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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2779; (P) 1.2816; (R1) 1.2855; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.2401 should target 1.2899 resistance. Break there will target 1.3022 fibonacci level next. On the downside, however, break of 1.2683 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7088; (P) 0.7140; (R1) 0.7178; More...

AUD/USD's fall resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development argues that larger correction from 0.8006 is in its third leg. Fall from 0.7660 should target 0.6966 low next. On the upside, above 0.7228 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Break of 0.7164 will suggest that such correction is still in progress, with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Next target will be 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0498; (P) 1.0577 (R1) 1.0638; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Sustained break of 100% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0495 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.0069. On the upside, above 1.0654 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited by 1.0756 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1185 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2499; (P) 1.2550; (R1) 1.2598; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current down trend should target 161.8% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2258. On the upside, above 1.2601 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.2999 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248, ahead 1.4376 long term resistance (2018 high). Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3158 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9635; (P) 0.9669; (R1) 0.9722; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target next projection level at 0.9864. On the downside, below 0.9631 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained above 0.9459 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 0.9864. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.9459 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.39; (P) 127.99; (R1) 129.03; More...

USD/JPY's up trend resumed by breaking through 129.39 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Immediate focus is now on 130.04 long term projection level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 121.27 to 129.39 from 126.91 at 131.92, and then 100% projection at 135.03. On the downside, break of 126.91 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 100% project at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Yen falls broadly in Asian session today after BoJ stands pat and even maintains a dovish bias. 10-year JGB yield also tumbles after BoJ reiterates the pledged to defend the cap. Dollar, on the other hand, rises broadly, and it's trading as the strongest one for the week so far. Euro and Sterling are the worst performers for the moment but selloff is picking up in Aussie and Kiwi too.

Technically, Gold's decline finally resumed with some conviction. Fall from 1998.23 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2070.06 high. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1911.07 minor resistance holds. Next target is 100% projection of 2070.06 to 1889.79 from 1998.23 at 1817.98. The development affirms broad based strength in Dollar.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.52%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.22%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.25%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.19%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0252 at 0.225. Overnight, DOW rose 0.19%. S&P 500 rose 0.21%. NASDAQ dropped -0.01%. 10-year yield rose 0.046 to 2.818.

BoJ stands pat, maintains dovish bias

BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, by 8-1 vote, with dove Goushi Kataoka dissented again. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.10%. 10-year JGB yield target is kept at around 0%, without upper limit on JGB purchases. BoJ also clarified that it will offer to purchase 10-year JGBs at 0.25$ every business day through fixed-rate purchase operations.

The central bank also reiterated that it will "expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner."

It also pledged that it "will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary; it also expects short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels."

In the new economic projections, GDP is forecast to grow:

• 2.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised down from 3.8%)
• 1.9% in fiscal 2023 (revised up from 1.1%)
• 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

CPI (all items less fresh food) is expected to be at:

• 1.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised up from 1.1%).
• 1.1% in fiscal 2023 (unchanged).
• 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

Also released from Japan, industrial production rose 0.3% mom in March, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Retail sales rose 0.9% yoy in march, below expectation of 0.4% yoy.

New Zealand ANZ business confidence ticked down to -42 in Apr

New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped slightly from -41.9 to -42.0 in April. Own activity outlook rose from 3.3 to 8.0. Export intentions rose from 7.9 to 9.5. Investment intentions dropped from 5.2 to 3.1. Employment intentions dropped from 12.3 to 9.4. Cost expectations dropped from 95.9 to 95.5. Inflation expectations rose further from 5.51 to 5.92.

ANZ said: "With plenty of wage and other cost inflation in the pipeline, it'll be some time before the RBNZ can conclude that they're getting ahead of the inflation game. We continue to expect another 50bp hike in May, and steady 25bp increases thereafter taking the OCR to a peak of 3.5%."

NZ goods exports rose 17% yoy in Mar, imports rose 25% yoy

New Zealand goods exports rose 17% yoy to NZD 6.7B in March. Goods imports rose 25% yoy to NZD 7.1B. Trade balance was a deficit of NZD -392m, versus expectation of NZD -648m.

As a result of the monthly deficit in March 2022, the annual goods trade deficit has further widened to reach NZD -9.1B for the March 2022 year.

Looking ahead

Germany CPI flash is a focus in European session. Eurozone will release economic sentiment indicator. ECB will publish monthly bulletin. Later in the day, US advance GDP will be the main focus, together with jobless claims.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.39; (P) 127.99; (R1) 129.03; More...

USD/JPY's up trend resumed by breaking through 129.39 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Immediate focus is now on 130.04 long term projection level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 121.27 to 129.39 from 126.91 at 131.92, and then 100% projection at 135.03. On the downside, break of 126.91 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 100% project at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Economic Indicators Update

BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, by 8-1 vote, with dove Goushi Kataoka dissented again. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.10%. 10-year JGB yield target is kept at around 0%, without upper limit on JGB purchases. BoJ also clarified that it will offer to purchase 10-year JGBs at 0.25% every business day through fixed-rate purchase operations.

The central bank also reiterated that it will "expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner."

It also pledged that it "will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary; it also expects short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels."

In the new economic projections, GDP is forecast to grow:

• 2.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised down from 3.8%)
• 1.9% in fiscal 2023 (revised up from 1.1%)
• 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

CPI (all items less fresh food) is expected to be at:

• 1.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised up from 1.1%).
• 1.1% in fiscal 2023 (unchanged).
• 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

Full statement here.

Full Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices here.

New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped slightly from -41.9 to -42.0 in April. Own activity outlook rose from 3.3 to 8.0. Export intentions rose from 7.9 to 9.5. Investment intentions dropped from 5.2 to 3.1. Employment intentions dropped from 12.3 to 9.4. Cost expectations dropped from 95.9 to 95.5. Inflation expectations rose further from 5.51 to 5.92.

ANZ said: "With plenty of wage and other cost inflation in the pipeline, it'll be some time before the RBNZ can conclude that they're getting ahead of the inflation game. We continue to expect another 50bp hike in May, and steady 25bp increases thereafter taking the OCR to a peak of 3.5%."

Full release here.

New Zealand goods exports rose 17% yoy to NZD 6.7B in March. Goods imports rose 25% yoy to NZD 7.1B. Trade balance was a deficit of NZD -392m, versus expectation of NZD -648m.

As a result of the monthly deficit in March 2022, the annual goods trade deficit has further widened to reach NZD -9.1B for the March 2022 year.

Full release here.