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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4989; (P) 1.5074; (R1) 1.5212; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first despite the strong rebound from 1.4561. Further decline is still expected as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.4561 will resume larger down trend to 161.8% projection of 1.6343 to 1.5354 from 1.6223 at 1.4476. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.3624 long term target zone. However, sustained break of 1.5354 will bring further rise back towards 1.6623 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0164; (P) 1.0218; (R1) 1.0313; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral first despite the strong rebound from 0.9970. As long as 1.0298 support turned resistance holds, larger decline from 1.1149 is still in favor to continue. On the downside, firm break of 0.9970 will target 161.8% projection of 1.0936 to 1.0298 from 1.0610 at 0.9578. However, sustained break of 1.0298 will bring stronger rebound towards 1.0610 structural resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9650. In any case, break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2776; (P) 1.2835; (R1) 1.2867; More...

USD/CAD retreated quickly after edging higher to 1.2899 and intraday bias is turned neutral gain. On the upside, break of 1.2899 will target 1.2963 resistance first. Break there will target key long term fibonacci level at 1.3022. However, break of 1.2586 will bring retest of 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7278; (P) 0.7307; (R1) 0.7351; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more corrective trading could be seen below 0.7440. But overall, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds. As noted before, larger decline from 0.8006 might have completed at 0.6966 already. Above 0.7440 will resume the rise from 0.6966 for 0.7555 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.36; (P) 115.58; (R1) 115.88; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading from 116.34 is still extending. Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9243; (P) 0.9273; (R1) 0.9296; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point and sideway trading could continue. Choppy rise from 0.8925 would still be in favor to extend higher as long as 0.9090 support holds. Break of 0.9341 will target 0.9372 resistance and then 0.9471. On the downside, however, break of 0.9090 will bring deeper fall back to 0.8925 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that the trend has already reversed and rebound the rally from 0.8756 with another impulsive move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3118; (P) 1.3154; (R1) 1.3219; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for consolidation above 1.3080 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3270 support turned resistance. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.4248 to 1.3158 from 1.3748 at 1.3074 will extend the down trend from 1.4248 to 100% projection at 1.2658. However, strong break of 1.3270 should indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248. Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would now be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In case, break of 1.3748 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0944; (P) 1.1019; (R1) 1.1149; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first despite the strong rebound from 1.0805, and outlook as unchanged. As long as 1.1120 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.1494 is still expected to continue. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1120 from 1.1494 at 1.0786 will pave they way to 100% projection at 1.0349 next. However, strong break of 1.1120 will confirm short term bottoming, at least, and bring stronger rebound back towards 1.1494 structural resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extend range trading first.

Yen and Swiss Franc are both under selling pressure following the strong rebound in global stock markets. While it's too early to conclude that risk appetite has returned from the shadow of Russia invasion of Ukraine, at least, the initial shock seemed to be digested well already. Euro is staging a strong rebound as traders would temporarily turn their eyes to ECB meeting today. Meanwhile, Dollar will look into today's CPI data for guidance.

Technically, with repeated support from 55 day EMA, it's now getting much more likely that price actions from 116.34 are mere a near term consolidation pattern. Considering the structure, an upside breakout could be imminent and break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend towards long term resistance level at 118.65. That would be a focus for today.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 3.96%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.26%. China Shanghai SSE is up 1.91%. Singapore Strait Times is up 1.34%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0150 at 0.182. Overnight, DOW rose 2.00%. S&P 500 rose 2.57%. NASDAQ rose 3.59%. 10-year yield rose 0.076 to 1.948.

Some previews on ECB, a look at EUR/CHF

A tremendous amount of uncertainty was added to ECB outlook from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There were expectations that ECB could announce an earlier end to its asset purchase program at today's meeting, paving the way for a rate hike later this year. But now, it's more likely for the central bank to keep options open for the moment.

Nevertheless, facing increasing risk of prolonged high inflation, hawks in the councils could push for at least a move to a "neutral" guidance. That could come in form of dropping the reference to a rate cut in the guidance. ECB might also remove the stipulation that rate hike would come "shortly" after end of net asset purchases.

