Sample Category Title

The Euro remains in red on Monday, although with limited downside so far, after Friday’s strong upside rejection left bearish daily candle with long upper shadow and formed a bull-trap at daily cloud top, generating initial negative signal.

Technical picture on daily chart shows MA’s in mixed setup, negative momentum and the price moving within daily cloud (spanned between 1.1600 and 1.1685) and holding above broken daily Tenkan-sen (1.1635) for the third consecutive day, lacking direction signal for now.

Traders look for fresh catalysts, such as strong recovery of gold after pullback and revived risk aversion, with focus also on release of US inflation report on Friday (if government reopens) that may generate fresh signals.

Initial negative signals are expected on break of Tenkan-sen, while sustained break below daily cloud will be bearish.

Conversely close above daily cloud top to revive bulls and lift above 1.1730 (daily Kijun-sen / 50% of 1.1918/1.1542 descend) to confirm.

Res: 1.1685; 1.1700; 1.1730; 1.1774
Sup: 1.1635; 1.1600; 1.1555; 1.1542

BTCUSD recovery extends into second straight day and cracks 111K barrier, following another strong downside rejection (Friday’s spike to 103500 zone and short-lived break below ascending 200DMA).

Double weekly candle with long tail added to recovery prospects, along with revived risk aversion and signals of potential easing of tensions between the US and China that would contribute to stronger short squeeze.

However, optimism is likely to be limited as daily studies remain in predominantly bearish configuration (strong negative momentum / MA’s mainly in bearish setup / thickening daily cloud above the price weighs).

Also, gold recovery from $4200 zone (where Friday’s 2% pullback found firm ground) picked up and rose above $4300 that may deflate Bitcoin’s recovery and contribute to formation of dead cat bounce bearish continuation pattern on daily chart.

Broken 110K level marks solid support, loss of which would soften near-term structure and generate initial signals of recovery stall, with dip below 107K /106K needed to confirm and open way for retest recent spike lows at 103K zone and unmask psychological 100K level.

Conversely, daily close above 110K to keep near-term action biased higher, with sustained break above 111K to strengthen near-term structure, although it will be a tough job to clear key barrier, presented by daily Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 112960 and 115900), break of which is needed to bring bulls fully in play.

Res: 111700; 112960; 113854; 115900
Sup: 110000, 109466; 108527; 106750

Markets

Whether one should denominate today’s global price action as outright ‘risk-on’ might be subject to debate. Most major stock market indices are trading in green. The Eurostoxx 50 even adds 1% and is only a whisker away from an all-time record. US indices open with solid gains (S&P 500 +0.65%). Japan outperforms (Topix + 2.46%) as a coalition agreement between the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) is seen removing uncertainty and opening the door for a growth supportive policy. Contrary to last week, there are no new unsettling headlines on trade tensions between the US and China. Uncertainty on potential tensions in parts of the US credit market/regional banks also subsided. Even the surprise downgrade of the French credit rating by S&P (A+ from AA-) after the European close on Friday only caused limited repricing for OAT’s (10 spread vs swap widened from 77 bps on Friday to 79 bps today). No news currently apparently allows for some kind of glass half full feeling. However, this feeling has hardly any impact on core bond/interest rate markets. German yields today are changing less than 1 bp across the curve. US yields are easing between 0.5 bp (2-y) and -3 bps (30-y). In this respect, bonds easily maintain most of the recent gains. The US 10-y yield hovers near the psychological barrier of 4%. The 2-y yield still doesn’t really know which side of the 3.43%/3.50% support area to go (currently 3.46%). No additional guidance is to be expected from Fed-governors this week as they entered the back-out period in the run-up to next week’s policy decision. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics on Friday will make an exception to the ‘publication-shutdown’ of eco data and release the September US CPI data in order to allow the calculation of the annual Social security cost of living increase. Even so, markets currently don’t see an expected rise in headline CPI (3.1% from 2.9%) as derailing the intentions of a majority of Fed governors to ease policy restriction to accommodate a weakening labour market.

On FX markets, moves in most major cross rates are limited and some kind of erratic in nature. DXY holds in the mid 98 area (98.55). EUR/USD declines marginally (1.165), but stays firmly in the 1.155/1.192 trading range with little indication on a break either side. USD/JPY also holds near the 150 pivot (currently 150.65). Japanese yields in the 2-y/10-y sector jumped 4-5 bps as the coalition agreement between the LDP and Ishin was seen as a potential support to growth. At the same time, it also removed a factor of uncertainty for the BoJ. Hawkish BoJ member Takata reiterated his support for a rate hike. For now, the direct impact of the BoJ debate on the yen remains limited. Among the smaller currencies, the Swiss franc at EUR/CHF 0.9235 is again challenging historic top levels against the single currency (except for the early 2015 spike).

