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Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.65; (P) 159.07; (R1) 159.43; More...

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after touching 158.55 support and focus is back on 159.84 temporary top. Above there will resume the rally from 152.25 to retest 161.94 high. Firm break there will confirm larger up trend resumption and target 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 158.55 should indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 159.74 at 156.87.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.70) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Markets traded in a subdued tone through most of the day, with investors largely sidelined ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. That calm was abruptly shattered as the US session began, with a sharp deterioration in risk sentiment accompanied by a broad rebound in Dollar and a selloff in equity futures.

The sudden shift was driven by a double shock. Oil prices surged after reports of Israeli and US air strikes targeting Iran’s South Pars gas field and the Asaluyeh energy complex in Bushehr Province, while US PPI data came in significantly stronger than expected, reinforcing inflation concerns just hours before the Fed decision.

The energy red line has been crossed

The strike on South Pars marks a critical escalation in the conflict. Until now, markets had largely assumed that core energy infrastructure—particularly assets of systemic global importance—would remain off-limits to avoid triggering a global economic shock. That assumption has now been broken.

By targeting Asaluyeh, the conflict has moved beyond proxy confrontations to direct hits on economic arteries. The development raises the risk that other key energy assets in the region, including those in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could come into scope, increasing the probability of broader supply disruptions.

The implications extend beyond global markets. South Pars accounts for roughly 70% of Iran’s domestic gas supply, and disrupting it during a period of conflict is likely to intensify internal pressure on the Iranian regime. Historically, such pressure has often led to more aggressive external responses, including threats to oil flows through the Gulf.

Inflation already accelerating before the first missile was fired

At the same time, inflation risks were already building even before the geopolitical shock. US PPI rose 0.7% mom in February, more than double expectations, while the annual rate accelerated to 3.4% yoy, the fastest pace in a year. The data signals that upstream price pressures were strengthening prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Importantly, the composition of the PPI report points to structural inflation. Gains were broad-based, with services leading but goods prices also rising sharply. Increases in tariffs, metals, and industrial inputs highlight that cost pressures are embedded across the production chain rather than driven by temporary factors.

This creates a more challenging backdrop for policymakers. If inflation was already accelerating before the war, the subsequent surge in energy prices—yet to be reflected in official data—suggests that the forward inflation path could be significantly higher. The Fed is therefore faced with inflation pressures that are both structural and geopolitical.

Market reaction reflects this repricing. Dollar has emerged as the strongest performer on the day. Commodity currencies show mixed performance, with Loonie supported by oil, but Aussie and Kiwi under pressure amid broader risk aversion.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.60%. DAX is down -0.52%. CAC is up 0.01%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.067 at 4.692. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.021 at 2.928. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 2.87%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.61%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.32%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.34%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.045 to 2.218.

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US PPI jumps 0.7% mom, services and goods both rise

US PPI beat expectations at 0.7% mom, with broad-based gains in services and goods pushing annual inflation to 3.4% yoy. Persistent core strength signals inflation risks are far from easing. Read more.

Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.9% in February as price pressures broaden

Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.9% yoy in February, while core rose to 2.4% yoy, led by strong services inflation. Persistent underlying pressures are likely to keep ECB cautious despite near-target headline CPI. Read more.

Swiss growth outlook cut as energy shock and strong Franc weigh on economy

Switzerland’s 2026 growth forecast was cut to 1.0% as rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on demand. Inflation is now seen slightly higher, while a strong franc and weak global outlook continue to drag on exports. Read more.

Japan trade data highlights diversification, shift away from China and U.S.

Japan’s exports rose 4.2% yoy in February, beating forecasts despite sharp declines in shipments to China and the U.S. Strong demand from Southeast Asia and Europe helped offset weakness, signaling a shift in trade dynamics. Read more.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.65; (P) 159.07; (R1) 159.43; More...

