Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8685; (P) 0.8707; (R1) 0.8734; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.8577. Further decline is expected with 0.8869 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.8577 will resume the fall from 0.9267, and target 61.8% projection of 0.9267 to 0.8647 from 0.8869 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5536; (P) 1.5586; (R1) 1.5635; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral as consolidation form 1.5685 is extending. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained by 1.5156 support. On the upside, break of 1.5685 will resume the rally from 1.4281 to 161.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5823.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9795; (P) 0.9813; (R1) 0.9835; More....

Upside momentum is a bit weak, but intraday bias stays on the upside in EUR/CHF. Current rise from 0.9407 should target 61.8% projection of 0.9407 to 0.9798 from 0.9641 at 0.9883. Decisive break there will solidify the case of medium term bottoming and target 100% projection at 1.0032. On the downside, below 0.9740 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.9864 resistance will confirm medium term bottoming at 0.9407. Stronger rally should then be seen to 55 week EMA (now at 1.0138), even as a corrective rebound. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9864 will bring down trend resumption through 0.9407 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9730; (P) 0.9801; (R1) 0.9844; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as sideway trading continues. Deeper decline is expected with 0.9998 resistance intact. Below 0.9630 will bring retest of 0.9534 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.9998 will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 0.9998 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1150; (P) 1.1254; (R1) 1.1322; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in range trading and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1494 will resume the rise from 1.0351 to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.0922 at 1.1628. On the downside, below 1.0922 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0351 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Next target is 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. There is no scope of a medium term rebound as long as 1.1759 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9963; (P) 1.0013; (R1) 1.0097; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral with focus on 1.0072 resistance. Break of 1.0072, and sustained trading above 1.0063, will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next target is 1.0283 projection level. However, break of 0.9914 support will indicate rejection by 1.0063, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9779 support first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.0063 will target 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9369 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.38; (P) 149.64; (R1) 150.18; More...

There is no clear sign of topping in USD/JPY despite risk of intervention by Japan to defend 150 psychological level. Intraday bias stays on the upside, and sustained break of 150 will pave the way to 100% projection of 130.38 to 140.33 from 145.89 at 155.84 next. Nevertheless, break of 148.11 support should confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is not clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 139.37 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3719; (P) 1.3764; (R1) 1.3810; More...

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3501 support holds. Firm break of 1.3976 will resume larger up trend, and target 200% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.4285.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Based on current impulsive momentum, it could be resuming long term up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Whether it is or it isn't, retest of 1.4689 (2016 high) should be seen next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3222 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6238; (P) 0.6282; (R1) 0.6312; More...

AUD/USD dips today but stays inside range of 0.6169/6362 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 0.6362 support turned resistance intact. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155 will target 138.2% projection at 0.5781. Nevertheless, break of 0.6362 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.6539 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Risk-off sentiment and rising treasury yields are giving Dollar some support again. The greenback's strengthen is more apparent against commodity currencies, which is reasonable. European majors are mixed for now, with Euro a touch more resilient. Meanwhile, Yen is indeed trying to recover against everyone but Dollar. There is no clear sign of intervention for now, but as Japan has repeatedly told the markets, there might not be pre-announcement.

Technically, Gold is dropping further towards 1614.60 support. Outlook is clearly bearish as it stays well below falling 55 day EMA, bounded inside the medium term falling channel. Firm break of 1614.60 will resume whole decline from 2070.06 to 61.8% projection of 2070.06 to 1680.83 from 1870.66 at 1567.11. The question is, if that happens, whether EUR/USD would also follow and break through 0.9534 low.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.25%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.57%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.39%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.07%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0070 at 0.261. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.33%. S&P 500 dropped -0.67%. NASDAQ dropped -0.85%. 10-year yield rose 0.129 to 4.127.

Fed Evans: We need to continue on the path we've been indicating

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday, "inflation is just much too high, and so we need to continue on the path that we've been indicating -- at least that. And I'm hopeful that that will be enough."

"Continued increases in the funds rate along the lines of our September SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) could lead to a economic outlook where we're going to see below-trend growth -- we'll be challenged in that regard -- we'll see the unemployment rate go up, but I think that it won't take off," Evans said.

"I think if we have to increase the path of the funds rate much more, though, it really does begin to weigh on the economy. I worry that it's sort of a nonlinear kind of event."

Fed Bullard: Goal is to raise rates to some meaningfully restrictive level

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that Fed's goal is to front-load aggressive rate hikes to move to "some meaningfully restrictive level" that would push inflation down.

For November meeting, Bullard said the results "has been more or less priced in to markets" for a 75 basis-point hike, even though he'd prefer to decide at the meting. As for December, didn't want to "prejudge".

Then, in 2023, "I think we'll be closer to the point where we can run what I would call ordinary monetary policy," he said. "Now you're at the right level of the policy rate, you're putting downward pressure on inflation, but you can adjust as the data come in in 2023."

Fed Kashkari: I can't see how I would recommend pausing interest rate increases

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that while headline inflation may have peaked, there is no evidence that core inflation has stopped climbing. So, "I can't see how I would recommend pausing interest rate increases," he added.

"My best guess right now is yes, do I think inflation is going to level out over the next few months, the services, the core inflation, and then that would position us some time next year to potentially pause," he added.

"I've seen very little evidence in my region that the labor market is softening," Kashkari said. "The No. 1 issue I hear from businesses small and large is that they're struggling to find workers, how they're having to pay more wages to keep their employees and to attract employees."

Australia employment grew 0.9k in Sep, unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%

Australia employment rose 0.9k in September, below expectation of 25.0k. Full-time employment increased by 13.3k while part0time employment contracted -12.4k.

Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%, matched expectations. Participation rate was unchanged at 66.6%. Monthly hours worked dropped -1m hours to 1853 hours.

"It is important to remember that the 1,000 employed people is a net figure – the difference between two large numbers. While employment growth has slowed in recent months, there are still close to half a million people entering employment each month, and around the same number leaving employment each month," Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said.

Japan exports rose 28.9% yoy in Sep, imports surged 45.2% yoy

Japan's exports rose 28.9% yoy to JPY 8189B in September. Exports to China grew 17.1% yoy while shipments to the US increased 45.2% yoy. Imports rose 45.9% yoy to JPY 10913B. However, the surge in import was unlikely a reflection of domestic demand, but sharp depreciation in Yen's exchanged rate. Trade deficit came in at JPY -2094B, down from August's record high of JPY -2817B

In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 3.2% mom to JPY 8672B. Imports dropped -0.6% mom to JPY 10682B. Trade deficit narrowed to JPY -2010B, slightly smaller than expectation of JPY -2.06T.

Looking ahead

Swiss trade balance, Germany PPI and Eurozone current account will be released in European session. Later in the day, US will release jobless claims, Philly Fed survey and existing home sales.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6238; (P) 0.6282; (R1) 0.6312; More...

AUD/USD dips today but stays inside range of 0.6169/6362 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 0.6362 support turned resistance intact. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155 will target 138.2% projection at 0.5781. Nevertheless, break of 0.6362 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.6539 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Economic Indicators Update