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We’re coming toward the end of a geopolitically calm-ish week — no major threats, no major events — but with rising volatility in the metals markets. Yesterday was again marked by a strong rally in gold, silver and copper prices, followed this time by a sharp selloff.

Note that the impressive rally in LME copper was triggered by intense speculative trading in China. So metals markets are fuming right now.

Gold is down to around $5’230 per ounce at the time of writing after flirting with the $5’600 level at yesterday’s peak. That’s insane considering the week started near $5’000. And what was just as insane was the sharp selloff that followed. Gold wiped out around $2.5 trillion in market value in just 30 minutes, sending prices from above $5’500 to around $5’100.

Silver also traded past $121 an ounce before pulling back sharply, and is down again in Asia this morning — same story for copper.

Are we surprised? No, we’re not. Price action in metals was impressive, but it could be expected just by looking at the rising stress through the lens of the gold volatility index.

A major spike there has been telling us a lot about the building stress behind such an impressive rally, which lately became driven more by speculation than fundamentals. That means we could see a meaningful pullback of 8–10%, toward the $4’600–4’800 per ounce range, to relieve some of that stress.

Price pullbacks, however, will likely be seen as opportunities to strengthen long positions, as the major drivers of the metals rally — unsustainable-but-still-rising G7 debt, waning appetite for the US dollar, trade and geopolitical uncertainties, the search for supranational assets able to preserve value in case of further geopolitical chaos, and potentially rising price pressures — remain fully in play.

Tensions between the US and Iran these days don’t only push oil prices higher — US crude briefly spiked past $66 per barrel yesterday — they also point to potential disruptions in major trade routes in the region. So, demand for hard commodities and safe-haven assets is certainly not over. That said, a correction looks healthy at these strongly overbought levels.

Voilà — that’s the take on metals: bullish in the longer run, cautious in the short run. Any geopolitical headline could disrupt the correction process and trigger a premature return to metals.

In currencies, the US dollar is consolidating early-week losses near four-year low levels. The USDJPY is unsurprisingly rising again and likely has room to run toward levels that would make Japanese authorities uncomfortable — namely the 160 level. The EURUSD is struggling as well, having failed to hold above 1.20.

Something notable happened this week: large bets were placed via Euribor options expiring in March and June, betting on a 25bp ECB rate cut before summer. That’s clearly a contrarian trade, as markets are pricing a 25bp cut this year with 25% chance only. But it also suggests some investors are preparing for US-EU relations to worsen before improving, and for European economies to require ECB support.

What’s sure is that, with or without stabilization in US relations, EU governments will likely have to deliver on defence and technology spending, implying meaningful fiscal support.

And we all know what the sweet combination of expansive fiscal and monetary policy means for equity markets: gains. As a result, stimulus expectations keep the Stoxx outlook positive, with defence names the first-line beneficiaries of fiscal flows.

Note that the Stoxx 600 fell yesterday, alongside major US peers. One of Europe’s biggest tech names, SAP, tanked 16% after reporting disappointing earnings — notably a lower-than-expected cloud backlog, meaning revenues already committed by customers for future cloud services but not yet recognized. SAP said negotiations took longer than expected and that AI tools should eventually drive customer migration from on-premise servers to the cloud. That narrative hasn’t convinced investors so far: the stock is down more than 40% since February 2025. Whether this is an opportunity or whether SAP’s AI push turns into a flop remains to be seen.

In the US, Microsoft also had an ugly day — a very ugly one, its worst since the DeepSeek-triggered Nvidia selloff last year. Shares dropped around 10%, rebounding from a critical technical level near $423, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the past three-year AI rally.

That level matters: a break below would signal an end to the bullish trend and a return to a bearish consolidation zone, opening the door to deeper losses. If it holds however, the latest dip could offer an entry point for buyers at a more reasonable valuation than two months ago. It all comes down to whether massive AI spending is matching demand.

Microsoft’s latest earnings warned of slowing cloud revenue, triggering yesterday’s selloff. But is the slowdown temporary? Big Tech continues to pour money into AI infrastructure, AI companies and AI models — and all that data has to be stored somewhere. The question is: where?

Finally, a company that clearly missed the AI turn: Apple. Apple is nowhere to be found in the AI race. It has invested far less than peers, has no AI model, and opted instead to rely on Google’s Gemini.

That didn’t stop Apple from delivering strong holiday-quarter sales, which initially pushed the stock higher post-earnings in after-hours trading. But appetite faded quickly as investors worried that rising memory-chip prices could squeeze margins, regardless of Apple’s pricing power.

