...

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation from 1.0146 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is still expected with 0.9779 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.0146 will resume larger up trend to 1.0283 projection level. However, firm break of 0.9779 will be a sign of reversal, and bring deeper decline back to 0.9478 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9779 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.