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As shown on the XTI/USD chart, WTI crude is trading below $57 today, with the 2025 low sitting near $55. Several factors are currently weighing on oil prices:

→ Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal — the world’s two largest oil consumers — continues to cloud the outlook for global growth and crude demand.

→ Increased output from OPEC+ members has added further pressure, with the IEA last week raising its forecast for a global oil surplus.

→ A decline in the risk premium following the peace agreement in the Middle East has also reduced support for oil prices.

So, what could happen next?

Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart

Seven days ago, we noted that:

→ In the long-term context, oil price fluctuations — following the June escalation in the Middle East — have formed a downward channel (shown in red). The current price has now slipped below its lower boundary.

→ In the short term, the pace of the decline appears to be accelerating, highlighted by the purple trajectory lines.

At that time, we suggested a scenario in which WTI could drift towards its yearly low near $55, which is now materialising. However, note the following:

→ The RSI indicator is hovering near oversold territory.

→ The chart shows signs of a Falling Wedge pattern, which often precedes a bullish reversal.

Given these signals, it is reasonable to assume that, after a roughly 10% decline since the start of the month, bears may begin locking in profits on short positions. This could trigger a technical rebound in WTI prices — potentially towards the resistance area defined by:

→ The lower boundary of the red channel;

→ The psychological level of $60;

→ The median line of the purple channel.

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Market Overview

The crypto market cap grew by 3.9% over the past 24 hours to $3.77 trillion. The decline was interrupted in the middle of the day on Friday as it approached the 200-day moving average. At this important long-term trend line, cryptocurrencies saw an influx of buyers. This could be confirmation of the prevailing strategy of buying on dips, but it could also turn out to be a temporary reload for the bears. The latter scenario will be confirmed if the market fails to exceed $3.95 trillion, the area of recent highs.

The cryptocurrency sentiment index is at 29 (fear) for the last two days, with a dip into extreme fear on Friday and Saturday. According to the logic of the index creators, a dip into extreme fear is a good buying opportunity. So far, this logic has worked, but it would have been wrong in February, as the market was under pressure until April.

Bitcoin exceeded $111K, gaining ground after dipping below $103.3K on Friday. Bitcoin was bought back when it touched its own 200-day moving average. The positive momentum may signal a real recovery in risk appetite among investors, which has been a problem for the past two weeks.

News Background

The weekly inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US was interrupted after two weeks of inflows. According to SoSoValue, net outflows from spot BTC ETFs amounted to $1.23 billion last week, the highest since the end of February. Net outflows from spot ETH ETFs amounted to $311.8 million. Over the week, about 2% of total investments were withdrawn from funds for these coins.

The market continues to be influenced by two factors: geopolitical uncertainty and the continuing impact of tight monetary policy, ‘which has not yet changed course,’ Arctic Digital notes.

80% of companies focused on accumulating cryptocurrencies are currently trading below the net value of their crypto assets, said BitMine CEO Tom Lee. The market values such companies cheaper than the cryptocurrencies they hold.

The difficulty of mining Bitcoin fell last week for the first time since June. On October 16th, as a result of another recalculation, the indicator decreased by 2.73%. The network’s hash rate, on the contrary, reached a historic high on the eve of the recalculation.

Ripple acquired GTreasury for $1 billion to integrate its blockchain infrastructure with corporate finance solutions. The acquisition of GTreasury will give the company access to a ‘multi-trillion-dollar market and customer base of major international corporations.

Gold holds within a narrow consolidation on Monday following almost 2% pullback from new record high ($4380) on Friday, driven by surprise comments from President Trump that the latest tariffs on China’s imports won’t be sustainable.

Reconciliating tones after a tough rhetoric during the past week, eased bullish pressure and sparked a partial profit taking, which resulted in the biggest daily loss since Nov 25.

However, Friday’s action closed well above $4200, significant support (the first lower breakpoint), keeping overall firm bullish structure intact and signaling that Friday’s drop, although quite significant, would mark positioning for fresh push higher.

The notion is supported by the fact that Trump’s comment should be viewed as isolated case (I was expecting him to soften his stance, as idea of adding 100% on existing tariffs would probably cause the equal damage to the US economy) as Trump aimed to threaten China over mounting problem with exports of rare earth metals, rather than imposing new taxes.

