Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.93; (P) 139.47; (R1) 140.00; More....

EUR/JPY's rise from 133.38 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 133.38 to 138.38 from 135.50 at 140.50. Decisive break there will indicate upside acceleration, and raise the chance of up trend resumption through 144.26 high. On the downside, below 138.24 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Further rally is in favor as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back. Next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 134.11 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and turn focus to 124.37 support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8597; (P) 0.8634; (R1) 0.8654; More...

EUR/GBP retreated after hitting 0.8669, ahead of 0.8720 resistance, and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rally is in favor as long as 0.8510 resistance turned support holds. Above 0.8669 will target 0.8720. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8201 to 0.8720 from 0.8338 at 0.8857.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will argue that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend, rather than a correction. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 0.9003. Rejection by 0.8697 again will maintain medium term bearishness, for extending the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high) at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4581; (P) 1.4661; (R1) 1.4732; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral with focus on 1.4712 resistance. Sustained break there will turn bias to the upside, for stronger rebound back to 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 1.4318 low will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9739; (P) 0.9787; (R1) 0.9813; More....

EUR/CHF retreated after hitting 0.9833 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Corrective recovery from 0.9550 might still extend higher, but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.0512 to 0.9550 at 0.9917 to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.9696 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9950 low.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 0.9970 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3111; (P) 1.3160; (R1) 1.3202; More...

USD/CAD's rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.3222 resistance first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 1.2005. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, below 1.3062 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6758; (P) 0.6803; (R1) 0.6835; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.7135 is in progress. As noted before, corrective rebound from 0.6680 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7135. Retest of 0.6680 should be seen next. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7008 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7135 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9886; (P) 0.9972; (R1) 1.0033; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and further decline is expected with 1.0094 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.9899 will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860. Firm break there should prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9546. However, firm break of 1.0094 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.0368 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1488; (P) 1.1558; (R1) 1.1616; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the downside at this point. Current fall should target 1.1409 long term support. Firm break there will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.3748 to 1.1759 from 1.2292 at 1.1063 next. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2292 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2292 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2292 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2859).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9754; (P) 0.9807; (R1) 0.9870; More...

USD/CHF's rise form 0.9369 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally should target 0.9884 resistance first. Break there will argue that larger up trend is ready for resumption through 1.0063. On the downside, break of 0.9691 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.0063 will target 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9369 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

US equities had another hectic trading session on Thursday. America took over a bearish market from the Europeans, and news that China locks down 21 million people in Chengdu further stressed investors and sent the S&P 500 to a fresh low since July.

The index came very close to the major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the summer rally, near 3900 mark. Then, dipbuyers came in to send the index 0.30% higher at the close. The Dow and Nasdaq tipped a toe below their 61.8% retracement as well, but managed to rebound to close the session higher than this important technical level. The Dow closed in the positive, while Nasdaq ended the session near flat.

All eyes on NFPs

All eyes are on the US jobs data today- The US is expected to have added around 300’000 new nonfarm jobs in August. For the past four months, the NFP prints surprised the market with higher-than-expected job additions. And last month’s surprise was relatively big, as the NFP printed a figure above half a million jobs, more than twice the analyst expectations.

Another strong NFP print will guarantee a 75bp hike in FOMC’s September meeting.

And it is well possible. The jobless claims fell to the lowest levels in the past two months last week, and the latest ISM survey showed a strong surge in employment, from below 50, the contraction zone to above 54.

Presently, investors are braced for another strong NFP read, and activity on fed funds futures gives around 75% chance for a 75bp hike in September. We could see this probability spike higher in case of strong NFP data - which would mean higher US yields, a further advance in the US dollar, and some more negative pressure on stock valuations.

But, if today’s NFP print is in line or ideally softer-than-expected - as the Federal Reserve (Fed) would like it to be, then we could see a certain relief in the US yields, a rebound in equity markets and hopefully a downside correction in the dollar before the weekly closing bell.

Because the US dollar strength is getting out of control. The USDJPY advanced past the 140 psychological mark for the first time in almost 25 years. The dollar already appreciated by more than 20% against the Japanese yen this year and the yen has more to weaken, given the divergence between the increasingly more hawkish Fed, and quite relaxed Bank of Japan (BoJ).

The EURUSD, on the other hand, is again below parity, despite the increased pricing of a 75bp hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) this month, as well.

A deeper drop to parity has also become a realistic, and the base case scenario for Cable, which is now testing the 1.15 mark to the downside.

The FTSE 100 took a dive along with its European and American peers since the summer peak, but the index slid around 6%, while the S&P500 dropped almost 10%, as many big caps in the FTSE are energy and mining companies, and most of their revenues are denominated in US dollars.

Unfortunately, we can’t say the same for the FTSE 250, where the British mid-caps are increasingly under the pressure of soaring inflation, weakening pound and the prolonged political uncertainty.

Taking the battle to the technology field

Nvidia slumped more than 7% as the US government’s asked Nvidia and AMD to stop selling A100 and H100 chips to China, including Hong Kong and to Russia, unless they are granted licenses by the US government.

Why? Because Chinese and Russian organizations use the relatively cost competitive chips from Nvidia and others for their AI and military applications. That includes scanning satellite imagery for weapon bases or intelligence gathering. Therefore, it’s normal that with the war in Ukraine, the US wants to keep its chips to itself.

But obviously, that means trouble for Nvidia which was planning to sell $400 million worth of chips to China in the 3Q.

AMD’s stock also saw a decent selloff, but AMD could limit losses to 3% yesterday, as the company said that the measures shouldn’t have a material impact on its business.

Now, the US action doesn’t stop here. It is also said that Biden is willing to ban the exports of tools that are sent to the factories of SMIC, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., a Chinese chipmaker, to prevent them from building chips smaller than 14 nanometer.

This means, the US is taking the war to the technology field.