Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0438; (P) 1.0467; (R1) 1.0526; More....

EUR/CHF's rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 0.9970 to 1.0086 from 1.0400 at 1.0516. This is close to long term resistance level at 1.0505. Sustained break of 1.0505/16 will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection at 1.0782. On the downside, below 1.0400 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.83; (P) 161.01; (R1) 161.85; More...

GBP/JPY is staying in corrective pattern from 168.40 and intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 159.59 will extend the correction from 168.40 lower. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 150.95 to 168.40 at 157.61 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 168.40 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.03; (P) 137.67; (R1) 138.28; More....

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 139.99 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 124.37 to 139.99 at 134.02 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 139.99 will resume larger up trend for 144.06 medium term projection level.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06. In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 124.37 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8531; (P) 0.8551; (R1) 0.8586; More...

EUR/GBP lost momentum after hitting 0.8590 and intraday bias is turn neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen but outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8465 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8590 will resume the rise from 0.8210 medium term bottom to 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.8201, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Rise from there could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. In either case, further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9003.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4992; (P) 1.5099; (R1) 1.5303; More...

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.4138 resumed by breaking through 1.5053 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside with focus on 1.5354 cluster resistance (100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5053 from 1.4597 at 1.5332. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 1.4138 low at a later stage. But firm break of 1.5332/54 will argue that the larger trend is reversing. Next target is 161.8% projection at 1.5786 first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

The markets are still staying in overall risk-off mode this week so far, with selloff in stocks, gold, oil and cryptos. Commodity currencies are trading broadly lower as as result, led by Aussie. Dollar and Yen are generally firmer, but they're outshone by the surprisingly resilient Euro, and to a lesser extent Sterling.

Technically, with the addition help of extended rally in EUR/CHF, Euro is making some progresses in turning around. EUR/CAD is now in a near term rebound for 38.2% retracement of 1.4633 to 1.3383 at 1.3861. Sustained break there will raise the chance of medium term bottoming at 1.3383. Nevertheless, EUR/USD will also need to break through 1.0756 resistance to confirm the overall upside momentum in Euro. A break through 1.0470 low in EUR/USD could quickly drag EUR/CAD back to 1.3383 low instead.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.87%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.83%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.17%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.32%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0013 at 0.252. Overnight, DOW dropped -1.99%. S&P 500 dropped -3.20%. NASDAQ dropped -4.29%. 10-year yield dropped -0.044 to 3.079.

BoJ Uchida: Important to continue with powerful monetary easing

BoJ Executive Director Shinichi Uchida told the parliament today, "Japan's economy is still in the midst of recovering from the pandemic's impact. It is recently under pressure from rising commodity prices... It's therefore important for the BOJ to continue supporting economic activity with powerful monetary easing." He also said BoJ has no plan to adjust the 50bps band allowed for 10-year JGB yield to fluctuate around 0%.

Separately, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said after a cabinet meeting, "stability is important and rapid moves as seen recently are undesirable," referring to Yen's exchange rate. But he emphasized that any actions would follow the practice agreed with G7 partners.

Also from Japan, overall household spending dropped -2.3% yoy in March, versus expectation of -2.8% yoy.

Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 10 in Apr, conditions rose to 20

Australia NAB business confidence dropped from 16 to 10 in April. Business conditions rose from 15 to 20. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 23 to 27. Profitability conditions rose from 12 to 22. Employment conditions were unchanged at 10.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said: "Price growth eased somewhat in the April survey after hitting record rates in March, but remained high when looking at the history of the survey, supporting our expectation that inflation will remain elevated in Q2 and likely Q3.

"Still, the strong business conditions including trading conditions and profitability show that the economy is faring quite well and so far, demand is holding up in the face of higher inflation."

NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY extending correction on risk aversion

NZD/JPY dived lower this week as risk aversion dominated the markets. It is now extending the fall from 87.33 top towards 100% projection of 87.33 to 83.28 from 84.81 at 80.76. Such decline is currently still seen as a correction only. Hence, strong support is expected from 80.76 to contain downside to bring rebound. But break of 84.81 resistance is still needed to confirm completion of the fall, otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Similarly, AUD/JPY is also extending the fall from 95.73 and should target 100% projection of 95.73 to 90.41 from 94.00 at 88.68. Strong support is expected from this level to complete the correction. But break of 94.00 resistance is needed to confirmation completion of the correction, or risk will stay on the downside. too.

