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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3116; (P) 1.3150; (R1) 1.3184; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in range above 1.3008 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen but further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2780) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7972; (P) 0.8020; (R1) 0.8053; More…

USD/CHF's fall from 0.8123 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Corrective rebound from 0.7828 should have completed with three waves up to 0.8123. Deeper decline should be seen to 0.7872 support. Firm break there will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.7828 low. On the upside, above 0.8031 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.72; (P) 154.11; (R1) 154.54; More...

USD/JPY's rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally from 139.87 should target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Firm break there will pave the way to 158.86 key structural resistance. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 152.81 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

The key themes driving global FX markets this week continued to dominate today’s session, with Yen weakness, Sterling softness, and Swiss Franc strength dominating. Political pressure in Japan, renewed rate-cut expectations in the UK, and optimism over a U.S.–Swiss trade breakthrough have kept traders rotating between safety and growth exposures, while risk sentiment remains mixed.

In Japan, the Yen’s selloff extended as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi again urged the BoJ to hold off on tightening, arguing that the current bout of inflation—driven largely by food prices—is not the kind policymakers should welcome. Her public stance has effectively narrowed the odds of a rate hike this year. Governor Kazuo Ueda would likely refrain from proposing any move at the December meeting, with January seen as the earliest possible window for resuming normalization.

In the UK, Sterling remained under pressure as traders grew more confident that the BoE will deliver a rate cut in December, following weak employment data earlier this week. The Q3 GDP figures due tomorrow will be a critical input into those expectations, while the Autumn Budget on November 26 is viewed as the final political hurdle before easing can proceed.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc continued to outperform on mounting optimism that Washington and Bern are close to finalizing a trade deal that would slash U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports from 39% to 15%. Such a move would align Swiss treatment with that of EU goods, boosting the country’s export competitiveness and capital inflows.

Across broader markets, investors are awaiting a crucial U.S. House vote expected later today that could finally bring an end to the historic government shutdown. Yet sentiment remains tentative, with AI-related and semiconductor stocks oscillating after recent heavy swings. The uncertainty has kept risk appetite from gaining a firm footing, especially among commodity-linked currencies.

For the week so far, Swiss Franc leads as the strongest performer, followed by Aussie and Kiwi, though both antipodeans remain capped below last week’s highs, reflecting the prevailing indecision in risk trades. On the other end, Yen is the weakest, trailed by Sterling and Dollar, while Euro and Loonie are holding mid-pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.03%. DAX is up 1.27%. CAC is up 1.35%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.029 at 4.421. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.002 at 2.665. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.43%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.85%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.07%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.59%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.004 to 1.691.

ECB’s Schnabel: Rates appropriately set, inflation still sticky

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said interest rates are “in a good place,” indicating no immediate need to shift policy as long as major shocks are avoided. “If there is no big shock, I would be rather relaxed,” she saidat a conference today.

Still, Schnabel warned that the risks to inflation are "tilted a little bit to the upside". “Services inflation is a bit higher than we thought,” she noted, adding that pay pressures are cooling “more slowly than expected.”

Schnabel also pointed to signs that the Eurozone economy is recovering faster than feared, citing October’s PMI improvement as evidence that growth momentum is picking up even under higher U.S. tariffs.

“My narrative is one of an economy that is recovering, with a closing output gap,” she said.

RBA’s Jones warns on geopolitical risk underpricing, notes Gold shift

RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones cautioned that global markets may be underestimating geopolitical risks and systemic fragmentation. At a conference today, he highlighted that risk premiums across major asset classes have fallen to “concerning lows,” suggesting investors are failing to fully price in potential shocks.

“We’re just surprised that there’s not a bit more reflected in spreads given what we observe,” Jones said, pointing to what he called “a confronting set of potential risks.”

Jones also drew attention to shifting dynamics in global reserve management, noting “emerging evidence of fragmentation” in how central banks allocate their assets. He said a distinct group of countries has driven the recent surge in official Gold holdings, reflecting a growing desire to diversify away from dollar- and euro-denominated assets amid heightened concerns about "risk of asset seizure sanctions".