News & Views

Statistics Poland released a bunch of (secondary) data today. Produces prices fell by 0.2% M/M in September to be 1.2% lower in Y/Y-terms. Apart from July (+0.5% M/M), factory gate prices have been sliding M/M since December 2024. In annual terms, producer price inflation has been negative since July 2023. The biggest September drop was recorded in manufacturing (-0.3%). Average Polish gross wages and salaries were marginally lower in September (-0.2% M/M) to be up 7.5% Y/Y. Employment levels fell slightly, by 0.1% M/M and 0.8% Y/Y. Last but not least, industrial production recovered significantly after the holiday period with the higher number of working days than in August helping as well. Industrial output surged by 16% M/M and 7.4% Y/Y. In the period January-September of 2025, sold production was 2.7% higher than in the corresponding period of 2024 (which saw an increase by 0.2%). The Polish zloty trades with a slight positive bias in today’s positive risk climate with EUR/PLN testing the downside its extremely narrow sideways trading range at 4.24.

New Zealand inflation accelerated from 0.5% Q/Q in Q2 to 1% in Q3 (vs 0.9% expected). Annual inflation rose from 2.7% to 3%, the highest level since Q2 2024. The largest contributors to annual inflation were all in the housing and housing utilities group with electricity (+11.3% Y/Y), rent (+2.6% Y/Y) and local authority rates and payments (+8.8% Y/Y). They make up 17% of the CPI basket. NZ money markets still discount a 25 bps rate cut at the November meeting, but the probability of more action afterwards fell towards just over 50% after the sticky CPI release. NZD swap rate rose by 2 to 3.5 bps across the curve. The kiwi dollar failed to profit, holding just above the recent lows at NZD/USD 0.57.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1627; (P) 1.1677; (R1) 1.1705; More…

Outlook is EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.1778 resistance holds. Break of 1.1540 will resume the decline from 1.1917 and target 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, through, break of 1.1778 will target retest of 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1290) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3388; (P) 1.3430; (R1) 1.3468; More...

Outlook in GBP/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 1.3247 will target 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142). Strong support is expected there to contain downside to complete the corrective pattern from 1.3787. On the upside, break of 1.3526 will target 1.3725/87 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could emerge from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3191) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.79; (P) 150.22; (R1) 151.05; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, below 149.37 will target 55 D EMA (now at 148.78). Sustained break there will target 145.47 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 151.38 minor resistance will argue that pullback from 153.26 short term top has completed, and bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7893; (P) 0.7916; (R1) 0.7958; More…

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 0.7984 resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.7872 will bring retest of 0.7828. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7984 will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is extending with another rising leg, and target 0.8075 again.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Global markets traded with a mildly positive tone as investors entered the U.S. session on Monday, buoyed by some optimism that the prolonged government shutdown could end within days. U.S. top White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on CNBC that a resolution was “likely to end sometime this week,” citing signals from the Senate that moderate Democrats may soon move to reopen the government after nationwide “No Kings” protests over the weekend.

Hassett also warned that if talks stall, the administration may adopt “stronger measures” to push Democrats toward cooperation. But markets appeared focused more on the potential for compromise than confrontation. His comments gave a modest lift to risk sentiment, helping equities stabilize after last week’s volatility.

Overall, investors appear cautiously optimistic but reluctant to chase risk ahead of confirmation that the US government will indeed reopen. A successful deal this week could add momentum to equities and higher-yielding currencies in the near term, while any renewed political brinkmanship might quickly unwind the fragile calm currently seen across global markets.

In forex markets, direction remained limited. Kiwi outperformed, followed by Swiss Franc and Dollar. Loonie was the weakest of the majors, trailed by Aussie and Yen, while Euro and Sterling traded largely sideways in the middle of the pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.38%. DAX is up 1.48%. CAC is up 0.15%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.025 at 4.512. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.001 at 2.585. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 3.37%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.42%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.63%. Singapore was on holiday. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.037 to 1.669.

BoJ's Takata repeats call for rate hike warns inflation risks overshooting

BoJ board member Hajime Takata reinforced his hawkish stance today, arguing that Japan has roughly achieved the 2% inflation goal and now risks overshooting it. In a speech, Takata said steady gains in wages and prices show the economy is strong enough to withstand further normalization, calling the current environment a “prime opportunity to raise interest rates.”

Takata was one of two board members who dissented at the September meeting, when the BoJ voted to keep its policy rate at 0.5%. He instead proposed a 25bps hike to 0.75%.

Citing the BOJ’s October Tankan survey and feedback from branch managers, Takata said improvements in employment and income are supporting private consumption. He emphasized that both wage and price-setting behaviors have changed materially, signaling that Japan’s economy has entered a new phase after decades of deflationary mindset.

NZ CPI jumps to 3% in Q3, hits top of RBNZ target band

New Zealand’s inflation pulse picked up in the Q3, highlighting lingering price pressures that could restrain the RBNZ from cutting rates too aggressively. Headline CPI rose 1.0% qoq, above forecasts of 0.8% and sharply higher than 0.5% pace in Q2. On an annual basis, inflation climbed from 2.7% yoy to 3.0% yoy, matching expectations but reaching the top of the central bank’s target band and its highest level since mid-2024.