Looking ahead

Germany ZEW economic sentiment is featured in European session with Italy industrial output too. US will release NFIB business optimism index later in the day.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4992; (P) 1.5099; (R1) 1.5303; More...

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.4138 resumed by breaking through 1.5053 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside with focus on 1.5354 cluster resistance (100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5053 from 1.4597 at 1.5332. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 1.4138 low at a later stage. But firm break of 1.5332/54 will argue that the larger trend is reversing. Next target is 161.8% projection at 1.5786 first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Economic Indicators Update

DXY:

On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance in line with the swing high resistance to our 1st support where the 50% Fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 104.094
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 103.221

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 1887 where the horizontal pullback resistance is to our 1st support at 1832 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the horizontal pullback resistance is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st Resistance at 1887
• H4 time frame, 1st Support at 1832

GBP/USD:

On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 1.24327 where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and pullback resistance is to our 1st support at 1.22709 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the horizontal pullback resistance is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance at 1.24327
• H4 1st support at 1.22709

USD/CHF:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.99411 where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension is from our 1st support at 0.98405 in line with the horizontal pullback support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

Areas of consideration

• 1st support level at 0.98405
• 1st resistance level at 0.99411

EUR/USD :

On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 1.06194 to our 1st support at 1.04994 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension is.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st resistance at 1.06194
• H4 1st support at 1.04994

USD/JPY:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 131.240 where the swing high resistance is from our 1st support at 129.028 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support where the horizontal swing low support is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 131.240
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 129.028

AUD/USD:

On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 0.70354 where the pullback resistance is to our 1st support at 0.62205 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the horizontal pullback resistance is.

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st resistance at 0.70354
• H4 1st support at 0.69629

NZD/USD:

On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 0.63986 where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st support at 0.62579 in line with the 200% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.62579
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.63986

USD/CAD:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1.30780 where the 78.6% Fibonacci projection is from our 1st support at 1.29118 in line with the horizontal pullback support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support where the horizontal pullback support is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.30780
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.29118

OIL:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 101.19 where the pullback resistance is from our 1st support at 96.92 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support where the horizontal pullback support is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 101.19
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 96.92

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 32447 where the horizontal pullback resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st support at 31900 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the horizontal pullback resistance.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 32447
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 31900

NZD/JPY dived lower this week as risk aversion dominated the markets. It is now extending the fall from 87.33 top towards 100% projection of 87.33 to 83.28 from 84.81 at 80.76. Such decline is currently still seen as a correction only. Hence, strong support is expected from 80.76 to contain downside to bring rebound. But break of 84.81 resistance is still needed to confirm completion of the fall, otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Similarly, AUD/JPY is also extending the fall from 95.73 and should target 100% projection of 95.73 to 90.41 from 94.00 at 88.68. Strong support is expected from this level to complete the correction. But break of 94.00 resistance is needed to confirmation completion of the correction, or risk will stay on the downside. too.

Australia NAB business confidence dropped from 16 to 10 in April. Business conditions rose from 15 to 20. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 23 to 27. Profitability conditions rose from 12 to 22. Employment conditions were unchanged at 10.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said: "Price growth eased somewhat in the April survey after hitting record rates in March, but remained high when looking at the history of the survey, supporting our expectation that inflation will remain elevated in Q2 and likely Q3.

"Still, the strong business conditions including trading conditions and profitability show that the economy is faring quite well and so far, demand is holding up in the face of higher inflation."

Full release here.

BoJ Executive Director Shinichi Uchida told the parliament today, "Japan's economy is still in the midst of recovering from the pandemic's impact. It is recently under pressure from rising commodity prices... It's therefore important for the BOJ to continue supporting economic activity with powerful monetary easing." He also said BoJ has no plan to adjust the 50bps band allowed for 10-year JGB yield to fluctuate around 0%.

Separately, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said after a cabinet meeting, "stability is important and rapid moves as seen recently are undesirable," referring to Yen's exchange rate. But he emphasized that any actions would follow the practice agreed with G7 partners.