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.72; (P) 154.11; (R1) 154.54; More...

USD/JPY's rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally from 139.87 should target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Firm break there will pave the way to 158.86 key structural resistance. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 152.81 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said interest rates are “in a good place,” indicating no immediate need to shift policy as long as major shocks are avoided. “If there is no big shock, I would be rather relaxed,” she saidat a conference today.

Still, Schnabel warned that the risks to inflation are "tilted a little bit to the upside". “Services inflation is a bit higher than we thought,” she noted, adding that pay pressures are cooling “more slowly than expected.”

Schnabel also pointed to signs that the Eurozone economy is recovering faster than feared, citing October’s PMI improvement as evidence that growth momentum is picking up even under higher U.S. tariffs.

“My narrative is one of an economy that is recovering, with a closing output gap,” she said.

USDJPY accelerated higher on Wednesday, as breach of recent multi-tops (148.50) triggered stops and pushed the price to the highest since early February.

The pair was up 0.45% on Wednesday morning, with recent break above bull-channel upper boundary and bear-trendline off 161.95 (153.92/95) / Fibo 76.4% of 158.87/139.88 (154.39 respectively) generating fresh bullish signal.

Daily close above the latter to verify the signal.

Bulls neared 155.00 (round-figure barrier), violation of which would provide fresh boost on triggering stops, parked just above and expose next targets at 155.88 and 156.24.

Technical studies remain firmly bullish on daily chart and supports the action, with currently preferred scenario of limited profit taking to mark positioning for further advance.

Dips should stay above 154.00 (converged and crossing trendlines) to keep bias firmly with bulls.

However, market participants remain very cautious of potential intervention of the Japanese central bank, which is not very happy with sharp weakening of the national currency.

Although the intervention signals were so far only verbal, without more significant signals, it remains as one of very likely scenarios in the near-term.

Res: 155.00; 155.88; 156.24; 156.50
Sup: 154.39; 154.00; 153.40; 152.90

Fresh bullish acceleration from new higher base at 0.8765, extends into second consecutive day and came just ticks ahead of 2025 peak (0.8829, posted last week) on track to fully reverse four-day 0.8829/0.8765 corrective leg and to resume broader uptrend.

Political crisis in the UK and budget uncertainty add pressure on sterling, along with cooling labor market (unemployment in UK rose to four-year high) contributing to expectations for BOE rate cut.

Bullish continuation signal is expected on firm break of 0.8829 top that would open way towards 0.8875 (Apr 23 high), 0.8900 (round-figure) and 0.8925 (March 7).

Solid supports lay at 0.8800/0.8790 (broken Fibo 76.4% / rising 10DMA) followed by a higher base at 0.8765, above which extended dips should find support to keep bulls in play.

Res: 0.8875; 0.8900; 0.8925; 0.8978.
Sup: 0.8800; 0.8790; 0.8765; 0.8750.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap continues to decline, losing nearly 2% over the past 24 hours to $3.47 trillion. Thus, the market remains within the downward trend that formed just over a month ago. Within this trend, there is potential for a decline to the next local lows of around 9%, and the market could rush towards the $3.2 trillion mark in the coming days.

The sentiment index at 24 remains on the border between fear and extreme fear. As in the spring, it will take a long time for sentiment to reverse. Since the end of September, Bitcoin has been regaining its share of the crypto market, which was lost in July.

Bitcoin recorded a local low of $102.5K at the start of the day, later rising above $103K. In the short term, BTC bulls are attempting to form a bottom, but the acceleration in growth is being countered by heavy selling, and the overall picture aligns with a larger downtrend.

News Background

Large investors who bought Bitcoin at prices around $110.8K are recording massive losses in recent days, according to CryptoQuant. However, the selling pressure is partially offset by new buyers.

Institutional investors are confident in a cryptocurrency rally before the end of the year. According to a survey by digital bank Sygnum, more than 61% of respondents intend to increase their investments in crypto assets. In their opinion, the launch of altcoin-based ETFs and the adoption of bills on the structure of the cryptocurrency market will sustain the bullish cycle in 2026.

