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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3276; (P) 1.3320; (R1) 1.3398; More...

GBP/USD is still staying in range of 1.3158/3373 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3373 will resume the rebound from 1.3158 to to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3423). Sustained break there will be an early sign of bullish reversal and target 1.3570 support turned resistance next. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication. Fall from 1.4248 should resume and target 161.8% projection of 1.4248 to 1.3570 from 1.3833 at 1.2736.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed at 1.4248, after rejection by 1.4376 long term resistance. That will revive some medium term bearishness and and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493. However, strong rebound from current level will revive argue that up trend from 1.1409 is still in progress, and probably ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9172; (P) 0.9213; (R1) 0.9235; More....

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, below 0.9156 will target 0.9084 support. Firm break there should confirm that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed, and suggests that fall from 0.9471 is resuming. Deeper decline would be seen through 0.8925. On the upside, break of 0.9293 will suggest that the pull back from 0.9372 is finished. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.9372.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.69; (P) 113.96; (R1) 114.36; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is mildly on the upside as rebound from 112.52 is in progress, for retesting 115.51 high. However, break of 113.12 support will turn bias to the downside, and resume the correction from 115.51 through 112.52 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2804; (P) 1.2865; (R1) 1.2896; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point and further rally is expected with 1.2762 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2963 will resume the rise from 1.2005 to 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. Sustained break of 1.3022 will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2286 at 1.3228.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7150; (P) 0.7185; (R1) 0.7249; More...

AUD/USD is still staying in range below 0.7223 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 0.7223 and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7236) will be the first sign of major bottoming and bring stronger rise to 0.7555 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 0.7081 minor support will bring retest of 0.6991 key support first. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication, and resume larger down trend from 0.8006.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Yen and Dollar are currently the weakest ones for the week, but both are bounded inside last week's range against most other currencies. The development is in line with the stock markets, where major US indexes closed higher overnight, but stayed in range too. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are currently the strongest ones for the week. The question is whether range breakouts would happen before new year, or after.

Technically, AUD/USD's rebound from 0.6992 looks set to resume through 0.7223. Break there and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7238) will be a first step towards bluishness trend reversal. At the same time, we'll also monitor the development in EUR/AUD. Break of 1.5655 temporary low will resume the fall from 1.6168. More importantly, the could open up the case for falling further towards key support zone between 1.5250/5354, with prospect of medium term down trend resumption. It would be a rather bullish sign if both happens to the Aussie.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.51%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.16%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.13%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.24%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0002 at 0.063. Overnight, DOW rose 0.74%. S&P 500 rose 1.02%. NASDAQ rose 1.18%. 10-year yield dropped -0.030 to 1.457.

Japan raises fiscal 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.2%

Japan's government slashed the current fiscal 2021 real GDP growth forecast from 3.7%, down from 2.6% as estimated in July. However, for fiscal 2022 starting April, real GDP growth forecast was upgraded from 2.2% to 3.2%. That would be the fastest growth rate since fiscal 2020 with GDP hitting a record JPY 556.8T.

"The economy has shown signs of picking up, so we must ensure the current positive momentum moves to sustainable economic recovery," a Cabinet Office official told reporters. "We have not yet reached autonomous growth but we're making steady progress to generate a virtuous cycle of growth and wealth distribution."

Silver extending recovery, Gold back above 1800

Silver's recovery continues today even though momentum remains a bit weak. A short term bottom should be formed at 21.39 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. That came after defending 21.41 support. Further rise should be seen as long as 22.17 minor support holds, to 55 day EMA (now at 23.18). Sustained break there will raise the chance that whole corrective pattern from 30.07 has completed as a five-wave descending triangle. However, break of 22.17 support will revive near term bearishness for another fall through 21.39.

Gold also strengthens mildly today and is back above 1800 handle. But it's still limited below 1814.06 temporary top. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 1781.99 minor support holds. Break of 1814.06 will resume the rebound from 1752.32 short term bottom towards 1877.05 resistance. Firm break there will also raise that chance that whole corrective pattern from 2074.84 has completed. However, break of 1781.99 will revive near term bearishness for another fall through 1732.52.

Looking ahead

US will release durable goods orders, personal income and spending with PCE inflation, jobless claims and new home sales. Canada will also release monthly GDP data.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7150; (P) 0.7185; (R1) 0.7249; More...

AUD/USD is still staying in range below 0.7223 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 0.7223 and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7236) will be the first sign of major bottoming and bring stronger rise to 0.7555 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 0.7081 minor support will bring retest of 0.6991 key support first. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication, and resume larger down trend from 0.8006.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Economic Indicators Update

Key Highlights

• Crude oil price started a fresh increase from the $66.25 support zone.
• It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near $69.50 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD.
• EUR/USD could gain pace if it breaks the 1.1350 resistance.
• The US GDP increased 2.3% in Q3 2021, more than the market forecast (2.1%).

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

This week, crude oil price started a major decline from $72.90 against the US Dollar. The price traded below the $70.00 support to enter a short-term bearish zone before starting a fresh increase.

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price even traded below the $68.00 support, the 100 simple moving average (4-hours, red) and the 200 simple moving average (4-hours, green).

However, the bulls were active near the $66.25 zone. A low was formed near $66.27 and there was a sharp upward move. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $69.50 on the same chart.

The pair settled above $70.00, the 100 simple moving average (4-hours, red) and the 200 simple moving average (4-hours, green).

The price is now facing resistance near the $73.20 zone. A close above $73.20 could start a steady increase towards the $74.50 level. The next major resistance is near the $75.00 level.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $72.00 level. The first major support is near $70.00. Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the $68.25 support.

Fundamentally, the US Gross Domestic Product report for Q3 2021 was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The market was looking for a growth of 2.1%.

The actual result was above the market forecast, as the US Gross Domestic Product increased 2.3% in Q3 2021. Besides, the GDP price index increased 6%, up from the last 5.9%.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair could attempt a strong recovery if there is a clear move above 1.1350. Similarly, GBP/USD must clear 1.3400 for more upsides.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 205K, versus 206K previous.
• US Durable Goods Orders for Nov 2021 – Forecast +1.5% versus -0.4% previous.

Silver's recovery continues today even though momentum remains a bit weak. A short term bottom should be formed at 21.39 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. That came after defending 21.41 support. Further rise should be seen as long as 22.17 minor support holds, to 55 day EMA (now at 23.18). Sustained break there will raise the chance that whole corrective pattern from 30.07 has completed as a five-wave descending triangle. However, break of 22.17 support will revive near term bearishness for another fall through 21.39.

Gold also strengthens mildly today and is back above 1800 handle. But it's still limited below 1814.06 temporary top. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 1781.99 minor support holds. Break of 1814.06 will resume the rebound from 1752.32 short term bottom towards 1877.05 resistance. Firm break there will also raise that chance that whole corrective pattern from 2074.84 has completed. However, break of 1781.99 will revive near term bearishness for another fall through 1732.52.

Japan's government slashed the current fiscal 2021 real GDP growth forecast from 3.7%, down from 2.6% as estimated in July. However, for fiscal 2022 starting April, real GDP growth forecast was upgraded from 2.2% to 3.2%. That would be the fastest growth rate since fiscal 2020 with GDP hitting a record JPY 556.8T.

"The economy has shown signs of picking up, so we must ensure the current positive momentum moves to sustainable economic recovery," a Cabinet Office official told reporters. "We have not yet reached autonomous growth but we're making steady progress to generate a virtuous cycle of growth and wealth distribution."

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