Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0282; (P) 1.0308; (R1) 1.0352; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and further fall is expected with 1.0359 minor resistance intact. Corrective rebound from 0.9970 should have completed with three waves up to 1.0513, after rejection by 1.0505 key resistance. Below 1.0228 will target 1.0086 support. Firm break there will bring retest of 0.9970 low. However, break of 1.0359 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger recovery back towards 1.0513 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0602; (P) 1.0650 (R1) 1.0739; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.0348 short term bottom is in progress for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0760). Break there will target 1.0935 resistance next. On the downside, however, below 1.0532 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0348 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case and bring medium term corrective rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2509; (P) 1.2555; (R1) 1.2633; More..

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.2637 will confirm short term bottoming at 1.2154. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2775). On the downside, below 1.2329 minor support will bring retest of 1.2154 first. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4248.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) at least at the same degree as the rise from 1.1409 (2020 low). That is, fall from 1.4248 could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409, or resuming the longer term down trend. In either case, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2999 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9607; (P) 0.9679; (R1) 0.9728; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.9595) and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.9193 to 1.0063 at 0.9525 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9763 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 1.0306, which is close to 1.0342 (2016 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9459 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.34; (P) 127.70; (R1) 128.25; More...

USD/JPY's correction from 131.34 is still in progress and deeper fall could be seen to 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86). But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7060; (P) 0.7093; (R1) 0.7143; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 0.6828 short term bottom would target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7180). Break there will target 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2742; (P) 1.2796; (R1) 1.2824; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. Also, with 1.2712 support intact, further rally is still mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3075 will resume the rise from 1.2401. Sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2712 support will indicate rejection by 1.3022 key fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper decline back to 1.2401 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

The moves in the financial markets are so far rather indecisive. While US stocks rebounded overnight, Asian indexes turned softer. Dollar and Yen are recovering slightly after yesterday's selloff. Commodity currencies are retreating. European majors are mixed. While Euro and Sterling advanced against the greenback, there is no follow through buying so far.

Technically, EUR/USD should have at least made a near term bottom at 1.0348, ahead of 2017 low. To secure further buying in Euro, 1.0359 minor resistance in EUR/CHF and 138.33 resistance in EUR/JPY need to be taken out too. Or, to confirm Dollar's broad based reversal, 1.2637 resistance in GBP/USD and 1.2712 support in USD/CAD need to be violated. Let's see which way it goes, or both.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.80%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.55%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.24%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.09%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0088 at 0.232. Overnight, DOW rose 1.98%. S&P 500 rose 1.86%. NASDAQ rose 1.59%. 10-year yield rose 0.072 to 2.859.

Fed Bostic: A pause in September might make sense

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday that he backed the plan of raising interest rate by 50bps in June and July. But a "pause" in September is also in his baseline view.

"I'm at 50 basis points as long as the economy proceeds as I think it's going to," Bostic said. "If inflation starts moving in a different direction than it is right now, I'd have to be open to us moving more aggressively. I do want to make it clear that nothing is off the table. As we go through the months, we will see how it plays out."

"I have got a baseline view where for me I think a pause in September might make sense," Bostic told reporters Monday following a speech to the Rotary Club of Atlanta. "After we get through the summer and we think about where we are in terms of policy, I think a lot of it will depend on the on-the-ground dynamics that we are starting to see. My motto is observe and adapt."

Fed George: Interest rate to be in neighborhood of 2% by Aug

Kansas City Fed President Esther George said, "I expect that further rate increases could put the federal funds rate in the neighborhood of 2% by August, a significant pace of change in policy settings". Then, "evidence that inflation is clearly decelerating will inform judgments about further tightening."

"The inflation we are now experiencing is obviously both too high and too broad to dismiss. The central bank's job is to prevent persistent imbalances from feeding into inflation and unmooring inflation expectations," she said. "By influencing interest rates, the Federal Reserve primarily affects the demand side of the imbalance. The evolution of its efforts alongside other factors will affect the course of monetary policy, requiring continuous and careful monitoring."

Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 53.2 in May, services rose to 51.7

Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly from 53.5 to 53.2 in May, below expectation of 53.8. PMI services rose from 50.7 to 51.7. PMI Composite ticked up from 51.1 to 51.4.

Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

""Private sector firms reported that the reduced impact of COVID-19 had lifted services activity, most notably in the tourism sector as pandemic-related restrictions were eased further. That said, the renewed introduction of lockdown measures across China and economic sanctions placed on Russia amid the Ukraine war had exacerbated supply chain disruptions, with greater reports of material shortages and severe delivery delays.

"As a result, there was a further intensification in price pressures across the private sector, as firms reported series-record rises in both input and output prices. Moreover, uncertainty regarding the outlook for price and supply conditions dampened business confidence, which was at its softest since August 2021."

Australia PMI composite dropped to 52.5 in Apr, still a solid expansion

Australia PMI Manufacturing dropped from 58.8 to 55.3 in May. PMI Services dropped from 56.1 to 53.0. PMI Composite dropped from 55.9 to 52.5. All are 4-month lows.

Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

"The expansion of the Australian economy continued in May at a solid pace... Although manufacturing output was affected by issues of COVID-19 disruptions and poor weather conditions, manufacturing demand remained robust, which had been a reassuring sign.

"Persistent supply chain constraints continue to pose challenges for firms in the private sector, both in terms of input acquisition and price fluctuations. Anecdotal evidence also suggested that firms are concerned with the rising interest rate outlook and the effect on their businesses, all of which are worth monitoring moving ahead."

New Zealand retail sales dropped -0.5% qoq in Q1, ex-auto sales flat

New Zealand retail sales volume (with price effects removed) dropped -0.5% qoq in Q1, much worse than expectation of 0.4% qoq. Ex-auto sales volume was flat, below expectation of 0.4% qoq. Total value of retail sales rose 0.5% qoq.

12 of the 16 regions showed higher sales values. By region, the largest changes in sales values were in: Auckland – up 3.6% (NZD 387m); Waikato – up 4.2% (NZD 109m); Canterbury – up 1.9% (NZD 70m); Wellington – up 2.3% (NZD 63m).

Looking ahead

PMI from Eurozone, UK and US are the main focuses for today. US will also release new home sales.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2742; (P) 1.2796; (R1) 1.2824; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. Also, with 1.2712 support intact, further rally is still mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3075 will resume the rise from 1.2401. Sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2712 support will indicate rejection by 1.3022 key fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper decline back to 1.2401 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Economic Indicators Update

Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly from 53.5 to 53.2 in May, below expectation of 53.8. PMI services rose from 50.7 to 51.7. PMI Composite ticked up from 51.1 to 51.4.

Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

""Private sector firms reported that the reduced impact of COVID-19 had lifted services activity, most notably in the tourism sector as pandemic-related restrictions were eased further. That said, the renewed introduction of lockdown measures across China and economic sanctions placed on Russia amid the Ukraine war had exacerbated supply chain disruptions, with greater reports of material shortages and severe delivery delays.

"As a result, there was a further intensification in price pressures across the private sector, as firms reported series-record rises in both input and output prices. Moreover, uncertainty regarding the outlook for price and supply conditions dampened business confidence, which was at its softest since August 2021."

Full release here.

Australia PMI Manufacturing dropped from 58.8 to 55.3 in May. PMI Services dropped from 56.1 to 53.0. PMI Composite dropped from 55.9 to 52.5. All are 4-month lows.

Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

"The expansion of the Australian economy continued in May at a solid pace... Although manufacturing output was affected by issues of COVID-19 disruptions and poor weather conditions, manufacturing demand remained robust, which had been a reassuring sign.

"Persistent supply chain constraints continue to pose challenges for firms in the private sector, both in terms of input acquisition and price fluctuations. Anecdotal evidence also suggested that firms are concerned with the rising interest rate outlook and the effect on their businesses, all of which are worth monitoring moving ahead."

Full release here.