Strategy bought 487 bitcoins (~$50 million) over the past week at an average price of $102,557 per coin. Strategy now owns 641,692 BTC worth $47.54 billion. During its recent IPO on the European stock market, Strategy raised more than $700 million to secure its preferred shares.

Large investors have resumed buying Ethereum after the recent correction. At the same time, retail traders are cautious, notes ShayanMarkets analyst.

Ethereum reserves on Binance have dropped to their lowest level since May last year, according to CryptoQuant. This is traditionally seen as a bullish signal in the medium term.

The market capitalisation of altcoins still maintains a critically important level of support, according to analyst Michael van de Poppe. In his opinion, the bull market is far from over and is expected to reach new heights in 2026.

The GBP/USD pair snapped a four-day winning streak, declining for a second day to trade around 1.3135. The sell-off was triggered by UK labour market data revealing a rise in unemployment and a deceleration in annual wage growth. These figures have bolstered market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could initiate interest rate cuts as early as December.

The shifting sentiment was reflected in government bonds, with the two-year gilt yield falling 6 basis points to 3.74%, its lowest level since August 2024.

Appetite for risk was mixed across asset classes. European stock indices managed gains, while S&P 500 futures edged down approximately 0.2%.

In currency markets, traders are increasingly pricing in a more dovish path for BoE policy. Current pricing implies roughly 21 basis points of cuts by December, with a total of up to 65 basis points of easing projected by the end of 2026. Economists suggest that, given the softening labour market and anticipated fiscal tightening, the BoE's base rate could fall to 3.00% from the current 4.00%.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD broke upwards from a consolidation range around 1.3100, completing a corrective wave to 1.3185. We now anticipate a decline back towards the 1.3100 support level. A brief rebound to 1.3150 may follow, establishing a new consolidation range. A subsequent downward breakout from this range would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend, opening the path towards 1.3000, with a further potential decline to at least 1.2915. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero but has diverged from its histogram, suggesting the initial upward correction is exhausted and a new decline is beginning.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed an upward correction to 1.3188 after breaking from a range at 1.3100. A new downward wave is now developing, initially targeting 1.3108. Following this, a technical retracement to test 1.3150 from below is expected. Once this correction is complete, the downtrend is projected to extend towards 1.3050. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line is at the 20 level, indicating oversold conditions but also supporting the view that downward momentum is currently dominant.

Conclusion

The pound is weakening as soft labour market data fuels expectations of imminent BoE monetary easing. Technically, the pair appears to have completed a corrective bounce and is now poised to resume its primary downtrend. The immediate focus is on the 1.3100 support; a sustained break below this level would confirm a move towards 1.3000 and potentially lower.

Earlier we asked whether October would prove bullish for Bitcoin. The BTC/USD chart has given a clear negative answer. November, too, appears likely to close in the red — despite the fact that these two months have historically marked one of the strongest periods of growth for the leading cryptocurrency.

The previously identified range of $116K–$120K has acted as a strong resistance zone, and Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are now more clearly shaping a descending channel, the lower boundary of which connects the series of lower lows formed over the past three months.

Concerns have been heightened by a Bloomberg report noting that, unlike the “October crash”, which was largely driven by the liquidation of leveraged positions, the current wave of selling is coming from a key segment of the market — long-term holders. Since early October, they have reportedly sold around 400,000 BTC, which could serve as a warning signal for the market.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD

Early November was marked by a decline below the psychological $100K level — a false bearish breakout. Following a brief spike in panic-driven selling, the price rebounded towards the channel’s median, effectively mirroring the earlier false bullish breakout that had established the current all-time high. This price action resembles a liquidity grab pattern.

It is worth noting that the $107K level has now switched its role from support to resistance, reflecting the bears’ (so far successful) attempt to keep the price in the lower half of the red channel. Should they maintain control, the market may move towards a test of the June lows, where another false bearish breakout could potentially form — as indicated by the arrow with a question mark on the chart.

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