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Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.54; (P) 137.10; (R1) 137.64; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. The corrective pattern from 144.25 is still extending. On the upside, above 138.38 will resume the rebound from 138.38. On the downside, below 134.93 will turn bias back to the downside for 133.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Further rally is in favor as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back. Next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 134.11 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and turn focus to 124.37 support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8431; (P) 0.8449; (R1) 0.8473; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.8491 resistance will resume the rebound from 0.8338. That would also argue that choppy decline from 0.8720 has completed. Bias will be back to the upside for 0.8585 resistance. On the downside, below 0.8386 should resume the fall from 0.8720 through 0.8338.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Medium term bearishness is maintained. Break of 0.8201 will resume larger down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high). Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8697 will affirm the case that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend itself.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4538; (P) 1.4627; (R1) 1.4677; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and another fall is in favor with 1.4804 resistance intact. Firm break of 1.4318 low will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. However, break of 1.4804 will delay the bearish case and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9633; (P) 0.9666; (R1) 0.9688; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation from 0.9602 and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.9948 resistance to bring another fall. Break of 0.9602 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9970 from 1.0513 at 0.9334.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 0.9970 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2896; (P) 1.2932; (R1) 1.2982; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.2984 resistance will argue that corrective fall from 1.3222 has completed with three waves down to 1.2726. Further rally would be seen back to retest 1.3222 high. On the downside, break of 1.2726 will resume the fall from 1.3222 to 1.2516 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6887; (P) 0.6928; (R1) 0.6958; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside for 0.6868 support. Firm break there argue that whole rebound from 0.6680 is finished, and bring retest of 0.6680 low. On the upside, above 0.7030 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.06; (P) 135.48; (R1) 136.31; More...

USD/JPY's rise from 130.38 resumes by breaking through 135.57 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern from 139.37. On the downside below 134.61 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9521; (P) 0.9546; (R1) 0.9595; More...

USD/CHF's strong break of near term channel resistance argues that fall from 0.9884 might be finished. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 0.9648 resistance fir. Firm break there will bring stronger rally back to 0.9884 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9496 minor support will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.9369 low.

In the bigger picture, break of 0.9471 support turned resistance argues that medium term up trend from 0.8756 has completed with three waves up to 1.0063. Long term sideway pattern might have started another falling leg. Deeper decline would now be in favor as long as 0.9648 resistance holds, to 0.9149 structural support. Sustained break there could pave the way back to 0.8756. However, firm break of 0.648 will revive the case that price actions from 1.0063 are just a corrective pattern, and the larger up trend is no over yet.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1876; (P) 1.1978; (R1) 1.2033; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the downside as fall from 1.2292 is in progress for retesting 1.1759 support. Firm break there will resume larger down trend Next target is 1.1409 low. On the upside, above 1.2078 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2292 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2897).

Dollar's rally has finally made some progress overnight and the momentum continues in Asian session. Other currencies are mixed for now with no clear loser. For the week, Aussie and Kiwi are on the weaker side while Euro and Canadian are the stronger ones. But the picture could easily flip before close. A question is on whether stock markets would have another surge which gives Yen extra pressure.

Technically, some attention remains on 0.6868 support in AUD/USD and 1.2984 resistance in USD/CAD. Break of these levels will confirm the underlying strength of Dollar against commodity currencies too. Such development could drag EUR/USD further lower through parity, towards 0.9951 low.

In Asia, Nikkei closed down -0.05%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.25%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.25%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.74%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0009 at 0.199. Overnight DOW rose 0.06%. S&P 500 rose 0.23% NASDAQ rose 0.21%. 10-year yield 10year yield dropped -0.013 to 2.880.

UK retail sales volume rose 0.3% mom in Jul

In volume term, UK retail sales rose 0.3% mom in July, better than expectation of -0.2% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom. Comparing to a year ago, retail sales dropped -3.4% yoy while ex-auto sales dropped -3.0% yoy.

In value term, retail sales rose 1.3% mom, 7.8% yoy. Ex-auto sales rose 1.4% mom, 5.7% yoy.

From Germany, PPI rose 5.3% mom, 37.2% yoy in July, above expectation of 0.5% mom, 31.5% yoy.

UK Gfk consumer confidence drooped to -44, another record low

UK Gfk consumer confidence dropped from -41 to -44 in August, hitting another record low. Personal financial situation over the next 12 months dropped from -26 to -31. General economic situation over the next 12 months dropped from -57 to -60, setting a new record low.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director, GfK says: "The Overall Index Score dropped three points in August to -44, the lowest since records began in 1974. All measures fell, reflecting acute concerns as the cost-of-living soars. A sense of exasperation about the UK's economy is the biggest driver of these findings."

Japan CPI core rose to 2.4% yoy, highest since 2014

Japan headline CPI rose from 2.4% yoy to 2.6% yoy in July, above expectation of 2.2% yoy. CPI core (all items ex-fresh food) rose from 2.2% yoy to 2.4% yoy, matched expectations. CPI core-core (all items ex-food, energy) rose from 1.0% yoy to 1.2% yoy, above expectations of 0.6% yoy.

Core inflation has now exceeded BoJ's 2% target for four straight months, and hit the highest level since December 2014. The core-core reading was also the fastest since December 2015, while the headline reading was the strongest since 2008.

Both Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda have called for robust wage gains to ensure that inflation is sustainable. But the markets are expecting some pressure on the BoJ for acting on monetary policy if CPI hits 3%.

New Zealand goods exports rose 16% yoy in Jul, imports rose 26% yoy

New Zealand goods exports rose 16% yoy to NZD 6.7B in July. Goods imports rose 26% yoy to NZD 7.8B. Trade deficit came in at NZD -1.1B, comparing expectation of NZD 105m surplus.

China led the monthly rise in exports, up 13%. Exports to Australia was down -1.1%, USA up 5.8%, EU up 7.5%, Japan up 18%. Imports from China was up 19%, EU up 3.0%, Australia up 16%, USA up 34%, and Japan up 54%.

Fed George: Direction for rates pretty clear, but pace to be debated

Kansas City Fed President Esther George said yesterday that "the case for continuing to raise rates remains strong" and "the direction is pretty clear".

But, "the question of how fast that has to happen is something my colleagues and I will continue to debate," she added.

"We have done a lot, and I think we have to be very mindful that our policy decisions often operate on a lag. We have to watch carefully how that's coming through," she warned.

Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said  the central bank needs to "urgently" bring down inflation. "The question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession?" he said. "And my answer to that question is, I don't know."

Fed Bullard: We should continue to move expeditiously on rates

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told WSJ, "we should continue to move expeditiously to a level of the policy rate that will put significant downward pressure on inflation" and "I don't really see why you want to drag out interest rate increases into next year."

Bullard also indicated that he backs another 75bps rate hike in September. He also reiterated he preference to have federal funds rate at 3.75-4.00% by the end of the year, from current 2.25-2.50%.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0047; (P) 1.0120; (R1) 1.0160; More...

EUR/USD's fall from 1.0368 resumed by breaking through 1.0121. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.9951 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend trend. Next near term targets are 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860, and then 100% projection at 0.9546. On the upside, above 1.0203 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0368 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Economic Indicators Update