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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0394; (P) 1.0411; (R1) 1.0437; More....

Range trading continues in EUR/CHF above 1.0365 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 1.0511 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0365 will resume larger down trend from 1.1149 to 161.8% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0200 next.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is now extending. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. On the upside, break of 1.0694 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2902; (P) 1.2925; (R1) 1.2937; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current retreat, but further rise is expected as long as 1.2762 support holds. ON the upside, break of 1.2963 will resume the rise from 1.2005 to 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. Sustained break of 1.3022 will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2286 at 1.3228.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7116; (P) 0.7136; (R1) 0.7173; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.7089 minor support will bring retest of 0.6991 key support first. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication, and resume larger down trend from 0.8006. On the upside, above 0.7223 and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7236) will be the first sign of major bottoming and bring stronger rise to 0.7555 resistance.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1260; (P) 1.1282; (R1) 1.1302; More...

EUR/USD is still bounded in sideway range trading and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is still expected as long as 1.1382 resistance holds. Break of 1.1185 will resume larger decline from 1.2348. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1663 from 1.1908 at 1.0934. On the upside, firm break of 1.1382 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.1186. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1416) and above.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3221; (P) 1.3246; (R1) 1.3294; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment as range trading continues inside 1.3158/3373. On the downside, firm break of 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication. Fall from 1.4248 should resume and target 161.8% projection of 1.4248 to 1.3570 from 1.3833 at 1.2736. On the upside, break of 1.3372 will resume the rise from 1.3158 to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3423) and above.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed at 1.4248, after rejection by 1.4376 long term resistance. That will revive some medium term bearishness and and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493. However, strong rebound from current level will revive argue that up trend from 1.1409 is still in progress, and probably ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9203; (P) 0.9229; (R1) 0.9262; More....

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.9156 will target 0.9084 support. Firm break there should confirm that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed, and suggests that fall from 0.9471 is resuming. Deeper decline would be seen through 0.8925. On the upside, break of 0.9293 will suggest that the pull back from 0.9372 is finished. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.9372.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.69; (P) 113.96; (R1) 114.36; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 114.26 resistance will resume the rebound from 112.52, towards 115.51 high. On the downside, break of 113.12 will turn bias to the downside, and resume the correction from 115.51 through 112.52 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Yen dropped broadly overnight as US stocks rebounded and stays soft in Asian session. Canadian Dollar also pare back some losses as WTI crude oil recovered back above 70 handle. But overall markets are generally mixed in holiday mood. Euro is currently the strongest for the week, followed by Kiwi and Sterling. Yen is the weakest followed by Canadian and Dollar.

Technically, we'll keep an eye on the development in WTI crude oil today. It looks like retreat from 73.66 is finished at 66.46 already. Break of 73.66 will resume the rebound from 62.90 to 100% projection of 62.90 to 73.66 from 66.46 at 77.22. Such development, if happens, could help Loonie rebound further.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei rose is trading up 0.18%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.33%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.01%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.08%. Overnight, DOW rose 1.60%. S&P 500 rose 1.78%. NASDSAQ rose 2.40%. 10-year yield rose 0.068 to 1.487.

BoJ minutes: members discussed impact of Yen's depreciation

In the minutes of October 27-28 meeting, BoJ said "yen had depreciated somewhat significantly against both the U.S. dollar and the euro, mainly due to rises in U.S. and European interest rates". Members have discussed the impact of the yen's depreciation.

Some members said, "the depreciation had positively affected Japan's economy as a whole through an increase in profits from business conducted overseas and a rise in stock prices, although its effect of pushing up exports had declined."

One member said, "the effect of the depreciation on each economic entity was uneven, depending on industry and size". Another member noted, "while prices had increased recently, triggered mainly by the yen's depreciation, it was unlikely at present that heightened inflationary pressure would reduce the economic welfare of Japan as a whole."

Australia Westpac leading index rose to -0.2%, Omicron not derailing recovery

The six month annualized growth rate in Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index rose from -0.5% to -0.2% in November. The index has been in negative territory for three consecutive months, partly reflecting the lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria. Nevertheless, reopening rebounds should eventually lift growth back above trend.

Westpac said both itself and the RBA "currently believe that Omicron will not derail the recovery although the next month will determine the extent of the delay and uncertainty."

Looking ahead

UK will release Q3 GDP final and current account in European session. US will also release Q3 GDP final, existing home sales and consumer confidence.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.69; (P) 113.96; (R1) 114.36; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 114.26 resistance will resume the rebound from 112.52, towards 115.51 high. On the downside, break of 113.12 will turn bias to the downside, and resume the correction from 115.51 through 112.52 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Economic Indicators Update

In the minutes of October 27-28 meeting, BoJ said "yen had depreciated somewhat significantly against both the U.S. dollar and the euro, mainly due to rises in U.S. and European interest rates". Members have discussed the impact of the yen's depreciation.

Some members said, "the depreciation had positively affected Japan's economy as a whole through an increase in profits from business conducted overseas and a rise in stock prices, although its effect of pushing up exports had declined."

One member said, "the effect of the depreciation on each economic entity was uneven, depending on industry and size". Another member noted, "while prices had increased recently, triggered mainly by the yen's depreciation, it was unlikely at present that heightened inflationary pressure would reduce the economic welfare of Japan as a whole."

Full minutes here.

Key Highlights

• Gold price is struggling to recover above the $1,810 resistance.
• It broke a major bearish line with resistance near $1,792 on the 4-hours chart.
• EUR/USD is consolidating below the 1.1320 and 1.1350 resistance levels.
• The US GDP could grow 2.1% in Q3 2021.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This past week, gold extended decline below the $1,780 support against the US Dollar. The price found support near $1,750 before it started an upside correction.

The 4-hours chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price recovered above the $1,780 resistance level. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,877 swing high to $1,752 low.

Besides, there was a break above a major bearish line with resistance near $1,792 on the same chart. However, the price struggled to settle above $1,810 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,877 swing high to $1,752 low also acted as a resistance.

A clear break above $1,810 could send the price toward the $1,830 resistance zone in the near term. The next key resistance is near the $1,850 level.

On the downside, the price might remain supported near $1,780. The main support is near $1,760, below which there is a risk of a move towards $1,720.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair is consolidating below the 1.1350 resistance level. Besides, GBP/USD could also recover if it settles above 1.3300.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• UK GDP for Q3 2021 (QoQ) - Forecast +1.3%, versus +1.3% previous.
• US GDP for Q3 2021 – Forecast 2.1% versus previous 2.1%.