Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4460; (P) 1.4611; (R1) 1.4691; More...

EUR/AUD's strong break of 1.4533 support confirms resumption of larger down trend. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3624 long term support next. On the upside, break of 1.4940 resistance is now needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0135; (P) 1.0188; (R1) 1.0220; More....

EUR/CHF's break of 1.0184 minor support argues that rebound from 0.9970 has completed at 1.0400 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9970 at 1.0420. Rejection by 55 day EMA also revives near term bearishness. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for retesting 0.9970 low. On the upside however, above 1.0242 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. In any case, sustained break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0937; (P) 1.0996 (R1) 1.1031; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.0943 minor support intact, rebound from 1.0805 could still extend higher. Break of 1.1184 resistance will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.0805 at 1.1363. However, break of 1.0943 will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.0805 low first. Further break of 1.0805 will resume larger down trend from 1.2348.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3093; (P) 1.3115; (R1) 1.3137; More...

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2999 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is mildly in favor with 1.3297 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 1.2999 will resume larger down trend from 1.4248. However, firm break of 1.3297 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248. Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3748 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9246; (P) 0.9264; (R1) 0.9282; More....

USD/CHF is still extending the consolidation from 0.9193 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is expected with 0.9380 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.9193 will resume the decline from 0.9459 to 0.9149 support. Firm break there will turn near term outlook bearish for 0.9090 support and below. On the upside, above 0.9380 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 0.9459 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that whole down trend form 1.0342 (2016 high), has completed with waves down to 0.8756. A medium term up trend should be set up to target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.38; (P) 122.66; (R1) 123.06; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 125.09 is still extending. Outlook stays bullish with 121.17 support intact and further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 125.09 will target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. However, break of 121.17 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2461; (P) 1.2495; (R1) 1.2522; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is expected with 1.2591 resistance intact. As noted before, corrective pattern from 1.2005 could have completed already. Break of 1.2428 will target 1.2886 support and then 1.2005 low. On the upside, nevertheless, break of 1.2591 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2899 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7499; (P) 0.7528; (R1) 0.7573; More...

AUD/USD's rally from 0.6966 resumed by breaking through 0.7539 resistance, and hits as high as 0.7629 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, the strong break of 0.7555 structural resistance should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should be seen back to retest 0.8005 high. In any case, near term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7455 support holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Australian Dollar rises broadly after a hawkish twist in RBA statement, which hints at earlier rate hike. New Zealand Dollar is following closely as second strongest for now. On the other hand, Dollar and Euro are under some selling pressure. Yen and Swiss Franc are mixed, awaiting more guidance from overall risk sentiment.

Technically, focus will remain on Euro as the selling has somewhat picked up. We'd reiterate that break of 1.0943 support in EUR/USD, and 0.8394 support in EUR/GBP will indicate completion of near term rebound. The development will also revive bearishness for resuming larger down trend through 1.0805 and 0.8201 at a later stage. We'll see.

In Asia, Nikkei closed up 0.19%. Hong Kong HSI is up 2.10%. China Shanghai is still on holiday. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.45%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0039 at 0.220. Overnight, DOW rose 0.30%. S&P 500 rose 0.81%. NASDAQ rose 1.90%. 10-year yield rose 0.035 to 2.412.

RBA stands pat, drop the patient stance

RBA keeps cash rate unchanged at 0.10% today as widely expected. The central bank dropped the line that "the Board is prepared to be patient as it monitors how the various factors affecting inflation in Australia evolve." It's seen as a sign that RBA is preparing the markets for an earlier rate hike.

In the forward guidance, RBA said "the Board has wanted to see actual evidence that inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range before it increases interest rates.". While inflation has picked up and further increase is expected, "growth in labour costs has been below rates that are likely to be consistent with inflation being sustainably at target."

RBA concluded, "over coming months, important additional evidence will be available to the Board on both inflation and the evolution of labour costs. The Board will assess this and other incoming information as its sets policy to support full employment in Australia and inflation outcomes consistent with the target."

AUD/CAD upside breakout after RBA, pressing 0.95

Australian Dollar rises sharply after the hawkish twist in RBA statement. AUD/CAD's strong break of 0.9460 resistance confirms resumption of whole rise from 0.8906. Near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 0.9337 support holds. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 0.8906 to 0.9460 from 0.9160 at 0.9511 will indicate further upside acceleration. Next target will be 100% projection at 0.9723.

More importantly, the current development affirms the case that medium term corrective fall from 0.9991 has completed at 0.8906. AUD/CAD could be ready to resume the whole up trend from 0.8058 (2020 low).

BoJ Kuroda: Recent Yen moves somewhat rapid

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today that recent moves in Yen exchange way have been "somewhat rapid". He added, "it's extremely important for currency rates to move stably reflecting economic and financial fundamentals."

"We will patiently maintain powerful monetary easing to support an economy still in the midst of recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic's impact," he reiterated.

"If long-term interest rates rise rapidly, we are ready to deploy such market operations," Kuroda said, referring to the intervention to cap 10-year JGB yield at 0.25%.

On the data front

Australia AiG performance of construction rose from 53.4 to 56.5 in March. japan labor cash earnings rose 1.2% yoy in February, above expectation of 0.6% yoy. Japan house hold spending rose 1.1% yoy in February versus expectation of 2.7% yoy. France industrial output dropped -0.90% mom in February, versus expectation of -0.50% mom.

Looking ahead, Eurozone and UK PMI services final will be released in European session. Canada will release trade balance. US will release trade balance and ISM services.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7499; (P) 0.7528; (R1) 0.7573; More...

AUD/USD's rally from 0.6966 resumed by breaking through 0.7539 resistance, and hits as high as 0.7629 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, the strong break of 0.7555 structural resistance should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should be seen back to retest 0.8005 high. In any case, near term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7455 support holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Economic Indicators Update

Australian Dollar rises sharply after the hawkish twist in RBA statement. AUD/CAD's strong break of 0.9460 resistance confirms resumption of whole rise from 0.8906. Near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 0.9337 support holds. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 0.8906 to 0.9460 from 0.9160 at 0.9511 will indicate further upside acceleration. Next target will be 100% projection at 0.9723.

More importantly, the current development affirms the case that medium term corrective fall from 0.9991 has completed at 0.8906. AUD/CAD could be ready to resume the whole up trend from 0.8058 (2020 low).