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after touching 158.55 support and focus is back on 159.84 temporary top. Above there will resume the rally from 152.25 to retest 161.94 high. Firm break there will confirm larger up trend resumption and target 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 158.55 should indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 159.74 at 156.87.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.70) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

US producer prices surprised to the upside in February, with PPI rising 0.7% mom, more than double expectations of 0.3% mom. The annual rate accelerated to 3.4% yoy from 2.9% yoy, marking the strongest pace since February 2025 and reinforcing signs that upstream inflation pressures are re-emerging.

The strength was broad-based but led by services, which accounted for more than half of the monthly increase with a 0.5% rise. Goods prices also showed notable momentum, climbing 1.1% mom, suggesting that both supply-side and demand-driven factors are contributing to the pickup in producer inflation. The breadth of the increase points to a more persistent inflation impulse rather than a one-off rebound.

Underlying measures also remained firm. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% mom, extending a streak of ten consecutive monthly increases. The annual rate held elevated at 3.5% yoy.

Full US PPI release here.

Key takeaways

• BoJ policy pause amid stagflation risks: The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75%, balancing rising inflation with slowing growth as higher oil prices from the US–Iran war in 2026 weigh on Japan’s economy and consumer confidence.
• Mixed macro signals but tightening bias intact: While weak equity performance (e.g., Nikkei 225 down ~9%) signals soft sentiment, improving wages and sticky inflation support expectations for at least one 25 bps rate hike in 2026.
• Yen under pressure near intervention zone: The USD/JPY is hovering around the 159.45–161.95 intervention risk zone, keeping markets cautious. A break below 157.50 could trigger near-term USD weakness, while continued yen depreciation raises the risk of official intervention.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 0. 75% when it concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday, 19 March 2026, as the current elevated oil prices due to a prolonged US-Iran conflict stoke stagflation risk.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is signaling a lackluster consumer confidence

Fig. 1: Nikkei 225 & major global benchmark stock indices from 27 Feb 2026 to 17 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

Japan is a major net oil importer, where it gets more than 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, hence, soaring oil prices are set to push up daily living costs in Japan, in turn, dampen consumer and business confidence, and eventually slow down economic growth.

This negative feedback loop is at play, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 is the second-worst-performing global benchmark stock index, that shed -9% since the start of the US-Iran war as of Tuesday, 17 March 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Japan’s real wages rose for the first time in January 2026

Fig. 2: Key economic data that BoJ monitors as of Jan-Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

In a parliamentary speech on Tuesday, BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the 2% target. In addition, Ueda mentioned that wages and prices are rising moderately together, as companies become more willing to pass on higher input and labour costs.

Before the US-Iran war, Japan’s real wages rose for the first time in 13 months in January to hit a growth rate of 1.40% y/y (see Fig 2). Also, Japan’s large corporations are expected to offer wage increases of 5% or more for the third consecutive year after the conclusion of this year’s annual spring wage talks on Wednesday.

BoJ is still expecting to hike by 25 bps in 2026

Fig. 3: Japan overnight indexed swap rates as of 17 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

The interest rate swap market in Japan is still implying BoJ is looking to hike its policy rate by at least 25 basis points in 2026. The 1-year overnight indexed swap rate has held steady at 1% and increased slightly to 1.03% as of Tuesday, 17 March 2026, and is also above the 1-month overnight indexed swap rate quoted at 0.74% (see Fig. 3).

BoJ Governor’s press conference will be in focus as USD/JPY hovers at 159.45/161.95 key intervention risk zone

Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 18 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference after the monetary policy decision will be at 3.30 p.m. (Tokyo time) on Thursday, 19 March 2026.

Ueda will elaborate on the BoJ’s reasoning behind the current policy decision, and in the past press conferences, Ueda tends to paint a balancing act and tilt towards a dovish stance, in turn, often weakening the Japanese yen thereafter.

However, this time round it might be different as the yen has weakened significantly since the onset of the US-Iran war, where it hit almost a 20-month low against the US dollar at 159.75 on last Friday, 13 March 2026, slightly above the previous intervention level of 159.45, where Japanese authorities sold the US dollar and brought back the yen on 12 July 2024.