The factors that underpin safe haven demand remain unchanged, with the latest protest in the US, threatening to further destabilize already fragile political situation adding to high global uncertainty.

On the other hand, technical picture on daily chart weakens, as stochastic emerged from overbought territory, 14-d momentum is heading south and daily Tenkan / Kijun-sen turned sideways.

This warns that correction might not be over yet, but the price may hold in extended consolidation rather than attempting to dip further.

Holding above $4200 to keep bias with bulls and guard next trigger at $4162 (daily Tenkan-sen) violation of which would put bulls on hold and open way for deeper correction.

Res: 4300; 4330; 4380; 4400.
Sup: 4219; 4200; 4162; 4131.

Bitcoin rebounded sharply on Monday, regaining some footing after a two-week selloff driven by risk aversion across global markets. The recovery came as sentiment stabilized following an intense stretch of macro headwinds — including U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats on China and escalating worries over regional banks’ exposure to bad loans. Even expectations of Fed rate cuts failed to cushion the selloff.

With risk appetite showing tentative signs of recovery, Bitcoin rebounded alongside equities and other higher-beta assets. The technical picture, however, is not totally bullish.

The earlier break below 108,627 support confirmed that rise from 74,373 to 126,289 has likely completed its five-wave advance. Tentatively, price action from 126,289 is viewed as consolidations to the rise from 74,373 only.

A push above 116,074 would reinforce this view, and set up the range for the corrective pattern between 101,896 and 126,289. That would imply scope for further consolidation before another run to record highs. The structure suggests the market is resetting rather than reversing.

However, the broader trend shows signs of fatigue. W MACD continues to display bearish divergence, warning that upward momentum is fading. A break below 101,896 would put 55 W EMA (now at 96,913) in focus. Sustained move under that level would suggest a deeper correction of the entire uptrend from the 2022 low of 15,452.

AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6440. NZD/USD is also correcting losses and might recover if there is a clear move above 0.5760.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6440 and is now recovering against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6490 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
•  NZD/USD is attempting a recovery wave above 0.5700.
•  There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.5720 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair dipped from well above 0.6600. The Aussie Dollar declined below 0.6500, but the bulls were active near 0.6440 against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 0.6440, and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the 0.6612 swing high to the 0.6440 low. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6490.

The pair is now above 0.6500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement at 0.6525.

The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 0.6545. A clear upside break above 0.6545 could send the pair toward 0.6610. The next area of interest on the AUD/USD chart is near 0.6650, above which the price could rise toward 0.6680. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6720.

On the downside, initial support is near 0.6490 or the 50-hour simple moving average. The key breakdown zone could be 0.6465 and 0.6440. Any more losses might send the pair toward 0.6400.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.5800 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.5750 against the US Dollar.

The pair even dropped below the 50-hour simple moving average and tested 0.5680. A low was formed near 0.5682, and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. It is back above 0.5700 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

Besides, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.5720. The pair tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the 0.5806 swing high to the 0.5682 low.

On the upside, the pair is facing a barrier near 0.5745. The next key breakout zone sits near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 0.5760. If there is a move above 0.5760, the pair could rise toward 0.5805. Any more gains might open the doors for a move to 0.5850.

On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near 0.5730. The next key area for the bulls might be 0.5710. If there is a downside break below 0.5710, the pair could extend the decline toward 0.5680. The main target for the bears below 0.5680 might be 0.5620.

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On the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the ATR indicator with standard settings has not fallen below the 30 mark, signalling higher current market volatility compared to previous periods. Traders’ decisions are being influenced by the ongoing government shutdown, developments around a potential US-China tariff deal, and an increasingly active earnings season. Market sentiment has also been shaped by renewed concerns over regional bank stability and profit-taking in AI-related stocks.

Looking ahead, the new week is also expected to bring heightened volatility, as:

→ US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to meet in the coming days, paving the way for a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this month.