On the other side of the memory-chip trade, SK Hynix is up again — nearly 7% at the time of speaking. European futures are higher, US futures lower, reinforcing the idea that the rotation from US to non-US markets may continue into the weekly close.

And next week — it’s a new week.

In focus today

In the euro area, we receive the first January inflation reports from Germany and Spain. Euro area inflation is expected to decline to 1.7% y/y from 1.94% y/y in December, driven by significant energy base effects despite higher energy prices in January. However, numerous one-offs and policy changes influencing the data warrant a more cautious interpretation than usual.

We also get the first estimate of euro area GDP for Q4 2025, which is likely to show that the euro area ended the year on a solid growth momentum, with strong PMIs for Q4. Preliminary GDP release from Germany showed growth of 0.2% q/q as industrial activity rebounded. Combining these pieces of information, we expect the euro area Q4 GDP growth will come in at 0.3% q/q. We also get the unemployment rate for December which we expect to show a stable unemployment rate of 6.4%.

In the US, the delayed December PPI report is due, following CPI data that came in slightly below expectations. Senate Democrats have slowed progress on the appropriations bill to fund the government. If unresolved today, a partial shutdown could occur, though such situations are often resolved last minute.

In Norway, December retail sales are released. After rising 1.3% in November, we estimate a 0.5% decline in December, partly due to seasonal adjustment issues related to Black Week shifting Christmas trade.

In Sweden, focus turns to December retail sales and November wage growth. Retail sales likely declined in December after November's sharp rise driven by Black Week shopping. Wage growth remains steady at 3.6% y/y and is expected to hold.

In China, the official PMI data from NBS will be released on Saturday. Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the 50-mark in December, and we expect it to remain broadly stable in January, supported by strong exports.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the US, Donald Trump announced that he will name a replacement for Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed today, 30 January. There is significant focus on whether the pick would be more dovish and in alignment with Trump's administration. The shortlist reportedly includes Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hasset, Christopher Waller and Rick Rieder. While Rieder had been leading predictions in recent days, betting markets shifted yesterday, with Warsh now considered the favourite, holding a 92% probability on Polymarket.

Oil prices have increased lately with Brent crude benchmark trading at USD 69.75 this morning, after briefly reaching USD 70.75 overnight. The increase has been driven by weaker USD and markets increasingly pricing in a geopolitical risk premium, as tensions continue to build up in Iran. Yesterday, the EU agreed to hit Iran with sanctions, including the designation of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation. Additionally, overnight, Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a process for imposing tariffs on goods from countries that supply oil to Cuba.

What happened yesterday

In Norway, the unemployment rate (SA) from NAV surprised by falling to 2.1% in December, despite a clear downward trend in employment throughout Q4. While a slight drop in the labour force contributed, it cannot fully explain the decline. Our seasonal adjustment shows that unemployment was approximately 2.15% in both November and December, so that most of the fall was due to rounding. For January, we expect the unemployment rate (SA) to remain unchanged at 2.1%, with a risk that it will rise to 2.2%.

In Sweden, the Riksbank left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, as widely expected. The Riksbank reiterated that "the rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come", as it assesses that the current rate supports economic activity strengthening and stabilizes inflation around the target over the longer term. For more details, see Riksbank review: January 2026, 29 January. Meanwhile, the NIER survey weakened slightly but remained solid, with minor changes from the previous month. Household sentiment continues to drag the indicator lower, while the corporate outlook remains strong. Notably, recent hard data shows a pickup in consumption.

In Germany, data from the Ministry of Finance showed that public investments fell 25% short of the target in 2025. Total public investments amounted to EUR 86.8bn in 2025 which was 17% higher than in 2024 but at the same time 25% below the targeted EUR 115.6bn. Defence expenditures amounted to EUR 87.0bn in 2025 which was 18% more than in 2024 but 7% short of the EUR 94.0bn target. The failure to reach the targets is a slightly dovish signal for the ECB but not enough to cause a rate cut in 2026 as there is still a large increase in spending. For details, see German Fiscal Tracker, 29 January.

In the US, the Chicago Fed's latest unemployment rate 'nowcast' signals a potential dip to 4.3% in the upcoming January Jobs Report. High-frequency data has been generally positive as jobless claims continue to decline, ADP's weekly data indicates jobs growth during the reference period, and online job postings have modestly increased.

