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Silver recoups some losses as the US dollar takes a breather. On the daily chart, the price has struggled to lift offers around the 30-day moving average, suggesting prevailing selling interest. A drop below 20.90 has invalidated the mid-June rally. As buyers seek to bail out, the path of least resistance could be down. May’s low at 20.50 is the last support and its breach could trigger a broader sell-off towards 19.00. On the upside, 21.50 is the closest resistance and the triple top (22.00) a major level before a recovery could happen.

The pound inched higher as Britain’s retail sales showed a smaller-than-expected contraction in May. The euros came under pressure at 0.8640 for lack of momentum. The bulls have sought support in the demand zone between 0.8550 and 0.8570. A close above the said resistance could extend the rally to the recent peak at 0.8720, a step closer to a sustainable recovery in the medium-term. A bearish breakout though would send the euro to 0.8490 which is a key level to keep the two-month long recovery intact.

EURUSD opened the week with a muted tone, consolidating its rebound off 5½-year lows marginally below the tough resistance trendline drawn from the 1.1494 high and its shorter-term simple moving averages (SMAs) around 1.0580.

The upside reversal in the RSI and the MACD’s slow improvement above its red signal line is sending some positive vibes about short-term trading, though as long as the indicators hover in the bearish area, downside risks remain intact. The stochastics are setting a bearish intersection following their latest upleg, mirroring fading buying appetite as well.

Slightly above the trendline, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1494 – 1.0348 downleg might prove another struggle for the bulls at 1.0620. Therefore, traders may wait for a durable extension above that bar before targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.0789 and May’s swing high. Running higher, the pair will need to claim the 50% Fibonacci of 1.0925 to gain direct access to the longer-term trendline at 1.1065 and the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.1135. Strikingly, the falling 200-day SMA is located within the same region.

Alternatively, should the pair lose the battle at 1.0549 and correct lower, it could immediately find some footing around the 1.0459 restrictive area. Failure to bounce here would bring the double bottom around 1.0348 next into consideration. Any violation at this point is expected to extend the more-than-a-year old series of lower lows towards the 1.0200 psychological level.

In brief, EURUSD is reflecting a neutral-to- bearish bias in the short-term picture. A move above 1.0620 or below 1.0459 could navigate the market accordingly.

The USDJPY is trading within a narrow range in early Monday, after a pullback from new multi-year high (136.70) was repeatedly limited by Fibo 23.6% of 126.36/136.70 upleg (134.26) with another positive signal seen on repeated failure to close below cracked 10DMA (134.95) that keeps near-term bias positive.

Limited correction so far keeps overall bullish structure intact despite weakening bullish momentum on daily chart, however, weekly Doji with long upper shadow and overbought conditions warn of extended consolidation or possible deeper dips and require caution.

The pair is on track for strong monthly gains after steep rally in past three months paused in May, signaling that a larger uptrend remains intact and bulls eye retest of 136.70 peak, violation of which would signal bullish continuation.

Immediate focus is expected to remain at the upside while the near-term action stays above 10DMA and 134.26 Fibo support, while break here would open way for dips towards 132.75 (Fibo 38.2% of 126.36/136.70) which should contain and protect lower pivot at 131.53 (50% retracement/daily Kijun-sen/June 16 trough).

Res: 135.59; 136.27; 136.70; 137.28.
Sup: 134.26; 134.09; 133.53; 132.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.06; (P) 165.68; (R1) 166.56; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 168.67 resistance will resume larger up trend. Next near term target is 100% projection of 155.57 to 168.67 from 159.97 at 173.07. On the downside, below 164.45 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 159.97 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.80; (P) 142.28; (R1) 143.17; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 144.23 will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 141.39 minor support will bring deeper fall, to extend the corrective pattern from 144.23.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Sustained trading above 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06 will indicate upside acceleration and target 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 132.63 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8557; (P) 0.8599; (R1) 0.8624; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment, as range trading continues. Further rally is expected with 0.8484 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.8720 and sustained trading above 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 0.9003 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.8484 will indicate rejection by 0.8697 and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8201 medium term bottom could could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697 will affirm the latter case, and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.9003. However, rejection by 0.8697 will maintain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5153; (P) 1.5217; (R1) 1.5265; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 1.5354 support turned resistance will indicate medium term bottoming at 1.4318. Stronger rally would be seen back to 100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5277 from 1.4759 at 1.5718. On the downside, however, break of 1.5083 minor support will retain medium term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.4759 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0066; (P) 1.0102; (R1) 1.0154; More....

With 1.0214 resistance intact, further decline is expected in EUR/CHF to retest 0.9970 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, however, above 1.0214 minor resistance will delay the bearish case, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0522; (P) 1.0546 (R1) 1.0581; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further fall is in favor with 1.0786 resistance intact. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0339/48 will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case, and bring stronger rebound first.