Much of the rebound came from tradeable prices, which rose 2.2% yoy versus 1.2% previously, suggesting imported cost pressures are resurfacing. By contrast, non-tradeable inflation eased slightly from 3.7% yoy to 3.5%, hinting at some moderation in domestic demand.

Even so, the composition of inflation is concerning: housing and utilities accounted for nearly one-third of the total rise in the annual CPI. Electricity prices jumped 11.3%, rents increased 2.6%, and local authority rates surged 8.8%.

With these three categories making up just 17% of the CPI basket, the data underline how sticky living costs have become. For the RBNZ, which only recently delivered an outsized 50bps rate cut to counter slowing growth, this renewed inflation uptick narrows its policy flexibility.

China GDP growth slows to 4.8% in Q3, property slump deepens

China’s GDP expanded 4.8% yoy in the Q3, the slowest pace in a year but still slightly ahead of expectations for 4.7%. Even so, with cumulative growth of 5.2% over the first nine months, China remains on track to meet its full-year target of “around 5%”.

Industrial production provided a bright spot, climbing 6.5% yoy in September, up sharply from August’s 5.2% and well above expectations of 5.0%. Retail sales also beat expectations of 2.9% yoy slightly, rising 3.0% even as the pace slowed from 3.4%, pointing to modest resilience in consumption.

Yet beneath the surface, the investment picture deteriorated further. Fixed-asset investment slipped -0.5% year-to-date yoy. Property investment fell -13.9%, extending the sector’s prolonged drag on growth. Private investment declined -3.1%, marking a deeper contraction than earlier in the year, and even ex-property investment slowed from 4.2% to 3.0% growth.

The data reaffirm that while parts of the industrial economy are stabilizing, domestic demand and investor sentiment remain fragile.

Bitcoin rebounds as market panic fades, consolidations seen between 101K–126K

Bitcoin rebounded sharply on Monday, regaining some footing after a two-week selloff driven by risk aversion across global markets. The recovery came as sentiment stabilized following an intense stretch of macro headwinds — including U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats on China and escalating worries over regional banks’ exposure to bad loans. Even expectations of Fed rate cuts failed to cushion the selloff.

With risk appetite showing tentative signs of recovery, Bitcoin rebounded alongside equities and other higher-beta assets. The technical picture, however, is not totally bullish.

The earlier break below 108,627 support confirmed that rise from 74,373 to 126,289 has likely completed its five-wave advance. Tentatively, price action from 126,289 is viewed as consolidations to the rise from 74,373 only.

A push above 116,074 would reinforce this view, and set up the range for the corrective pattern between 101,896 and 126,289. That would imply scope for further consolidation before another run to record highs. The structure suggests the market is resetting rather than reversing.

However, the broader trend shows signs of fatigue. W MACD continues to display bearish divergence, warning that upward momentum is fading. A break below 101,896 would put 55 W EMA (now at 96,913) in focus. Sustained move under that level would suggest a deeper correction of the entire uptrend from the 2022 low of 15,452.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7893; (P) 0.7916; (R1) 0.7958; More…

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 0.7984 resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.7872 will bring retest of 0.7828. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7984 will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is extending with another rising leg, and target 0.8075 again.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Crude oil prices fell 0.7% on Monday after three consecutive weeks of decline. Global production is growing while global economic growth is slowing, putting pressure on prices. In addition, the risk premium on signing the gas agreement and intensifying efforts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict has begun to decline. At the same time, oil prices are far from oversold, leaving room for further decline in the coming months.

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that 418 oil rigs are operating in the US, the same as a week earlier, undermining the recovery trend seen since August. However, America is increasing production efficiency, extracting more oil from each well.

Bloomberg noted that there are now nearly 1.2 billion barrels of oil at sea, a record since the peak in 2020, when US production was at historic highs and Saudi Arabia and Russia were fighting for market share, boasting of their potential.

The current situation strongly resonates with what happened more than five years ago. The latest weekly data showed a record high in daily production in the US, with supplies of 13.64 million barrels per day.

Inventory figures are a stabilising factor. Commercial inventories in the US are at the lower end of the range for the last decade, but they were about the same in January 2020, and six months later, this figure set a new record. However, without a collapse in consumption, such rapid growth should not be expected. The US government may also move to more actively rebuild the strategic petroleum reserve sold off in 2022.

The price of oil has been in a downward channel for just over three years, and at the end of September, it accelerated its decline as it approached the 50-week moving average and the upper limit of the range. The lower limit of this range is now close to $53 per barrel of Brent, with a decline towards the end of the year closer to $50.50 against the current $61.00.

The main scenario for oil is a decline towards $50 in the next 2-4 months. At the same time, the potential for an increase in US inventories is a potential stabilising factor. We assume that the situation with inventories is roughly similar worldwide, excluding the abundance of oil at sea.