Equities: Thursday saw a reversal of some of this week's key trading themes. First, tech underperformed sharply, driven by Microsoft (-10%), with other software stocks also suffering, such as Zscaler and Strategy Inc. Semiconductors, however - which have been the outperformers lately - held up well in what was largely a software-related selloff. It is also worth adding that Meta jumped 10%. This was therefore not a broad-based tech selloff like last quarter, when AI capex was in focus. Again, remember that the previous tech selloff did not coincide with earnings reports but occurred a week later, so it is too soon to draw broad conclusions. As our readers know, we prefer riding the AI wave through Asia (the Kospi is up another 1% this morning) while remaining neutral on the global tech sector.

FI and FX: EUR/USD slid through the night and is currently trading in the low 1.19's. NOK had a strong first half of yesterday's session, under a lot of volatility. As SEK trading was muted on the back of an undramatic Riksbank, with the Swedish Krona holding steady we saw NOK/SEK edge higher through the day. The sharp rally in the oil market continued yesterday, with Brent trading at the highest levels since last summer. Yesterday also saw wild swings in the metals space, with copper rising 11% whilst the price of Gold saw a sudden and dramatic fall at 16:00 CET, before eventually recouping some of the losses. Finally, reports have it that Kevin Warsh is likely to be Trump's nominee as the next Fed chair, due to be announced today.

Key insights from the week that was.

In Australia, all eyes were on the Q4 CPI print ahead of next week’s RBA decision. In the event, inflation printed above our expectations on both a headline and trimmed mean basis, rising 0.6%qtr / 3.6%yr and 0.9%qtr / 3.4%yr respectively. There were a number of subplots in the detail: strong seasonal demand for domestic holiday travel (9.6%yr), rising gold and silver prices boosting accessories (11.4%yr), and rebate-driven volatility in electricity prices (21.5%yr). Policy changes and administered price increases also buoyed inflation across childcare, education, water rates and property charges. There was some evidence of disinflation too, mainly in home-building costs and rents where inflation looks to have peaked. Overall though, it appears services inflation remains ‘sticky’ well above target (4.1%yr) and that goods inflation is no longer providing a disinflationary offset (3.4%yr).

Following the CPI report, Chief Economist Luci Ellis issued a change of rate call, with Westpac now anticipating the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% at next week’s meeting. The RBA laid the groundwork for such a move in their communications over recent months in case of an upside surprise; and with two disappointing quarterly prints now received, there is little reason wait. How the policy outlook will evolve beyond February is set to depend on the response to the change in policy expectations and the economy’s capacity, particularly labour market participation. The RBA’s updated forecasts will shed more light on their baseline expectations and view of key risks; they are likely to continue to hold a relatively conservative view on supply and a cautious approach to communicating on the policy outlook.

The latest NAB business survey meanwhile reported a solid finish to 2025, the conditions and confidence indexes edging higher in December, consistent with other evidence of strengthening consumer demand. That said, the future path for inflation and interest rates is a clear threat to confidence in early-2026. Worthy of note too, perspectives differ across industries. In our latest Quarterly Agriculture Report, we discuss prospects for farm GDP following a bumper 2025.

In the US, the FOMC maintained its monetary policy stance at the January meeting as expected in a 10-2 vote, with Miran and Waller preferring to cut the fed funds rate by 25bps. The Committee’s assessment of the economy was positive for growth (characterising it as "solid") notwithstanding weakness in housing; sanguine on the labour market ("the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization") despite job gains having “remained low”; and cautious on inflation ("remains somewhat elevated").

The characterisation of risks was balanced, the statement simply noting that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated”, the “Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate” and "prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate". In the press conference, Chair Powell made it clear that policy will be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis on incoming data and did not show material concern over the potential evolution of conditions. Instead, risks were judged to have diminished.

Recent weakness in the US dollar was a key topic during the Q&A. Chair Powell made clear market movements do not dictate monetary policy, nor does the FOMC seek to manage the currency, with full employment and inflation-at-target their mandated focus. Chair Powell did not comment on recent tensions between the Administration and the Federal Reserve but took the opportunity to affirm the long-standing success of central bank independence and monetary / fiscal collaboration globally.

We expect one further cut from the FOMC in March to mitigate the lingering downside risks the labour market faces. But if activity growth proves stronger than expected at the beginning of 2026, the FOMC may skew their focus towards inflation risks, holding off on a further reduction in the fed funds rate.

Further north, the Bank of Canada also kept rates steady at 2.25%, maintaining an accommodative stance to support the economy as it navigates excess capacity and trade uncertainty. Governor Macklem noted that the “current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the [forecast] outlook …The Canadian economy is adjusting to the structural headwinds of US protectionism…[and] uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate.” We anticipate the Council will keep policy accommodative while headwinds persist.