The USD/JPY is now trading at 159.00 at this time of writing. Hence, short-term speculators are likely to be cautious about taking aggressive yen short positions as the USD/JPY continues to fluctuate around the key intervention risk zone of 159.45/161.95 (see Fig. 4).

Short-term US dollar bears may get traction if USD/JPY breaks below the key near-term support of 157.50 (also the 20-day moving average) to trigger a potential minor decline towards the next support at 154.65 (23 February 2026 swing low and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from the 12 February 2026 low to 13 March 2026 high) (see Fig. 4).

EUR/USD is attempting a recovery wave from the 1.1400 zone. USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.7900 before it started a downside correction.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro declined toward 1.1400 before it started a recovery wave against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1500 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.7850 and 0.7900 before it faced hurdles.
• There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at 0.7870 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair extended the decline below 1.1500. The Euro even declined below 1.1440 before the bulls appeared against the US Dollar.

The pair tested 1.1410 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above 1.1450 and 1.1480. The pair climbed above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1667 swing high to the 1.1410 low.

More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1500. The pair is now trading above 1.1520 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Immediate hurdle on the EUR/USD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.1570.

The first key breakout zone sits at 1.1605. An upside break above 1.1605 might send the pair toward 1.1665. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1700 zone. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find bids near 1.1505.

The next major support is 1.1470. A downside break below 1.1470 could send the pair toward 1.1410. Any more losses might send the pair to 1.1360.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from 0.7750. The US Dollar climbed above the 0.7800 handle against the Swiss Franc.

The bulls were able to pump the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.7850. Finally, the pair tested 0.7920. A high was formed near 0.7923 and the pair is now correcting some gains. The pair dipped below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7748 swing low to the 0.7923 high.

Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line at 0.7870. On the downside, immediate support on the USD/CHF chart is near the 50% Fib retracement at 0.7835. The first key area of interest might be 0.7790.

A downside break below 0.7790 might call for a drop to 0.7750. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward 0.7720.

On the upside, the pair could struggle near 0.7875. The first major barrier for bulls is 0.7890. If there is a clear break above 0.7890 and the RSI climbs above 50, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.7925.

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Today, the focus for FX traders is on the Federal Reserve: at 21:00 GMT+3, the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision (rates are expected to remain unchanged), followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell half an hour later.

In addition:

• → the Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision today;
• → similar events are scheduled tomorrow for the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England.

As the DXY chart shows, the index is currently trading near the median of an upward channel that has remained in place since early February — a zone where supply and demand typically balance each other. However, incoming central bank announcements are likely to disrupt this equilibrium.

Technical Analysis of DXY

On the morning of 13 March, when analysing the DXY chart, we:

• → noted that the market appeared overbought, with price trading above the upper boundary of the channel;
• → suggested that a pullback could develop.

Indeed, subsequent price action showed signs of bearish pressure:

• → the formation of a “head and shoulders” (H&S) reversal pattern;
• → a bull trap above the psychological 100-point level.

It is reasonable to assume that the FX market is currently awaiting a crucial wave of fundamental information from central banks, which is particularly significant given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility in the near term — the dollar index may move towards one of the channel boundaries depending on how the market reacts to upcoming news.

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Yesterday, BTC/USD rose above the $75k level, thereby setting a new high for March. The last time Bitcoin traded at such levels was in early February.

Why is Bitcoin Rising?

Bitcoin’s appeal appears to be increasing due to a combination of factors, including:

• → ongoing military conflict in the Middle East;
• → expectations of rising inflation and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

According to on-chain data, March has seen capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, media reports indicate that major corporate players (notably MicroStrategy) have purchased approximately $1.57 billion worth of Bitcoin, creating strong organic demand.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD

On 5 March, when analysing Bitcoin’s price movements within a broad descending channel, we:

• → noted that the bullish impulse at the beginning of March led to a breakout above the QL resistance line, as well as the psychological $70k level;
• → highlighted that the median line M could act as a barrier to further gains;
• → suggested a potential pullback scenario.

