Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8444; (P) 0.8460; (R1) 0.8477; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 0.8201 should have completed at 0.8720, after rejection by 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level. Further fall would be seen to retest 0.8201/48 support zone next. On the upside, above 0.8531 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697 argues that rebound from 0.8201 is merely a corrective move. That is, down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high) is now over. Sustained break of 0.8201 will resume such decline and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8720 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4809; (P) 1.4856; (R1) 1.4906; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays mildly on the downside for 1.4759 support. Corrective rise from 1.4318 should have completed at 1.5396 after rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance. Sustained break of 1.4759 will affirm this bearish case and bring retest of 1.4318 low. On the upside, above 1.5043 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5398), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9889; (P) 0.9922; (R1) 0.9977; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for consolidation above 0.9864 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.0216 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 0.9864 will resume larger down trend to 0.9650 long term projection level.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 week EMA affirmed medium term bearishness. Long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to target 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. On the upside, break of 1.0513 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2903; (P) 1.2970; (R1) 1.3003; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. Further rise is mildly in favor with 1.2818 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3082 and sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications, and bring up trend resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, break of 1.2818 minor support will bring deeper fall back to 1.2516 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6809; (P) 0.6842; (R1) 0.6891; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Strong support could still be seen from 0.6756/60 cluster support to complete the whole correction from 0.8006, and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6918 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7282 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6461 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Strong support is expected from 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756 to complete the pattern. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. However firm break of 0.6756/60 will raise the chance of bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0108; (P) 1.0150 (R1) 1.0227; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0070 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0358 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.0070 will target 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937, which is close to parity.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.0339 long term support (2017 low) indicates resumption of whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1951; (P) 1.2004; (R1) 1.2087; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for consolidation above 1.1874. Outlook remains bearish with 1.2405 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.1874 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 1.2666 to 1.1932 from 1.2405 at 1.1671. Break there will target 1.1409 long term support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.3065).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9727; (P) 0.9762; (R1) 0.9803; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Consolidation pattern from 1.0063 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9493 already. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.0063 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, break of 0.9670 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Next target is 1.0342 (2016 high). Sustained break there will resume long term up trend from 0.7065 (2011 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9471 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.42; (P) 136.00; (R1) 136.66; More...

Break of 136.99 suggests up trend resumption in USD/JPY and intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 136.99 will confirm and target 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 134.73 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Yen's selloff resumes in Asian session with USD/JPY making new recent high. The ruling coalition of Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner Komeito scored a strong victory in Japan's upper house elections. There might be sympathetic votes for the tragic death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But it's also seen as a nod to Abe's legacy on bringing Japan back as a "normal" country with stronger military and alliance with the US. Dollar is currently the stronger one, followed by Swiss Franc and then Kiwi. On the other hand, Aussie is the second weakest following Yen, followed by Sterling.

Technical, a major focus for the week is on whether EUR/USD's down trend would pick up more momentum from the current level. The key level to watch is parity. Break of 1.0348 support turned resistance will be the first sign of stabilization, and bring consolidations. But sustained break of parity could prompt even deeper selloff, risking more downside acceleration.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.26%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.74%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.46%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.06%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.005 at 0.246.

BoJ Kuroda: We won't hesitate to take additional monetary easing steps as necessary

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned of the "very high uncertainty" on economic outlook due to surging commodity prices. While the economy is showing some signs of weakness, overall it's still picking up as a trend.

"We won't hesitate to take additional monetary easing steps as necessary," he added, repeating that short- and long-term interest rate targets to "move at current or lower levels."

Released from Japan, M2 rose 3.3% yoy in June versus expectation of 3.4% yoy. Machine orders dropped -5.6% mom in May, versus expectation of -5.5% mom.

NZD/USD in tight range, eyeing support from 0.6098 projection level

NZD/USD is staying in tight range above 0.6123 temporary low, looking forward to RBNZ rate hike later in the week. There is prospect of a rebound from medium term projection level at 0.6098 (100% projection of 0.7463 to 0.6528 from 0.7033). But break of 0.6251 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming, while firm break of 0.6395 resistance is needed to confirm. However, sustained break of 0.6098 would risk more downside acceleration to 161.% projection at 0.5520, which is close to 0.5467 (2020 low).

AUD/CAD staying in down trend, risks more downside

Canadian Dollar has been outperforming other commodity currencies recently and stays generally firm. There is prospect of further rally in the Loonie if BoC opts for a 75bps rate hike this week, instead of 50bps.

Looking at AUD/CAD, it's staying well in the down trend from 0.9991 (2021 high). Outlook stays bearish as long as 0.8916 minor resistance holds. Break of 0.8744 temporary low will indicate down trend resumption. Next medium term target will be 100% projection of 0.9991 to 0.8906 from 0.9514 at 0.8429.

Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8916 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound first.

RBNZ and BoC rate hike, US CPI and retail sales

Two central banks are expected to deliver rate hikes this week. RBNZ should raise the official cash rate by another 50bps to 2.50%. According to RBNZ's own forecast variables in May, OCR could reach as high as 3.9% in Q2 2023, before gradually falling back in the second half of 2024. There is little that suggests RBNZ would deviate from is. So, a hawkish stance should be maintained.

Opinions on whether BoC would hike by 50bps or 75bps this week is divided. Governor Tiff Macklem noted back in June 9, "we may need to take more interest rate steps to get inflation back to target. Or we may need to move more quickly, we may need to take a larger step." But ti's unsure whether that would really translate into a larger hike this time. BoC will also publish new monetary policy report with economic projections.

On the data front, US CPI and retail sales will probably catch most attention. But attention will also be on Germany ZEW, UK GDP, and a batch of data from China, including trade balance, GDP, retail sales and industrial production. Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Japan machine orders; Italy retail sales.
• Tuesday: Japan PPI; Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, NAB business confidence; Germany ZEW.
• Wednesday: RBNZ rate decision; China trade balance; Germany CPI final; UK GDP, productions, trade balance; Eurozone industrial production; US CPI; BoC rate decision; Fed's Beige Book.
• Thursday: Australia inflation expectations, employment; Swiss PPI; Canada manufacturing sales; US PPI, jobless claims.
• Friday: New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing; China GDP, retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment; Japan tertiary industry index; Eurozone trade balance; Canada wholesales sales; US retail sales, Empire State manufacturing, import prices, industrial production, U of Michigan consumer sentiment, business inventories.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.42; (P) 136.00; (R1) 136.66; More...

Break of 136.99 suggests up trend resumption in USD/JPY and intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 136.99 will confirm and target 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 134.73 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Economic Indicators Update