→ Attention will also turn to quarterly results from Netflix, Coca-Cola, Tesla, IBM, and Intel. With key US economic data releases suspended due to the government shutdown, investors are likely to look to corporate earnings for direction.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart

Major turning points on the 4-hour S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, highlighted in bold, outline a broad ascending channel that reflects the market’s expanded price swings.

From a bullish perspective:

→ The price remains in the upper half of the channel.

→ Market sentiment is improving, with prices moving closer to last week’s highs during the European session.

→ As indicated by the arrow, a wide bullish engulfing pattern formed near the lower boundary of the channel, confirming strong buying interest around the 6,560 level.

From a bearish standpoint:

→ Selling pressure was particularly aggressive near 6,720, pushing the price lower on 10 October.

→ Last week, this level once again acted as resistance, suggesting that bears maintain control there, limiting near-term upside potential.

Given these dynamics, traders may wish to adjust their strategies to account for the prevailing volatility. Should positive headlines emerge on US-China trade progress, supported by upbeat corporate forecasts, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could make a push towards the upper channel boundary, potentially setting a new record near the 6,800 mark.

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The yen is continuing its corrective phase, with the US dollar facing conflicting pressures. Political uncertainty in the US—stemming from the threat of a federal government shutdown—coupled with the escalation of Trump's trade wars, is creating a mixed environment for the greenback.

On one hand, the dollar continues to find support from high US bond yields and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation risks, which is limiting the scale of its decline.

On the other hand, a trifecta of factors is bolstering the yen's appeal as a safe-haven asset: signs of weakening business activity, growing US budget deficits, and heightened geopolitical tensions in Asia, particularly concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea.

An additional layer of complexity comes from the energy market. Instability and rising oil prices threaten to reignite inflationary pressures, which could force investors to reassess their interest rate expectations.

Collectively, these elements create a volatile fundamental backdrop. Short-term movements in USD/JPY are likely to be dictated by the delicate balance between the dollar's yield appeal and rising demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.

 Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

 H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair formed a consolidation range around 151.10. Following a downward breakout, the pair successfully reached its initial target at 149.38. The market has since completed a technical retest of the 151.10 level from below. The immediate scenario favours a further correction towards 149.00. Following this decline, we anticipate the start of a new growth wave, with initial targets at 151.50 and a longer-term prospect of resuming the broader uptrend towards 154.10. This outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line remains below zero and is pointing downward, reflecting sustained bearish momentum with potential for a subsequent reversal.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed an upward leg to 151.10, forming a structure that suggests the correction phase has concluded. We now expect the development of a fifth decline wave towards 149.00. After this move lower, we will assess the potential for a new upward movement targeting 151.10. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view. Its signal line is currently below 50 and trending downwards towards the 20 zone, indicating that short-term downward potential remains intact.

Conclusion

The yen's correction is set to continue in the near term, driven by a complex mix of fundamental headwinds for the dollar and safe-haven demand. Technically, the path of least resistance appears to be a further dip towards 149.00, after which the broader bullish trend is expected to reassert itself, targeting levels above 151.50.

Hello traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of Oil commodity (CL_F) published in members area of the website. OIL has recently given us a 3 waves recovery that found sellers as expected. In this discussion, we’ll break down the Elliott Wave forecast.

OIL Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 10.15.2025

OIL ended a 5-wave decline in the cycle from the 62.93 peak. Currently, the commodity is showing a recovery against that peak: wave ((iv)). We recommend that members avoid buying OIL at this stage and instead favor the short side. As our members know, wave ((iv)) usually ends within the 23.6–38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone, measured from the starting point of wave ((ii)), which in this case is the 62.93 peak. Therefore, we expect OIL to complete its ((iv)) recovery at 58.45–59.21. The price is already within the sellers’ zone, and we anticipate another leg down from this area.

OIL Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 10.18.2025

The commodity ended wave ((iv)) within the mentioned zone as expected. We got decline toward new lows as expected. The price is currently in wave ((v)) which has already reached the minimum target at 56.82-56.15. We got this target by measuring inverse 1.236-1.618 fib extension zone of wave ((iv)). However, short term structure in wave ((v)) looks incomplete at this moment. So we believe another low still can be seen before bounce takes place in OIL.