The new economic projections would also be scrutinized while President Christine Lagarde would be asked for her views on risk of stagflation in Eurozone.

Here are some previews for today's ECB meeting:

• ECB meeting: No right choices for the euro
• ECB Preview: A Tough Balancing Act Just Got Harder
• ECB Preview – Inflation Forces the Normalisation Process to Continue

Euro is staging a strong rebound since yesterday, while gold and oil prices are in deep retreat. The situation came as markets are exiting the phase of initial shock of Russia invasion. But clearly, the clouds are still there. Today's ECB announce might give Euro some temporary volatility, but the next move will still very much depend on the development in Ukraine.

Technically, for EUR/CHF, 0.9970 is theoretically a good place to bottom. It's not unreasonable to say that the down trend from 1.1149 has ended as a five-wave move, just hitting, 100% projection of 1.0936 to 1.0298 from 1.0610 at 0.9972. Parity can also provide additional psychological support. Yet, firm break of 1.0298 support turned resistance is still needed to be the first sign of major bottoming. Otherwise, risk will remain heavily on the downside.

Japan PPI rose record 9.3% yoy in Feb, led by energy and commodities

Japan corporate goods price index rose 9.3% yoy in February, above expectation of 8.7% yoy. At 110.7, the index hit the highest level marked since 1985. That's also the highest rise on record, as led by skyrocketing energy prices. Coal and petroleum prices jumped 34.2% yoy. Electricity, city gas and water prices also surged 27.5% yoy.

Commodity prices also surged with iron and steel up 24.5% yoy. Nonferrous metal rose 24.9% yoy. Lumber and wood products rose 58.0% yoy.

Import prices rose 34.0% yoy while export prices rose 12.7% yoy.

Elsewhere

Australia consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.9% in March. UK RICS house price balance rose to 79 in February, above expectation of 73. In addition to ECB meeting, US CPI will also be closely watched while jobless claims will also be featured.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0944; (P) 1.1019; (R1) 1.1149; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first despite the strong rebound from 1.0805, and outlook as unchanged. As long as 1.1120 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.1494 is still expected to continue. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1120 from 1.1494 at 1.0786 will pave they way to 100% projection at 1.0349 next. However, strong break of 1.1120 will confirm short term bottoming, at least, and bring stronger rebound back towards 1.1494 structural resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extend range trading first.

Economic Indicators Update

A tremendous amount of uncertainty was added to ECB outlook from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There were expectations that ECB could announce an earlier end to its asset purchase program at today's meeting, paving the way for a rate hike later this year. But now, it's more likely for the central bank to keep options open for the moment.

Nevertheless, facing increasing risk of prolonged high inflation, hawks in the councils could push for at least a move to a "neutral" guidance. That could come in form of dropping the reference to a rate cut in the guidance. ECB might also remove the stipulation that rate hike would come "shortly" after end of net asset purchases.

The new economic projections would also be scrutinized while President Christine Lagarde would be asked for her views on risk of stagflation in Eurozone.

Here are some previews for today's ECB meeting:

• ECB meeting: No right choices for the euro
• ECB Preview: A Tough Balancing Act Just Got Harder
• ECB Preview – Inflation Forces the Normalisation Process to Continue

Euro is staging a strong rebound since yesterday, while gold and oil prices are in deep retreat. The situation came as markets are exiting the phase of initial shock of Russia invasion. But clearly, the clouds are still there. Today's ECB announce might give Euro some temporary volatility, but the next move will still very much depend on the development in Ukraine.

Technically, for EUR/CHF, 0.9970 is theoretically a good place to bottom. It's not unreasonable to say that the down trend from 1.1149 has ended as a five-wave move, just hitting, 100% projection of 1.0936 to 1.0298 from 1.0610 at 0.9972. Parity can also provide additional psychological support. Yet, firm break of 1.0298 support turned resistance is still needed to be the first sign of major bottoming. Otherwise, risk will remain heavily on the downside.