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The Dow Jones 30 treads water as strong US jobs data may underpin aggressive tightening. The index has found bids over 32500. June’s high at 33300 is a major resistance. The RSI’s repeated overbought condition may cause a pullback as profit-taking meets fresh selling in the supply zone. A bullish breakout would trigger momentum buying and flush out a slew of medium-term sellers, which would pave the way for an extended recovery in the weeks to come. A fall below 32500 would trigger a correction towards 32000.

The New Zealand dollar loses steam after a slowdown in inflation expectations. The price is at a crossroads after the recent rally came to a halt in the supply zone (0.6350), while a bullish MA cross on the daily chart may attract more buying interest. A rally above 0.6310 and the said hurdle could propel the kiwi to June’ high at 0.6560, alleviating the downward pressure in the medium-term. 0.6190 is a key support as the bulls look to consolidate their gains. Further down, 0.6120 is a critical floor to keep the current rebound intact.

The Swiss franc consolidates as July’s unemployment rate holds steady. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the previous sell-off. Successive breaks above 0.9580 and 0.9630 prompted the short side to cover and reconsider. Sentiment may turn around if the greenback stays above the demand zone near 0.9500. A close above the double top at 0.9650 would extend the rally towards 0.9810 next to the July peak. On the downside, a bearish breakout could trigger a new round of liquidation towards 0.9350.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0161; (P) 1.0192; (R1) 1.0224; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/USD. Outlook is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.0095 minor support will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for retesting 0.9951 low first. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0348 support turned resistance holds, even in case of another rise.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.41; (P) 134.99; (R1) 135.62; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside for the moment. Rise from 130.38 should target a test on 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, to bring another fall, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 139.37. On the downside, below 132.50 minor support will resume the fall from 139.37 towards 126.35 structural support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2039; (P) 1.2088; (R1) 1.2129; More...

At this point, intraday bias in GBP/USD stays mildly on the downside. Rebound from 1.1759 should have completed after hitting 55 day EMA. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 1.1759 low. On the upside, break of 1.2292 will resume the rebound towards 1.2405 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2925).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9503; (P) 0.9573; (R1) 0.9625; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.9650, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.9647) will raise the chance that corrective pattern from 1.0063 has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 0.9884 resistance next. However, decisive break of 0.9471 support will carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 1.0342 (2016 high). Sustained break there will resume long term up trend from 0.7065 (2011 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9471 resistance turned support holds. However, firm break of 0.9471 will raise the chance that such up trend is over.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6919; (P) 0.6965; (R1) 0.7031; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen below 0.7045. On the upside, break of 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6680 to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2813; (P) 1.2882; (R1) 1.2924; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current deep retreat. On the downside, break of 1.2817 minor support will suggest that fall from 1.3222 high is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.2766 support and below. On the upside, above 1.2984 will resume the rebound to retest 1.3222 high instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.50; (P) 163.18; (R1) 163.78; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from pattern from 168.67 could extend further. On the upside, above 163.97 will turn bias to the upside, and resume the rebound to 166.31 resistance. Break there will be the first sign of up trend resumption. On the downside, break of 159.42 will extend the correction towards 155.57 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.