USDCHF continues to extend lower, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend. The short-term Elliott Wave outlook suggests that the cycle from the November 25, 2025 high remains in progress as a five-wave impulse. This structure highlights persistent weakness and confirms that rallies are corrective rather than the start of a new bullish phase.

From the November 25 high, wave ((i)) concluded at 0.785. A corrective rally in wave ((ii)) then ended at 0.80408. The pair resumed its decline in wave ((iii)), which subdivides into another five-wave impulse of lesser degree. Within this sequence, wave (i) finished at 0.7876, while the rally in wave (ii) terminated at 0.7968. The market then accelerated lower in wave (iii), reaching 0.7602 before pausing.

Currently, wave (iv) is unfolding as a corrective rally. This move retraces the cycle from the January 22, 2025 high and is expected to develop in either three or seven swings. The projected target lies within the 0.776–0.783 zone, which represents the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave w. This area is identified as the blue box, a region where corrections often terminate.

From this zone, USDCHF faces two potential paths. The pair may resume its decline, continuing the larger bearish impulse. Alternatively, it may produce a three-wave pullback before turning higher again in larger correction In either case, the Elliott Wave structure favors the downside, reinforcing the view that rallies remain corrective and that the broader bearish cycle is not yet complete.

USDCHF 60 minute chart

USDCHF Elliott Wave video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPSEtXZxVEY

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY nosedived below 156.50 and 155.00.
• It tested 152.00, and any recovery above 154.00 could face hurdles.
• EUR/USD surged above 1.2000 before trimming some gains.
• GBP/USD started a consolidation phase above 1.3760.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a major decline below 158.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY settled below 157.00 to enter a bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 158.00 to start the recent downtrend. It settled below 156.50, the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour), and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

Finally, the pair dived below 153.50 and tested 152.00. A low was formed at 152.09, and the pair is now consolidating losses. Immediate resistance sits near 153.75.

The first key hurdle could be 154.00. The next stop for the bulls might be 154.80, where they could face hurdles. A close above 154.80 could open the doors for more gains. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward 156.50 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find support near 152.40. The first major area for the bulls might be near 152.00. The main support sits at 150.00, below which the pair could accelerate lower. The next support could be 146.50.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair extended gains and traded above 1.2000 before the bears appeared and pushed the pair to 1.1950.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US Producer Price Index for Dec 2025 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.2% previous.
• US Producer Price Index for Dec 2025 (YoY) – Forecast +2.7%, versus +3.0% previous.
• Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index for Jan 2026 – Forecast 44.0, versus 43.5 previous.

AUDUSD extended rally for nearly two weeks and hit three-year high on Thursday (0.7093), before easing.

Weakening US dollar and Aussie tracking strong rise in precious metals, were mainly behind the latest rally (up over 6% since the move started on Jan 19).

Bulls broke and established above psychological 0.70 level, but faced strong headwinds on approach to 0.7100 resistance, as daily studies are overbought and overstretched 14-d momentum turned south.

Thursday’s red daily candle with long upper shadow adds to signals of upside rejection and warning of pullback, as the US dollar jumps after steep fall in past four days.

Loss of initial supports at 0.70 zone (psychological / near Fibo 23.6% of 0.6667/0.7093) unmasks 0.6930 (Fibo 38.2%), with stronger acceleration lower to find solid ground at 0.6900/0.6880 zone (round-figure / 50% retracement) and mark a healthy correction before larger bulls regain control.

Caution on potential loss of 0.6880 handle, which may trigger deeper pullback and sideline bulls.

Res: 0.7015; 0.7093; 0.7157; 0.7207
Sup: 0.6968; 0.6930; 0.6880; 0.6830

• Silver, Gold were reaching new highs every day but saw a sudden top in today's action
• Post-FOMC rally gets tested, we observe if the trend can continue
• High timeframe analysis for XAG/USD, XAU/USD and XCU/USD (Copper)

If 2025 was volatile for metals, 2026 is starting with even greater intensity.

The global order is fracturing as historic allies clash and new conflicts appear imminent.

For metal maximalists, this confirms a long-held thesis. Decades of high deficits create predictable capital flows and supply shortages, which are now driving prices to daily records.

As geopolitical tensions rise, investors are rushing to commodities to hedge against supply shortages and inflation, a classic play.

Metals performance in 2026 – Source: TradingView

But today's flows feel different.

It is almost impossible to predict tops in such extreme, unidirectional trends. Some periods can be more favorable for squeezes. Some others are more favorable for rangebound conditions and selloffs.

And such periods tend to change at the beginning of the New Year, at the start of Quarters, Months, or even after FOMC meetings.