Indeed, since then (as shown by the red trajectory), Bitcoin has undergone a fairly deep correction, reversing lower from the M line. Notably, the QL line subsequently acted as support.

Trading volume analysis (based on Coinbase data) shows that:

• → on 13 March, bearish activity intensified, resulting in a long upper wick on a high-volume candle;
• → on 15–16 March, the price advanced alongside rising volumes, with candles closing near their highs.

This can be interpreted as strengthening demand: buyers are pushing sellers out of the $70–72k zone, which may serve as support in the near term.

Given the above, a continued upside scenario cannot be ruled out, in which Bitcoin maintains an upward trajectory within the blue channel.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Eurozone inflation edged higher in February, with headline CPI finalized at 1.9% yoy, up from January’s 1.7% yoy. Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, also firmed to 2.4% yoy from 2.2% yoy.

The composition of inflation highlights a clear shift toward domestically driven pressures. Services were the dominant contributor, adding 1.54 percentage points to the annual rate, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco at 0.48 pp and non-energy industrial goods at 0.17 pp. In contrast, energy continued to act as a drag, subtracting -0.30 pp.

Across the broader EU, CPI was finalized at 2.1% yoy, up from 2.0% yoy in January, though regional disparities remain wide. Inflation ranged from just 0.5% in Denmark to as high as 8.3% in Romania, while price growth rose in twelve member states and fell in eleven.

Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.1532 on Wednesday, with markets adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision.

The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Investor attention will focus on Jerome Powell’s comments, particularly on how oil market volatility may influence the policy outlook.

Rising energy prices are increasing inflation risks, while labour market signals remain mixed and offer little guidance on rates. Markets do not expect policy easing before September or October and are currently pricing in just one rate cut before year-end.

Geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. Iran is intensifying attacks on the region’s energy infrastructure, while US allies have not supported Donald Trump’s call to ensure shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1536. A move higher towards 1.1600 is expected as a near-term target, followed by a potential pullback to 1.1539. Technically, the MACD supports this scenario: its signal line remains below zero but is pointing firmly upwards, indicating building bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is developing the next upward leg towards 1.1596. After reaching this level, a decline to 1.1530 is expected, followed by a renewed advance towards 1.1650. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this structure, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains in a holding pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, with markets awaiting Powell’s assessment of how oil market volatility may shape the policy path. With only one rate cut now priced in before year-end and Middle East tensions showing no signs of easing, the dollar’s near-term direction will depend on whether the Fed signals patience or heightened concern over inflation. Technical indicators point to scope for a short-term rebound, though the broader trend will be determined by the tone of Wednesday’s announcement.

Switzerland’s economic outlook has been revised slightly lower as the fallout from the Middle East conflict continues to ripple through global markets. The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles now expects GDP growth of 1.0% in 2026, down from the previous 1.1% forecast, reflecting below-average expansion. Growth is still projected to recover to 1.7% in 2027, but the near-term outlook has clearly softened amid rising uncertainty.

The key driver behind the downgrade is the sharp increase in energy prices since late February. Higher oil prices are not only lifting inflation expectations globally but also weighing on consumption and business sentiment. In Switzerland, inflation is now expected to come in slightly higher at 0.4% in 2026, compared to the earlier estimate of 0.2%.

At the same time, Switzerland’s export sector continues to face headwinds from subdued global demand and the strength of the Swiss Franc. These factors are dampening investment activity and limiting growth momentum in exposed industries.

Looking ahead, conditions are expected to improve gradually in 2027 as global demand recovers, particularly in Europe, with Germany’s stabilization likely to provide some support. However, the near-term outlook remains constrained by external risks and currency strength.

Full Swiss SECO release here.