Markets

Ongoing trade tensions between the US and China and a spike in uncertainty related to US regional banks (fraud-linked) undermined risk sentiment last week. Credit tensions in Europa were temporary mitigated as old/new French Prime Minister Lecornu on Thursday survived two no-confidence votes, allowing him to work on a 2026 government budget. Even so, rating agency S&P on Friday stripped the country from its AA status, suggesting that the topic of (French) debt sustainability is here to stay. The multiple sources of uncertainty supported a solid bid for core bonds lately with US yields (temporary?) dropping below key support levels (2y 3.45% area, 10y 4% area) and markets even pondering whether there was a good reason for the Fed to consider a faster path of easing than the two additional 25 bps steps seen this year as the by default scenario. German yields also ceded some important technical levels (2y 1.9% area, 10y 2.6% area) and in a weekly perspective even outperformed Treasuries. On Friday, decent results from some other (regional) US banks and some comforting comments from President Trump on the US-Chine trade war, finally soothed sentiment going into the weekend. US yields rebounded 2 bps (30y) to 4.5 bps (5y), returning above the mentioned support levels. German yields managed to close 1-2 bps higher despite a steep initial decline. US equites finished with modest gains (0.5%). The dollar regained some ground after (bank-related) losses on Thursday. (DXY closed at 98.43 from 98.33). EUR/USD reversed Thursday’s rebound north of 1.17 to close the week at 1.1655.

Asian markets start the week on a positive note with Japan outperforming (Nikkei +2.9%). The LDP party reached a collation agreement with the Japan Innovation party (Ishin), building the case for a growth-supportive policy. Short-term Japanese yields are rising 3-4 bps (2-10-y sector). The yen shows no clear trend (USD/JPY 150.65). The eco calendar is again very thin today. European investors will look out for the fall-out from the S&P downgrade of France. After easing a few bps last week, futures suggest again some further French spread widening this morning. For now, the there is little additional damage for the euro (EUR/USD 1.1665). On interest rate markets, we look out whether last week’s lows might turn into some kind of support with the earnings season and headlines on US-China trade still potential risk factors to unsettle sentiment. For now, the dollar shows no clear momentum with EUR/USD again firmly within the 1.155/1.19 trading range.

News & Views

Rating agency S&P cut France’s rating into single A territory end last week. S&P wasn’t supposed to review France until November 28, making Friday’s decision all the more remarkable. France now enjoys an A+ rating with a stable outlook that balances rising government debt and weak political consensus against the country’s credit strengths. The rating agency said “France is experiencing its most severe political instability since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958” and added that even if snap elections would produce a clear majority there’s no guarantee for credible medium-term fiscal consolidation or economic reform implementation. It expects next year’s budget deficit to only marginally narrow from 5.4% to 5.3% and comes with the disclaimer of huge uncertainty ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. French PM Lecornu repeatedly said that bringing it back to below 5% in 2026 is key. S&P projects government debt to climb to 121% by 2028 vs 112% last year. With two (Fitch, S&P) out of the three major rating agencies now having a single A rating, some funds with strict investment criteria may be forced to offload French OATs. OAT futures this morning lose ground. Rating agency Moody’s (Aa3, stable outlook) has a review scheduled this Friday.

Chinese GDP grew by 1.1% q/q in the previous quarter, in line with Q2’s 1% and better than the 0.8% expected. The economy is 4.8% larger in y/y terms and 5.2% bigger YtD. Accompanying monthly data showed retail sales grinding slower from 3.4% y/y to just 3% but industrial activity (export) jumping to 6.5% from 5.2%. Investment dropped by -0.5% y/y YtD, a rare decline mainly caused by the ailing real estate sector. China after the data release said they remain on track to hit the 5% growth target for 2025. While the outcome was in line to slightly below expectations, markets are looking through and draw comfort from signs of easing trade tensions. They are also on the lookout for today’s start of the Fourth Plenum, during which the next 5-year plan is being worked out. China’s yuan stabilizes around USD/CNY 7.12.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1627; (P) 1.1677; (R1) 1.1705; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.1778 resistance holds. Break of 1.1540 will resume the decline from 1.1917 and target 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, through, break of 1.1778 will target retest of 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1290) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.