As the US President announced he will officially announce his decision on the Fed Chair next week, Markets are looking back at yesterday's Federal Reserve decision.

Higher rates for longer will be the way to go for the Fed until anything cracks, as the US Labor Market bounced back and the US economy is shining – Can't justify many cuts with that.

Today marked a brutal stalling in rallies throughout the Metals asset class.

Gold was trading 6% higher than the day before the FOMC, only to give up those gains in a 10% flash crash.

Similar flows occurred in Copper, Silver, Palladium, and Platinum, all dropping by 9% to 11%.

By the way, Copper spiked to new record highs in yesterday's evening session, reaching $6.52 per lb, but still lacking a more fundamental foundation to persistently elevated prices.

In the meantime, let's dive right into intraday timeframe analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) to spot where the session dynamic takes the price action. Is the trend challenged?

Gold (XAU/USD) 2H Chart and levels

Gold (XAU/USD) 2H Chart, January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView

This morning's action could pose a significant test to the 30% yearly run in the Bullion.

The current fundamentals are heavily backing the recent rise, particularly as it is far less extreme than the one seen in Silver for example.

Still, when profit-taking occurs so suddenly, traders can look around, question the current state of the Market and reassess if the trend can still hold.

Since the flash, prices have rebounded – Hence look at these two levels:

• Any retest of the all-time high ($5,600) should be followed with further upside. Particularly after a 4H candle close. Next areas of interest could be between $5,800 and $5,900.
• Any break and close below $5,100 can put the entire 2026 gains in challenge.
  • The 4H 50-period MA can act as a very interesting indicator for short-term momentum

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Current All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600
• Key Fibonacci Projection $5,800 to $5,900
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• $5,000 to $5,100 Major Psychological Pivot (Morning lows $5,100)
• $4,788 4H MA 200
• Pivotal Support $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish below
• Minor Support $3,880 to $4,050
• $3,200 to $3,500 Major Support
• $2,600 to $2,800 November 2024 Support
• $1,800 to $2,000 2022 to 2024 Range Support

Silver (XAG/USD) 2H Chart and levels

Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart, January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Evolving in a steep upward channel, Silver is testing its upper bound in high volatility consolidation.

Prices have maintained within a $107 to $120 range since Monday, hence trades will look for breakouts either to the upside or downside for future action.

Similarly as in Gold, look for a candle close above or below with high volumes to get confirmation.

A break lower could go test the Upward channel lower bounds, currently around $92.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $118 to $120 Current ATH Resistance
• Current Record $121.67
• Potential Resistance $125 to $127

Support Levels:

• Key Momentum Pivot and Range lows $100 to $104
• Higher Timeframe Pivotal Support $89 to $92
• 2025 HighsMini-Support $80 to $84
• Major 2026 Support $70 to $72
• December FOMC Major Support $58.00 to $60

Copper (XCU/USD) 2H Chart and levels

Copper (XCU/USD) 2H Chart, January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The recent moves are not particularly indicative of a trend-end but recent up and down action may precede doubts to the sustainability of the recent moves.

Copper spiked by 10% during overnight trading, corrects by a similar amount and is now holding tight at its January 14 record range ($6.00 to $6.10 Major Pivot).

• Holding above the Pivot keeps the trend intact and could lead to further highs with the next step between $6.90 to $7.00.
• Closing below the pivot would hint at a test of the $5.70 to $5.90 pivotal support.
  Any close below the Pivotal support would compromise the uptrend.

Current ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Current ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50
• $6.52 Current Record
• Potential Resistance $6.90 to $7.00

Support Levels:

• $6.00 to $6.10 Early Jan 2026 Record
• Pivotal Support $5.70 to $5.90 – Bullish above, Bearish Below
• Minor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40
• Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00 (50-Week MA)

Watch out for positioning and fast-paced moves!

January is already coming to an end and it has historically been the best month for Gold, Silver and Platinum. Keep a close eye to see if the rally holds the colder February ahead.

Safe Trades!

EURCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• EURCAD reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 1.6045

EURCAD currency pair recently reversed from the resistance area between the strong resistance level 1.63549 (upper border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from October), and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.

EURCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.6045 (which stopped the previous intermediate correction (4)).

NZDJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• NZDJPY reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 93.80

NZDJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support area between the key support level 91.75 (former top of wave i from the start of January), 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from November.

The upward reversal from this support area continues the active impulse waves iii, 3 and (5).

Given the strong daily uptrend and continuation of the widespread yen sales, NZDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 93.80 (which reversed the price earlier this month).